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In response to COVID-19, many countries have mandated social distancing and banned large group gatherings in order to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These social interventions along with vaccines remain the best way forward to reduce the spread of SARS CoV-2. In order to increase vaccine accessibility, states such as Virginia have deployed mobile vaccination centers to distribute vaccines across the state. When choosing where to place these sites, there are two important factors to take into account: accessibility and equity. We formulate a combinatorial problem that captures these factors and then develop efficient algorithms with theoretical guarantees on both of these aspects. Furthermore, we study the inherent hardness of the problem, and demonstrate strong impossibility results. Finally, we run computational experiments on real-world data to show the efficacy of our methods.
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Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19
Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.
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- PAR ID:
- 10221668
- Editor(s):
- Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PLOS ONE
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1932-6203
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e0242955
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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In response to COVID-19, many countries have mandated social distancing and banned large group gatherings in order to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These social interventions along with vaccines remain the best way forward to reduce the spread of SARS CoV-2. In order to increase vaccine accessibility, states such as Virginia have deployed mobile vaccination centers to distribute vaccines across the state. When choosing where to place these sites, there are two important factors to take into account: accessibility and equity. We formulate a combinatorial problem that captures these factors and then develop efficient algorithms with theoretical guarantees on both of these aspects. Furthermore, we study the inherent hardness of the problem, and demonstrate strong impossibility results. Finally, we run computational experiments on real-world data to show the efficacy of our methods.more » « less
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Abstract The fast spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) constitutes a worldwide challenge to the public health, educational and trade systems, affecting the overall well‐being of human societies. The high transmission and mortality rates of this virus, and the unavailability of a vaccine or treatment, resulted in the decision of multiple governments to enact measures of social distancing. Such measures can reduce the exposure to bioaerosols, which can result in pathogen deposition in the respiratory tract of the host causing disease and an immunological response. Thus, it is important to consider the validity of the proposal for keeping a distance of at least 2 m from other persons to avoid the spread of COVID‐19. This work reviews the effect of aerodynamic diameter (size) of particles carrying RNA copies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). A SARS‐CoV‐2 carrier person talking, sneezing or coughing at distance of 2 m can still provide a pathogenic bioaerosol load with submicron particles that remain viable in air for up to 3 h for exposure of healthy persons near and far from the source in a stagnant environment. The deposited bioaerosol creates contaminated surfaces, which if touched can act as a path to introduce the pathogen by mouth, nose or eyes and cause disease.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics of these two groups are modeled through a coupled system of ordinary differential equations that incorporate mixing patterns of individuals from these groups, such that contact rates depend on behavioral patterns adopted across the population. Additionally, we derive the basic reproduction number, perform numerical simulations, and create an interactive dashboard.more » « less
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Background Understanding community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) is critical for disease control in the post pandemic era. The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) emerged in late 2020 and became the dominant VOC globally in the summer of 2021. While the epidemiological features of the Delta variant have been extensively studied, how those characteristics shaped community transmission in urban settings remains poorly understood. Methods Using high-resolution contact tracing data and testing records, we analyze the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the Delta wave within New York City (NYC) from May 2021 to October 2021. We reconstruct transmission networks at the individual level and across 177 ZIP code areas, examine network structure and spatial spread patterns, and use statistical analysis to estimate the effects of factors associated with COVID-19 spread. Results We find considerable individual variations in reported contacts and secondary infections, consistent with the pre-Delta period. Compared with earlier waves, Delta-period has more frequent long-range transmission events across ZIP codes. Using socioeconomic, mobility and COVID-19 surveillance data at the ZIP code level, we find that a larger number of cumulative cases in a ZIP code area is associated with reduced within- and cross-ZIP code transmission and the number of visitors to each ZIP code is positively associated with the number of non-household infections identified through contact tracing and testing. Conclusions The Delta variant produced greater long-range spatial transmission across NYC ZIP code areas, likely caused by its increased transmissibility and elevated human mobility during the study period. Our findings highlight the potential role of population immunity in reducing transmission of VOCs. Quantifying variability of immunity is critical for identifying subpopulations susceptible to future VOCs. In addition, non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting human mobility likely reduced SARS-CoV-2 spread over successive pandemic waves and should be encouraged for reducing transmission of future VOCs.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242955
