Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long‐standing quest in ecology, with ever‐increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long‐term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make
There is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesize time series of structured population models from 162 populations of 62 plants, mostly herbaceous species from temperate biomes, to link plant population growth rates (
- Award ID(s):
- 1661342
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10218446
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess currenta priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding‐window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis ,Frasera speciosa ,Cylindriopuntia imbricata , andCryptantha flava ). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding‐window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics. -
more » « less
Abstract Climate change has the potential to reduce the abundance and distribution of species and threaten global biodiversity, but it is typically not listed as a threat in classifying species conservation status. This likely occurs because demonstrating climate change as a threat requires data‐intensive demographic information. Moreover, the threat from climate change is often studied in specific biomes, such as polar or arid ones. Other biomes, such as coastal ones, have received little attention, despite being currently exposed to substantial climate change effects. We forecast the effect of climate change on the demography and population size of a federally endangered coastal dune plant (
Lupinus tidestromii ). We use data from a 14‐yr demographic study across seven extant populations of this endangered plant. Using model selection, we found that survival and fertility measures responded negatively to temperature anomalies. We then produced forecasts based on stochastic individual‐based population models that account for uncertainty in demographic outcomes. Despite large uncertainties, we predict that all populations will decline if temperatures increase by 1°C. Considering the total number of individuals across all seven populations, the most likely outcome is a population decline of 90%. Moreover, we predict extinction is certain for one of our seven populations. These results demonstrate that climate change will profoundly decrease the current and future population growth rates of this plant, and its chance of persistence. Thus, our study provides the first evidence that climate change is an extinction threat for a plant species classified as endangered under the USA Endangered Species Act. -
more » « less
Abstract Many tropical plant species show wide intra‐population variation in reproductive timing, resulting in the protracted presence of flowering and fruiting individuals. Various eco‐evolutionary drivers have been proposed as ultimate causes for asynchronous phenology, yet little is known about the proximate factors that control reproductive onset among individuals or that influence the proportion of trees producing new inflorescences within a population. We employed a nine‐year phenological record from 178 individuals of the hyperdominant, asynchronously flowering canopy palm,
Oenocarpus bataua (Arecaceae)¸ to assess whether resource‐related variables influence individual‐ and population‐level flowering phenology. Among individuals, access to sunlight increased rates of inflorescence production, while the presence of resource sinks related to current investment in reproduction—developing infructescences—reduced the probability of producing new inflorescences. At the population level, climate anomalies induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affected the proportion of the population producing inflorescences through time. Moreover, the effects of ENSO anomalies on flowering patterns depended on the prevalence of developing infructescences in the population, with stronger effects in periods of low developing‐infructescence frequency. Taken together, these results suggest that resource‐related variables can drive phenological differences among individuals and mediate population‐level responses to larger‐scale variables, such as climate anomalies. Consequently, a greater focus on the role of resource levels as endogenous cues for reproduction might help explain the frequent aseasonal phenological patterns observed among tropical plants, particularly those showing high intra‐population asynchrony.Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.
-
Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance‐adapted native annual plantsmore » « less
Abstract With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer‐than‐ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations.
Aristida oligantha , a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes. -
more » « less
Abstract Premise Changes to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual‐level responses of phenologically distinct, co‐occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology.
Methods We collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (
Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima ). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large‐scale snowmelt acceleration experiment.Results Differences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species‐specific. For our early‐season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late‐season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen‐limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early‐season species.
Conclusions Our study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual‐level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success.
