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1. Interrelated impacts of climate and land‐use change on a widespread waterbird

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13444  

   Saunders, Sarah P. ; Piper, Walter ; Farr, Matthew T. ; Bateman, Brooke L. ; Michel, Nicole L. ; Westerkam, Henrik ; Wilsey, Chad B. ( March 2021 , Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Together climate and land‐use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone.

   We leveraged three long‐term (1995–2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model‐Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM‐BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loonsGavia immerin northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use.

   The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad‐scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population‐level response to climate variability.

   We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land‐use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non‐breeding period of the annual cycle.

   Our results reveal that climate and land‐use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic‐induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

    

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2. Altered precipitation has asymmetric impacts on annual plant communities in warm and cool growing seasons

   https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00014  

   Spasojevic, Marko J. ; Homyak, Peter M. ; Jenerette, G. Darrel ; Goulden, Mike L. ; McFaul, Shane ; Madsen-McQueen, Tesa ; Schauer, Lisa ; Solis, Miguel ( January 2022 , Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene)

   While altered precipitation regimes can greatly impact biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, we lack a comprehensive view of how these impacts are mediated by changes to the seasonality of precipitation (i.e., whether it rains more/less in one season relative to another). Over 2 years, we examined how altered seasonal precipitation influenced annual plant biomass and species richness, Simpson’s diversity, and community composition of annual plant communities in a dryland ecosystem that receives both winter and summer rainfall and has distinct annual plant communities in each season. Using a rainfall exclusion, collection, and distribution system, we excluded precipitation and added water during each season individually and compared responses to control plots which received ambient summer and winter precipitation. In control plots, we found five times greater annual plant biomass, twice as many species, and higher diversity in winter relative to summer. Adding water increased annual plant biomass in summer only, did not change richness or diversity in either summer or winter, and modestly shifted community composition. Excluding precipitation in either season reduced annual plant biomass, richness, and Simpson’s diversity. However, in the second winter season, biomass was higher in the plots where precipitation was excluded in the previous summer seasons suggesting that reduced productivity in the summer may facilitate biomass in the winter. Our results suggest that increased precipitation in summer may have stronger short-term impacts on annual plant biodiversity and ecosystem function relative to increased winter precipitation. In contrast, decreasing precipitation may have ubiquitous negative effects on annual plants across both summer and winter but may lead to increased biomass in the following off-seasons. These patterns suggest that annual plant communities exhibit asymmetries in their community and ecosystem responses to altered seasonal precipitation and that considering the seasonality of precipitation is important for predicting the effects of altered precipitation regimes. 

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3. Parasite dynamics in North American monarchs predicted by host density and seasonal migratory culling

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13678  

   Majewska, Ania A. ; Davis, Andrew K. ; Altizer, Sonia ; de Roode, Jacobus C. ( March 2022 , Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Insect–pathogen dynamics can show seasonal and inter‐annual variations that covary with fluctuations in insect abundance and climate. Long‐term analyses are especially needed to track parasite dynamics in migratory insects, in part because their vast habitat ranges and high mobility might dampen local effects of density and climate on infection prevalence.

   Monarch butterfliesDanaus plexippusare commonly infected with the protozoanOphryocystis elektroscirrha(OE). Because this parasite lowers monarch survival and flight performance, and because migratory monarchs have experienced declines in recent decades, it is important to understand the patterns and drivers of infection.

   Here we compiled data onOEinfection spanning 50 years, from wild monarchs sampled in the United States, Canada and Mexico during summer breeding, fall migrating and overwintering periods. We examined eastern versus western North American monarchs separately, to ask how abundance estimates, resource availability, climate and breeding season length impact infection trends. We further assessed the intensity of migratory culling, which occurs when infected individuals are removed from the population during migration.

   Average infection prevalence was four times higher in western compared to eastern subpopulations. In eastern North America, the proportion of infected monarchs increased threefold since the mid‐2000s. In the western region, the proportion of infected monarchs declined sharply from 2000 to 2015, and increased thereafter. For both eastern and western subpopulations, years with greater summer adult abundance predicted greater infection prevalence, indicating that transmission increases with host breeding density. Environmental variables (temperature and NDVI) were not associated with changes in the proportion of infected adults. We found evidence for migratory culling of infected butterflies, based on declines in parasitism during fall migration. We estimated that tens of millions fewer monarchs reach overwintering sites in Mexico as a result ofOE, highlighting the need to consider the parasite as a potential threat to the monarch population.

   Increases in infection among eastern North American monarchs post‐2002 suggest that changes to the host’s ecology or environment have intensified parasite transmission. Further work is needed to examine the degree to which human practices, such as mass caterpillar rearing and the widespread planting of exotic milkweed, have contributed to this trend.

    

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4. Overcoming data gaps using integrated models to estimate migratory species' dynamics during cryptic periods of the annual cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14282  

   Farr, Matthew T. ; Zylstra, Erin R. ; Ries, Leslie ; Zipkin, Elise F. ( January 2024 , Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

   Environmental and anthropogenic factors affect the population dynamics of migratory species throughout their annual cycles. However, identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of migratory species' abundances is difficult because of extensive gaps in monitoring data. The collection of unstructured opportunistic data by volunteer (citizen science) networks provides a solution to address data gaps for locations and time periods during which structured, design‐based data are difficult or impossible to collect.

   To estimate population abundance and distribution at broad spatiotemporal extents, we developed an integrated model that incorporates unstructured data during time periods and spatial locations when structured data are unavailable. We validated our approach through simulations and then applied the framework to the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies during their spring breeding period in eastern Texas. Spring climate conditions have been identified as a key driver of monarch population sizes during subsequent summer and winter periods. However, low monarch densities during the spring combined with very few design‐based surveys in the region have limited the ability to isolate effects of spring weather variables on monarchs.

   Simulation results confirmed the ability of our integrated model to accurately and precisely estimate abundance indices and the effects of covariates during locations and time periods in which structured sampling are lacking. In our case study, we combined opportunistic monarch observations during the spring migration and breeding period with structured data from the summer Midwestern breeding grounds. Our model revealed a nonstationary relationship between weather conditions and local monarch abundance during the spring, driven by spatially varying vegetation and temperature conditions.

   Data for widespread and migratory species are often fragmented across multiple monitoring programs, potentially requiring the use of both structured and unstructured data sources to obtain complete geographic coverage. Our integrated model can estimate population abundance at broad spatiotemporal extents despite structured data gaps during the annual cycle by leveraging opportunistic data.

    

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5. Experimental N and P additions alter stream macroinvertebrate community composition via taxon‐level responses to shifts in detrital resource stoichiometry

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13289  

   Demi, Lee M. ; Benstead, Jonathan P. ; Rosemond, Amy D. ; Maerz, John C. ; El‐Sabaawi, ed., Rana ( February 2019 , Functional Ecology)

   Increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability are changing animal communities, partly by altering stoichiometric imbalances between consumers and their food. Testing relationships between resource stoichiometry and consumer assemblage structure requires ecosystem‐level manipulations that have been lacking to date.

   We analysed patterns of macroinvertebrate community composition in five detritus‐based headwater streams subject to experimental whole‐stream N and P additions that spanned a steep gradient in dissolved N:P ratio (2:1, 8:1, 16:1, 32:1, 128:1) over 2 years, following a 1‐year pre‐treatment period.

   We predicted that shifts in leaf litter stoichiometry would drive overall patterns of community composition via greater responses of shredders to enrichment than other taxa, as shredders dominate primary consumer biomass and experience larger consumer–resource elemental imbalances than other functional groups in stream ecosystems. Specifically, we expected litter C:P to be a significant predictor of shredder biomass given the greater relative imbalances between shredder and litter C:P than C:N. Finally, we tested whether shredder responses to enrichment were related to other taxon‐level traits, including body size and stoichiometry, larval life span and growth rate.

   Whole‐community composition shifted similarly across the five streams after enrichment, largely driven by increased shredder and predator biomass. These shifts were limited to the autumn/winter seasons and related to decreased leaf litter C:P, highlighting important links between the quality of seasonal litter subsidies and community phenology.

   Among 10 taxa that drove structural shifts, two declined while other taxa from the same functional/taxonomic groups responded positively, suggesting that specific life‐history traits may determine sensitivity to enrichment.

   Increases in total shredder biomass, and in biomass of several common shredders, were associated with lower litter C:P. Body C:P did not predict shredder response to enrichment. However, weak negative relationships between shredder response and body size, and larval life span, suggest that small‐bodied and short‐lived taxa may be more responsive to shifting resource stoichiometry.

   Moderate anthropogenic increases in N and P availability affect resource stoichiometry and can alter animal communities, influencing additional food web and ecosystem properties. We provide support for ecological stoichiometry as a framework for predicting such outcomes based on changes in the elemental composition of resource pools.

   Aplain language summaryis available for this article.

    

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