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Title: The impact of within-vector parasite development on the extrinsic incubation period
Mosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria, have a significant burden worldwide leading to nearly half a million deaths each year. The malaria parasite requires a vertebrate host, such as a human, and a vector host, the Anopheles mosquito, to complete its full life cycle. Here, we focus on the parasite dynamics within the vector to examine the first appearance of sporozoites in the salivary glands, which indicates a first time of infectiousness of mosquitoes. The timing of this period of pathogen development in the mosquito until transmissibility, known as the extrinsic incubation period, remains poorly understood. We develop compartmental models of within-mosquito parasite dynamics fitted with experimental data on oocyst and sporozoite counts. We find that only a fraction of oocysts burst to release sporozoites and bursting must be delayed either via a time-dependent function or a gamma-distributed set of compartments. We use Bayesian inference to estimate distributions of parameters and determine that bursting rate is a key epidemiological parameter. A better understanding of the factors impacting the extrinsic incubation period will aid in the development of interventions to slow or stop the spread of malaria.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1853495 1953838
PAR ID:
10227040
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Royal Society Open Science
Volume:
7
Issue:
10
ISSN:
2054-5703
Page Range / eLocation ID:
192173
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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