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1. Integration of a polygenic score into guideline-recommended prediction of cardiovascular disease

   https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehae048  

   Li, Ling ; Pang, Shichao ; Starnecker, Fabian ; Mueller-Myhsok, Bertram ; Schunkert, Heribert ( March 2024 , European Heart Journal)

   It is not clear how a polygenic risk score (PRS) can be best combined with guideline-recommended tools for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, e.g. SCORE2.

   A PRS for coronary artery disease (CAD) was calculated in participants of UK Biobank (n = 432 981). Within each tenth of the PRS distribution, the odds ratios (ORs)—referred to as PRS-factor—for CVD (i.e. CAD or stroke) were compared between the entire population and subgroups representing the spectrum of clinical risk. Replication was performed in the combined Framingham/Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) populations (n = 10 757). The clinical suitability of a multiplicative model ‘SCORE2 × PRS-factor’ was tested by risk reclassification.

   In subgroups with highly different clinical risks, CVD ORs were stable within each PRS tenth. SCORE2 and PRS showed no significant interactive effects on CVD risk, which qualified them as multiplicative factors: SCORE2 × PRS-factor = total risk. In UK Biobank, the multiplicative model moved 9.55% of the intermediate (n = 145 337) to high-risk group increasing the individuals in this category by 56.6%. Incident CVD occurred in 8.08% of individuals reclassified by the PRS-factor from intermediate to high risk, which was about two-fold of those remained at intermediate risk (4.08%). Likewise, the PRS-factor shifted 8.29% of individuals from moderate to high risk in Framingham/ARIC.

   This study demonstrates that absolute CVD risk, determined by a clinical risk score, and relative genetic risk, determined by a PRS, provide independent information. The two components may form a simple multiplicative model improving precision of guideline-recommended tools in predicting incident CVD.

    

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2. Decompensation in Critical Care: Early Prediction of Acute Heart Failure Onset

   https://doi.org/10.2196/19892  

   Essay, Patrick ; Balkan, Baran ; Subbian, Vignesh ( January 2020 , JMIR Medical Informatics)

   Background Heart failure is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Acute heart failure, broadly defined as rapid onset of new or worsening signs and symptoms of heart failure, often requires hospitalization and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). This acute condition is highly heterogeneous and less well-understood as compared to chronic heart failure. The ICU, through detailed and continuously monitored patient data, provides an opportunity to retrospectively analyze decompensation and heart failure to evaluate physiological states and patient outcomes. Objective The goal of this study is to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among those admitted to ICUs and to evaluate combinations of clinical features that are predictive of decompensation events, such as the onset of acute heart failure, using machine learning techniques. To accomplish this objective, we leveraged tele-ICU data from over 200 hospitals across the United States. Methods We evaluated the feasibility of predicting decompensation soon after ICU admission for 26,534 patients admitted without a history of heart failure with specific heart failure risk factors (ie, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and myocardial infarction) and 96,350 patients admitted without risk factors using remotely monitored laboratory, vital signs, and discrete physiological measurements. Multivariate logistic regression and random forest models were applied to predict decompensation and highlight important features from combinations of model inputs from dissimilar data. Results The most prevalent risk factor in our data set was hypertension, although most patients diagnosed with heart failure were admitted to the ICU without a risk factor. The highest heart failure prediction accuracy was 0.951, and the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.9503 with random forest and combined vital signs, laboratory values, and discrete physiological measurements. Random forest feature importance also highlighted combinations of several discrete physiological features and laboratory measures as most indicative of decompensation. Timeline analysis of aggregate vital signs revealed a point of diminishing returns where additional vital signs data did not continue to improve results. Conclusions Heart failure risk factors are common in tele-ICU data, although most patients that are diagnosed with heart failure later in an ICU stay presented without risk factors making a prediction of decompensation critical. Decompensation was predicted with reasonable accuracy using tele-ICU data, and optimal data extraction for time series vital signs data was identified near a 200-minute window size. Overall, results suggest combinations of laboratory measurements and vital signs are viable for early and continuous prediction of patient decompensation. 

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3. Identification of Novel Biomarkers and Pathways for Coronary Artery Calcification in Nondiabetic Patients on Hemodialysis Using Metabolomic Profiling

   https://doi.org/10.34067/KID.0004422020  

   Chen, Wei ; Fitzpatrick, Jessica ; Sozio, Stephen M. ; Jaar, Bernard G. ; Estrella, Michelle M. ; Riascos-Bernal, Dario F. ; Wu, Tong Tong ; Qiu, Yunping ; Kurland, Irwin J. ; Dubin, Ruth F. ; et al ( February 2021 , Kidney360)

   null (Ed.)

   Background A better understanding of the pathophysiology involving coronary artery calcification (CAC) in patients on hemodialysis (HD) will help to develop new therapies. We sought to identify the differences in metabolomics profiles between patients on HD with and without CAC. Methods In this case-control study, nested within a cohort of 568 incident patients on HD, the cases were patients without diabetes with a CAC score >100 ( n =51), and controls were patients without diabetes with a CAC score of zero ( n =48). We measured 452 serum metabolites in each participant. Metabolites and pathway scores were compared using Mann–Whitney U tests, partial least squares–discriminant analyses, and pathway enrichment analyses. Results Compared with controls, cases were older (64±13 versus 42±12 years) and were less likely to be Black (51% versus 94%). We identified three metabolites in bile-acid synthesis (chenodeoxycholic, deoxycholic, and glycolithocholic acids) and one pathway (arginine/proline metabolism). After adjusting for demographics, higher levels of chenodeoxycholic, deoxycholic, and glycolithocholic acids were associated with higher odds of having CAC; comparing the third with the first tertile of each bile acid, the OR was 6.34 (95% CI, 1.12 to 36.06), 6.73 (95% CI, 1.20 to 37.82), and 8.53 (95% CI, 1.50 to 48.49), respectively. These associations were no longer significant after further adjustment for coronary artery disease and medication use. Per 1 unit higher in the first principal component score, arginine/proline metabolism was associated with CAC after adjusting for demographics (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.06 to 3.15), and the association remained significant with additional adjustments for statin use (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.27). Conclusions Among patients on HD without diabetes mellitus, chenodeoxycholic, deoxycholic, and glycolithocholic acids may be potential biomarkers for CAC, and arginine/proline metabolism is a plausible mechanism to study for CAC. These findings need to be confirmed in future studies. 

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4. Shared exposure liability of type 2 diabetes and other chronic conditions in the UK Biobank

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00592-022-01864-5  

   He, Yixuan ; Patel, Chirag J. ( March 2022 , Acta Diabetologica)

   To investigate whether the cumulative exposure risks of incident T2D are shared with other common chronic diseases.

   We first establish and report the cross-sectional prevalence, cross-sectional co-prevalence, and incidence of seven T2D-associated chronic diseases [hypertension, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic kidney and liver diseases] in the UK Biobank. We use published weights of genetic variants and exposure variables to derive the T2D polygenic (PGS) and polyexposure (PXS) risk scores and test their associations to incident diseases.

   PXS was associated with higher levels of clinical risk factors including BMI, systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, triglycerides, and HbA1c in individuals without overt or diagnosed T2D. In addition to predicting incident T2D, PXS and PGS were significantly and positively associated with the incidence of all 7 other chronic diseases. There were 4% and 8% of individuals in the bottom deciles of PXS and PGS, respectively, who were prediabetic at baseline but had low risks of T2D and other chronic diseases. Compared to the remaining population, individuals in the top deciles of PGS and PXS had particularly high risks of developing chronic diseases. For instance, the hazard ratio of COPD and obesity for individuals in the top T2D PXS deciles was 2.82 (95% CI 2.39–3.35,P = 4.00 × 10⁻³³) and 2.54 (95% CI 2.24–2.87,P = 9.86 × 10⁻⁵⁰), respectively, compared to the remaining population. We also found that PXS and PGS were both significantly (P < 0.0001) and positively associated with the total number of incident diseases.

   T2D shares polyexposure risks with other common chronic diseases. Individuals with an elevated genetic and non-genetic risk of T2D also have high risks of cardiovascular, liver, lung, and kidney diseases.

    

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5. A prospective cohort study of preconception COVID-19 vaccination and miscarriage

   https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/dead211  

   Yland, Jennifer J. ; Wesselink, Amelia K. ; Regan, Annette K. ; Hatch, Elizabeth E. ; Rothman, Kenneth J. ; Savitz, David A. ; Wang, Tanran R. ; Huybrechts, Krista F. ; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia ; Eisenberg, Michael L. ; et al ( October 2023 , Human Reproduction)

   To what extent is preconception maternal or paternal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination associated with miscarriage incidence?

   COVID-19 vaccination in either partner at any time before conception is not associated with an increased rate of miscarriage.

   Several observational studies have evaluated the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and found no association with miscarriage, though no study prospectively evaluated the risk of early miscarriage (gestational weeks [GW] <8) in relation to COVID-19 vaccination. Moreover, no study has evaluated the role of preconception vaccination in both male and female partners.

   An Internet-based, prospective preconception cohort study of couples residing in the USA and Canada. We analyzed data from 1815 female participants who conceived during December 2020–November 2022, including 1570 couples with data on male partner vaccination.

   Eligible female participants were aged 21–45 years and were trying to conceive without use of fertility treatment at enrollment. Female participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks until pregnancy, and during early and late pregnancy; they could also invite their male partners to complete a baseline questionnaire. We collected data on COVID-19 vaccination (brand and date of doses), history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (yes/no and date of positive test), potential confounders (demographic, reproductive, and lifestyle characteristics), and pregnancy status on all questionnaires. Vaccination status was categorized as never (0 doses before conception), ever (≥1 dose before conception), having a full primary sequence before conception, and completing the full primary sequence ≤3 months before conception. These categories were not mutually exclusive. Participants were followed up from their first positive pregnancy test until miscarriage or a censoring event (induced abortion, ectopic pregnancy, loss to follow-up, 20 weeks’ gestation), whichever occurred first. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for miscarriage and corresponding 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards models with GW as the time scale. We used propensity score fine stratification weights to adjust for confounding.

   Among 1815 eligible female participants, 75% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the time of conception. Almost one-quarter of pregnancies resulted in miscarriage, and 75% of miscarriages occurred <8 weeks’ gestation. The propensity score-weighted IRR comparing female participants who received at least one dose any time before conception versus those who had not been vaccinated was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.14). COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with increased risk of either early miscarriage (GW: <8) or late miscarriage (GW: 8–19). There was no indication of an increased risk of miscarriage associated with male partner vaccination (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.56, 1.44).

   The present study relied on self-reported vaccination status and infection history. Thus, there may be some non-differential misclassification of exposure status. While misclassification of miscarriage is also possible, the preconception cohort design and high prevalence of home pregnancy testing in this cohort reduced the potential for under-ascertainment of miscarriage. As in all observational studies, residual or unmeasured confounding is possible.

   This is the first study to evaluate prospectively the relation between preconception COVID-19 vaccination in both partners and miscarriage, with more complete ascertainment of early miscarriages than earlier studies of vaccination. The findings are informative for individuals planning a pregnancy and their healthcare providers.

   This work was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute of Health [R01-HD086742 (PI: L.A.W.); R01-HD105863S1 (PI: L.A.W. and M.L.E.)], the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R03-AI154544; PI: A.K.R.), and the National Science Foundation (NSF-1914792; PI: L.A.W.). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. L.A.W. is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc. She also receives in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics (Clearblue home pregnancy tests) and Kindara.com (fertility apps). M.L.E. received consulting fees from Ro, Hannah, Dadi, VSeat, and Underdog, holds stock in Ro, Hannah, Dadi, and Underdog, is a past president of SSMR, and is a board member of SMRU. K.F.H. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from UCB and Takeda, unrelated to this study. S.H.-D. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from Takeda, unrelated to this study, and a methods consultant for UCB and Roche for unrelated drugs. The authors report no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.

   N/A.

    

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