Two sessions were organized during the 2018 Fall AGU Meeting entitled, (1) Coastal Response to Extreme Events: Fidelity of Model Predictions of Surge, Inundation, and Morphodynamics and (2) Improved Observational and Modeling Skills to Understand the Hurricane and Winter Storm Induced Surge and Meteotsunami. The focus of these sessions was on examining the impact of natural disasters on estuarine and coastal regions
worldwide, including the islands and mainland in the northwestern Atlantic and the northwestern Pacific. The key research interests are the investigations on the regional dynamics of storm surges, coastal inundations, waves, tides, currents, sea surface temperatures, storm inundations and coastal morphology using both numerical
models and observations during tropical and extratropical cyclones. This Special Issue (SI) ‘Estuarine and coastal natural hazards’ in Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science is an outcome of the talks presented at these two sessions. Five themes are considered (effects of storms of wave dynamics; tide and storm surge simulations; wave-current interaction during typhoons; wave effects on storm surges and hydrodynamics; hydrodynamic and morphodynamic
responses to typhoons), arguably reflecting areas of greatest interest to researchers and policy makers. This synopsis of the articles published in the SI allows us to obtain a better understanding of the dynamics of natural hazards (e.g., storm surges, extreme waves, and storm induced inundation) from various physical aspects. The discussion in the SI explores future dimensions to comprehend numerical models with fully coupled windwave-
current-morphology interactions at high spatial resolutions in the nearshore and surf zone during extreme wind events. In addition, it would be worthwhile to design numerical models incorporating climate change projections (sea level rise and global warming temperatures) for storm surges and coastal inundations to allow more precisely informed coastal zone management plans.
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DATA-MODEL COMPARISONS OF STORM PROCESSES DURING HURRICANE HARVEY
During tropical cyclones, processes including dune erosion, overwash, inundation, and storm-surge ebb can rapidly reshape barrier islands, thereby increasing coastal hazards and flood exposure inland. Relatively few measurements are available to evaluate the physical processes shaping coastal systems close to shore during these extreme events as it is inherently challenging to obtain reliable field data due to energetic waves and rapid bed level changes which can damage or shift instrumentation. However, such observations are critical toward improving and validating model forecasts of coastal storm hazards. To address these data and knowledge gaps, this study links hydrodynamic and meteorological observations with numerical modeling to 1) perform data-model inter-comparisons of relevant storm processes, namely infragravity (IG) waves, storm surge, and meteotsunamis; and 2) better understand the relative importance of each of these processes during hurricane impact.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/kUizy8nK3TU
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- Award ID(s):
- 1661052
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10221500
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Coastal Engineering Proceedings
- Issue:
- 36v
- ISSN:
- 0589-087X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 40
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Physical processes driving barrier island change during storms are important to understand to mitigate coastal hazards and to evaluate conceptual models for barrier evolution. Spatial variations in barrier island topography, landcover characteristics, and nearshore and back‐barrier hydrodynamics can yield complex morphological change that requires models of increasing resolution and physical complexity to predict. Using the Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, we investigated two barrier island breaches that occurred on Fire Island, NY during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and at Matanzas, FL during Hurricane Matthew (2016). The model employed a recently implemented infragravity (IG) wave driver to represent the important effects of IG waves on nearshore water levels and sediment transport. The model simulated breaching and other changes with good skill at both locations, resolving differences in the processes and evolution. The breach simulated at Fire Island was 250 m west of the observed breach, whereas the breach simulated at Matanzas was within 100 m of the observed breach. Implementation of the vegetation module of COAWST to allow three‐dimensional drag over dune vegetation at Fire Island improved model skill by decreasing flows across the back‐barrier, as opposed to varying bottom roughness that did not positively alter model response. Analysis of breach processes at Matanzas indicated that both far‐field and local hydrodynamics influenced breach creation and evolution, including remotely generated waves and surge, but also surge propagation through back‐barrier waterways. This work underscores the importance of resolving the complexity of nearshore and back‐barrier systems when predicting barrier island change during extreme events.
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Abstract Meteotsunami waves can be triggered by atmospheric disturbances accompanying tropical cyclone rainbands (TCRs) before, during, and long after a tropical cyclone (TC) makes landfall. Due to a paucity of high‐resolution field data along open coasts during TCs, relatively little is known about the atmospheric forcing that generate and resonantly amplify these ocean waves, nor their coastal impact. This study links high‐resolution field measurements of sea level and air pressure from Hurricane Harvey (2017) with a numerical model to assess the potential for meteotsunami generation by sudden changes in air pressure accompanying TCRs. Previous studies, through the use of idealized models, have suggested that wind is the dominant forcing mechanism for TCR‐induced meteotsunami with negligible contributions from air pressure. Our model simulations show that large air pressure perturbations (∼1–3 mbar) can generate meteotsunamis that are similar in period (∼20 min) and amplitude (∼0.2 m) to surf zone observations. The measured air pressure disturbances were often short in wavelength, which necessitates a numerical model with high temporal and spatial resolution to simulate meteotsunami triggered by this mechanism. Sensitivity analysis indicates that air pressure forcing can produce meteotsunami with amplitudes
O(0.5 m) and large spatial extents, but model results are sensitive to atmospheric factors, including model uncertainties (length, forward translation speed, and trajectory of the air pressure disturbance), as well as oceanographic factors (storm surge). The present study provides observational and numerical evidence that suggest that air pressure perturbations likely play a larger role in meteotsunami generation by TCRs than previously identified. -
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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to coastal communities along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to their extreme wind, rainfall and storm surge. Analyzing historical TC climatology and modeling TC hazards can provide valuable insight to planners and decision makers. However, detailed TC size information is typically only available from 1988 onward, preventing accurate wind, rainfall, and storm surge modeling for TCs occurring earlier in the historical record. To overcome temporally limited TC size data, we develop a database of size estimates that are based on reanalysis data and a physics‐based model. Specifically, we utilize ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate the TC outer size, and a physics‐based TC wind model to estimate the radius of maximum wind. We evaluate our TC size estimates using two high‐resolution wind data sets as well as Best Track information for a wide variety of TCs. Using the estimated size information plus the TC track and intensity, we reconstruct historical storm tides from 1950 to 2020 using a basin‐scale hydrodynamic model and show that our reconstructions agree well with observed peak storm tide and storm surge. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating an expanded set of historical modeled storm tides beginning in 1950 can enhance our understanding of US coastal hazard. Our newly developed database of TC sizes and associated storm tides/surges can aid in understanding North Atlantic TC climatology and modeling TC wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazard along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
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Abstract. Flooding is of particular concern in low-lying coastal zones that are prone to flooding impacts from multiple drivers, such as oceanographic (storm surge and wave), fluvial (excessive river discharge), and/or pluvial (surface runoff). In this study, we analyse, for the first time, the compound flooding potential along the contiguous United States (CONUS) coastline from all flooding drivers, using observations and reanalysis data sets. We assess the overall dependence from observations by using Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (τ) and tail (extremal) dependence (χ). Geographically, we find the highest dependence between different drivers at locations in the Gulf of Mexico, southeastern, and southwestern coasts. Regarding different driver combinations, the highest dependence exists between surge–waves, followed by surge–precipitation, surge–discharge, waves–precipitation, and waves–discharge. We also perform a seasonal dependence analysis (tropical vs. extra-tropical season), where we find higher dependence between drivers during the tropical season along the Gulf and parts of the East Coast and stronger dependence during the extra-tropical season on the West Coast. Finally, we compare the dependence structure of different combinations of flooding drivers, using observations and reanalysis data, and use the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to assess significance in the differences of the tail dependence structure. We find, for example, that models underestimate the tail dependence between surge–discharge on the East and West coasts and overestimate tail dependence between surge–precipitation on the East Coast, while they underestimate it on the West Coast. The comprehensive analysis presented here provides new insights on where the compound flooding potential is relatively higher, which variable combinations are most likely to lead to compounding effects, duringwhich time of the year (tropical versus extra-tropical season) compoundflooding is more likely to occur, and how well reanalysis data capture thedependence structure between the different flooding drivers.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.waves.40
