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1. Coulomb stress-based forecasting of injection-induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119677  

   Marty, S; Avouac, JP; Langenbruch, C; Curry, W (December 2025, Earth and Planetary Science Letters)

   Induced seismicity in Oklahoma and South Kansas has been widely attributed to wastewater disposal into the deep Arbuckle formation. However, the relative contributions of pore-pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress changes to earthquake triggering remain debated. In this study, we apply the Coulomb threshold rate-and-state seismicity forecasting model of Heimisson et al. (2022) to induced seismicity in the region from 2000 to 2024. Our model is informed by poroelastic stress changes resulting from wastewater injection between 1995 and 2024 and is benchmarked against existing seismicity forecast models. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the onset, peak, and decline of seismicity, demonstrating strong agreement with the observed earthquake activity in space and time. It provides robust constraints on permeability, yielding a range consistent with previously reported values. Based on the fit to the data, the model informed by poroelastic stress changes performs better. However, regardless of the assumed mechanism, both models yield similarly reliable seismicity forecasts, indicating that the choice of mechanism has a limited impact on forecasting performance. Finally, we estimate the probability of an >= 5 event occurring between 2021 and 2024 to range from 7% to 18% and conclude that seismic risk will remain elevated if wastewater injection volumes into the Arbuckle persist at similar levels in the coming years. 

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2. Surface Deformation and Seismicity Induced by Poroelastic Stress at the Raft River Geothermal Field, Idaho, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095108  

   Li, Bing Q.; Khoshmanesh, Mostafa; Avouac, Jean‐Philippe (September 2021, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract We investigate the relative importance of injection and production on the spatial‐temporal distribution of induced seismicity at the Raft River geothermal field. We use time‐series of InSAR measurements to document surface deformation and calibrate a hydro‐mechanical model to estimate effective stress changes imparted by injection and production. Seismicity, located predominantly in the basement, is induced primarily by poroelastic stresses from cold water reinjection into a shallower reservoir. The poroelastic effect of production from a deeper reservoir is minimal and inconsistent with observed seismicity, as is pore‐pressure‐diffusion in the basement and along reactivated faults. We estimate an initial strength excess of ∼20 kPa in the basement and sedimentary cover, but the seismicity rate in the sedimentary cover is four times lower, reflecting lower density of seed‐points for earthquake nucleation. Our modeling workflow could be used to assess the impact of fluid extraction or injection on seismicity and help design or guide operations. 

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3. InSAR-observed surface deformation in New Mexico’s Permian Basin shows threats and opportunities presented by leaky injection wells

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42696-9  

   Graves, E J; Rinehart, A; Grapenthin, R; Angarita, M F; Grigg, J (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Knowledge of aquifer dynamics, including groundwater storage changes, is key to effective groundwater resource and reservoir management. Resolving and accurate modeling of these processes requires knowledge of subsurface poroelastic properties and lateral heterogeneity within units of interest. Computationally demanding methods for determining lateral heterogeneity in poroelastic properties exist but remain difficult to practically employ. The InSAR-based detection of uplift over a New Mexico well with a casing breach provides an opportunity to determine poroelastic properties using a tractable 2D analytical plane strain solution for surface uplift created by a pressurized reservoir with overburden. Using a Bayesian inversion framework, we calculate poroelastic properties under deep (depth of well-screen) and shallow (depth of well-breach) conditions. We find that shallow injection is necessary to produce the observed deformation. However, pressure-varying forward solutions for uplift are required to reproduce the temporal evolution of deformation. For this we use realistic shallow poroelastic properties and well dynamics, which reflect the evolving injection conditions at the well breach as the casing further erodes. Analysis of individual interferograms or InSAR time series may provide insights into shallow subsurface heterogeneity or anomalous injection conditions at operating wells more rapidly than scheduled field inspections. 

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4. Separating Injection‐Driven and Earthquake‐Driven Induced Seismicity by Combining a Fully Coupled Poroelastic Model With Interpretable Machine Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109802  

   Hill, R G; Trugman, D T; Weingarten, M (September 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract In areas of induced seismicity, earthquakes can be triggered by stress changes due to fluid injection and static deformation from fault slip. Here we present a method to distinguish between injection‐driven and earthquake‐driven triggering of induced seismicity by combining a calibrated, fully coupled, poroelastic stress model of wastewater injection with interpretation of a machine learning algorithm trained on both earthquake catalog and modeled stress features. We investigate seismicity from Paradox Valley, Colorado as an ideal test case: a single, high‐pressure injector that has induced thousands of earthquakes since 1991. Using feature importance analysis, we find that injection‐driven earthquakes are approximately 225% of the total catalog but act as background events that can trigger subsequent aftershocks. Injection‐driven events also have distinct spatiotemporal clustering properties with a larger b‐value, closer proximity to the well, and earlier occurrence in the injection history. Generalization of our technique can help characterize triggering processes in other regions where induced seismicity occurs. 

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5. Fluid-induced aseismic fault slip outpaces pore-fluid migration

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7354  

   Bhattacharya, Pathikrit; Viesca, Robert C. (May 2019, Science)

   Earthquake swarms attributed to subsurface fluid injection are usually assumed to occur on faults destabilized by increased pore-fluid pressures. However, fluid injection could also activate aseismic slip, which might outpace pore-fluid migration and transmit earthquake-triggering stress changes beyond the fluid-pressurized region. We tested this theoretical prediction against data derived from fluid-injection experiments that activated and measured slow, aseismic slip on preexisting, shallow faults. We found that the pore pressure and slip history imply a fault whose strength is the product of a slip-weakening friction coefficient and the local effective normal stress. Using a coupled shear-rupture model, we derived constraints on the hydromechanical parameters of the actively deforming fault. The inferred aseismic rupture front propagates faster and to larger distances than the diffusion of pressurized pore fluid. 

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