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Abstract With continued fossil‐fuel dependence, anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia are projected to increase until the mid‐21st century along with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Large Ensemble, we quantify the influence of aerosols and GHGs on South Asian seasonal precipitation patterns over the 21st century under a very high‐emissions (RCP 8.5) trajectory. We find that increasing local aerosol concentrations could continue to suppress precipitation over South Asia in the near‐term, delaying the emergence of precipitation increases in response to GHGs by several decades in the monsoon season and a decade in the post‐monsoon season. Emergence of this wetting signal is expected in both seasons by the mid‐21st century. Our results demonstrate that the trajectory of local aerosols together with GHGs will shape near‐future precipitation patterns over South Asia. Therefore, constraining precipitation response to different trajectories of both forcers is critical for informing near‐term adaptation efforts.
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Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades
Abstract The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1947282
- PAR ID:
- 10233259
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 6911 to 6927
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1001.1
