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1. Distributionally Robust Optimization with Confidence Bands for Probability Density Functions

   https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoo.2021.0059  

   Chen, Xi; Lin, Qihang; Xu, Guanglin (October 2021, INFORMS Journal on Optimization)

   null (Ed.)

   Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been introduced for solving stochastic programs in which the distribution of the random variables is unknown and must be estimated by samples from that distribution. A key element of DRO is the construction of the ambiguity set, which is a set of distributions that contains the true distribution with a high probability. Assuming that the true distribution has a probability density function, we propose a class of ambiguity sets based on confidence bands of the true density function. As examples, we consider the shape-restricted confidence bands and the confidence bands constructed with a kernel density estimation technique. The former allows us to incorporate the prior knowledge of the shape of the underlying density function (e.g., unimodality and monotonicity), and the latter enables us to handle multidimensional cases. Furthermore, we establish the convergence of the optimal value of DRO to that of the underlying stochastic program as the sample size increases. The DRO with our ambiguity set involves functional decision variables and infinitely many constraints. To address this challenge, we apply duality theory to reformulate the DRO to a finite-dimensional stochastic program, which is amenable to a stochastic subgradient scheme as a solution method. 

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2. Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes

   https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1178  

   Blanchet, Jose; Murthy, Karthyek; Zhang, Fan (May 2022, Mathematics of Operations Research)

   We consider optimal transport-based distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems with locally strongly convex transport cost functions and affine decision rules. Under conventional convexity assumptions on the underlying loss function, we obtain structural results about the value function, the optimal policy, and the worst-case optimal transport adversarial model. These results expose a rich structure embedded in the DRO problem (e.g., strong convexity even if the non-DRO problem is not strongly convex, a suitable scaling of the Lagrangian for the DRO constraint, etc., which are crucial for the design of efficient algorithms). As a consequence of these results, one can develop efficient optimization procedures that have the same sample and iteration complexity as a natural non-DRO benchmark algorithm, such as stochastic gradient descent. 

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3. Learning Distributionally Robust Models at Scale via Composite Optimization

   Haddadpour, F; Kamani, MM; Mahdavi, M (April 2022, International Conference on Learning (ICLR))

   To train machine learning models that are robust to distribution shifts in the data, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been proven very effective. However, the existing approaches to learning a distributionally robust model either require solving complex optimization problems such as semidefinite programming or a first-order method whose convergence scales linearly with the number of data samples -- which hinders their scalability to large datasets. In this paper, we show how different variants of DRO are simply instances of a finite-sum composite optimization for which we provide scalable methods. We also provide empirical results that demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm with respect to the prior art in order to learn robust models from very large datasets. 

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4. A Distributionally Robust Boosting Algorithm

   https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004804  

   Blanchet, Jose; Zhang, Fan; Kang, Yang; Hu, Zhangyi (December 2019, @article{Blanchet2019ADR, title={A Distributionally Robust Boosting Algorithm}, author={Jos{\'e} H. Blanchet and Yang Kang and Fan Zhang and Zhangyi Hu}, journal={2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)}, year={2019}, pages={3728-3739} })

   Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has been shown to provide a flexible framework for decision making under uncertainty and statistical estimation. For example, recent works in DRO have shown that popular statistical estimators can be interpreted as the solutions of suitable formulated data-driven DRO problems. In turn, this connection is used to optimally select tuning parameters in terms of a principled approach informed by robustness considerations. This paper contributes to this growing literature, connecting DRO and statistics, by showing how boosting algorithms can be studied via DRO. We propose a boosting type algorithm, named DRO-Boosting, as a procedure to solve our DRO formulation. Our DRO-Boosting algorithm recovers Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) in particular, thus showing that AdaBoost is effectively solving a DRO problem. We apply our algorithm to a financial dataset on credit card default payment prediction. Our approach compares favorably to alternative boosting methods which are widely used in practice. 

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5. Non-parametric Models for Long-term Autonomy

   Acshi Haggenmiller (July 2022, none)

   In this thesis we propose novel estimation techniques for localization and planning problems, which are key challenges in long-term autonomy. We take inspiration in our methods from non-parametric estimation and use tools such as kernel density estimation, non-linear least-squares optimization, binary masking, and random sampling. We show that these methods, by avoiding explicit parametric models, outperform existing methods that use them. Despite the seeming differences between localization and planning, we demonstrate in this thesis that the problems share core structural similarities. When real or simulation-sampled measurements are expensive, noisy, or high variance, non-parametric estimation techniques give higher-quality results in less time. We first address two localization problems. In order to permit localization with a set of ad hoc-placed radios, we propose an ultra-wideband (UWB) graph realization system to localize the radios. Our system achieves high accuracy and robustness by using kernel density estimation for measurement probability densities, by explicitly modeling antenna delays, and by optimizing this combination with a non-linear least squares formulation. Next, in order to then support robotic navigation, we present a flexible system for simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) that combines elements from both traditional dense metric SLAM and topological SLAM, using a binary "masking function" to focus attention. This masking function controls which lidar scans are available for loop closures. We provide several masking functions based on approximate topological class detectors. We then examine planning problems in the final chapter and in the appendix. In order to plan with uncertainty around multiple dynamic agents, we describe Monte-Carlo Policy-Tree Decision Making (MCPTDM), a framework for efficiently computing policies in partially-observable, stochastic, continuous problems. MCPTDM composes a sequence of simpler closed-loop policies and uses marginal action costs and particle repetition to improve cost estimates and sample efficiency by reducing variance. Finally, in the appendix we explore Learned Similarity Monte-Carlo Planning (LSMCP), where we seek to enhance the sample efficiency of partially observable Monte Carlo tree search-based planning by taking advantage of similarities in the final outcomes of similar states and actions. We train a multilayer perceptron to learn a similarity function which we then use to enhance value estimates in the planning. Collectively, we show in this thesis that non-parametric methods promote long-term autonomy by reducing error and increasing robustness across multiple domains. 

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