skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions
South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1634774 9986757 1755125
PAR ID:
10237349
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Volume:
7
Issue:
23
ISSN:
2375-2548
Page Range / eLocation ID:
eabg3848
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Speleothem CaCO3δ18O is a commonly employed paleomonsoon proxy. However, inferring local rainfall amount from speleothem δ18O can be complicated due to changing source water δ18O, temperature effects, and rainout over the moisture transport path. These complications are addressed using δ18O of planktonic foraminiferal CaCO3, offshore from the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The advantage is that the effects of global seawater δ18O and local temperature changes can be quantitatively removed, yielding a record of local seawater δ18O, a proxy that responds primarily to dilution by local precipitation and runoff. Whereas YRV speleothem δ18O is dominated by precession-band (23 ky) cyclicity, local seawater δ18O is dominated by eccentricity (100 ky) and obliquity (41 ky) cycles, with almost no precession-scale variance. These results, consistent with records outside the YRV, suggest that East Asian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive to greenhouse gas and high-latitude ice sheet forcing than to direct insolation forcing. 
    more » « less
  2. Greenland stadials and interstadials (GS/GI) were millennial climate oscillations during the last glacial period that were originally identified in Greenland ice cores but that have been correlated with environmental change around much of the globe, including in monsoon regimes, with enhanced monsoon rainfall coincident with North Atlantic warming. Hydroclimate variability associated with GS/GI have been investigated in detail using terrestrial (primarily oxygen isotopes in stalagmites) and marine records, particularly for the Southeast Asian monsoon. However, a considerably smaller number of terrestrial records preserve these events in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the primary water source for ~2 billion people across South Asia. Here we present the first glacial-age speleothem stable isotope time series from Nepal, located in the ISM regime. UK-1 is a 187 mm tall aragonite stalagmite from the Pokhara Valley of central Nepal, ~150 km west of Kathmandu. The chronology of UK-1, which was established by 8 U/Th dates, all of which fall in stratigraphic order (within the errors), reveals continuous growth from 34,350-31,500 yr BP (Marine Isotope Stage 3); age uncertainties average ±84 yr. Stable isotope samples were measured every 1 mm, corresponding to a temporal resolution of 18 yr. Oxygen isotope ratios range from -5.6‰ to -7.6‰, and share the same timing and structure as Greenland (inter)stadials GS/GI 6 and 5.2 in the NGRIP record. We interpret this as reflecting an amount effect response to a strengthened ISM driven by more (less) poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone during periods of northern hemisphere warming (cooling). This clear millennial signal in UK-1 is a somewhat unexpected result given that amount effects in oxygen isotopes in precipitation are weak (R^2=0.1) in this area today. UK-1 carbon isotope ratios range from -3‰ to -6‰ (excluding a small number of negative spikes) and exhibit variability coarsely similar to the NGRIP record, with lower (higher) values generally corresponding to GI (GS), possibly due to prior calcite precipitation in voids above the cave concomitant with changes in precipitation. Some periods of antiphasing between carbon and oxygen are also apparent and may reflect flushing of soil carbon dioxide during particularly wet phases. 
    more » « less
  3. In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens1,2,3. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a strengthening of monsoon circulation4,5,6, posing a challenge to understanding the response of the South Asian summer monsoon to warming. Here we show consistent South Asian summer monsoon changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene and future scenarios, characterized by an overall increase in monsoon rainfall, a weakening of the monsoon trough-like circulation over the Bay of Bengal and a strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the northern Arabian Sea, as revealed by a compilation of proxy records and climate simulations. Increased monsoon rainfall is thermodynamically dominated by atmospheric moisture following the rich-get-richer paradigm, and dynamically dominated by the monsoon circulation driven by the enhanced land warming in subtropical western Eurasia and northern Africa. The coherent response of monsoon dynamics across warm climates reconciles past strengthening with future weakening, reinforcing confidence in future projections. Further prediction of South Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall by physics-based regression models using past information agrees well with climate model projections, with spatial correlation coefficients of approximately 0.8 and 0.7 under the high-emissions scenario. These findings underscore the promising potential of past analogues, bolstered by palaeoclimate reconstruction, in improving future South Asian summer monsoon projections. 
    more » « less
  4. Over the late Holocene, a variety of hydroclimate-sensitive proxies have identified substantial, multidecadal changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation, the most prominent of which is the “4.2 ka event”. This interval, dated to ~4.2-3.9 ka, is associated with severe droughts across South Asia that are linked to societal change. Given the absence of the 4.2 ka event in polar records, the 4.2 ka event is generally associated with low latitude forcings, but no clear consensus on its origins has been reached. We investigated the ISM response to the 4.2 ka event through analysis of aragonite stalagmites from Siddha cave, formed in the lower Paleozoic Dhading dolomite in the Pokhara Valley of central Nepal (28.0˚N, 84.1˚E; ~850 m.a.s.l.). The climate of this region is dominated by small monthly variations in air temperature (21±5˚C) but strong precipitation seasonality associated with the ISM: ~80% of the annual 3900 mm of rainfall occurs between June and September. High uranium and low detrital thorium abundances in these stalagmites yield precise U/Th ages that all fall within stratigraphic order. These dates reveal continuous growth from 4.30-2.26 ka, interrupted only by a hiatus from 3.27-3.10 ka. Overlap with coeval aragonite stalagmites reveals generally consistent trends in carbon and oxygen isotope ratios, suggesting that these stalagmites reflect environmental variability and not secondary (e.g., kinetic) effects. Many stalagmite-based paleomonsoon reconstructions rely on oxygen isotope ratios, which track amount effects in regional rainfall. However, our on-going rainwater collection and analysis program, as well as a previous study conducted in Kathmandu, 120 km the east of Siddha cave, reveals that amount effects in precipitation are weak in this region, particularly during the monsoon season, and thus we rely instead on carbon isotope ratios, which have been demonstrated to track site-specific effective precipitation. Siddha cave stalagmite carbon isotopes, in contrast to other South Asian proxy records, indicate that ISM rainfall increased at Siddha cave from 4.13-3.91 ka. As a further test of this result, we analyzed uranium abundances in the section spanning 4.3-3.4 ka. Uranium serves as an indicator of prior aragonite precipitation and thus of hydroclimate, and like carbon isotopes, suggests increased ISM rainfall coincident with the 4.2 ka event. This precipitation anomaly is nearly identical in timing and structure but anti-phased with stalagmites from Mawmluh cave, northeastern India. We investigated the climatic origins of this precipitation dipole using observational data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) products. Preliminary spatial composites suggest that large precipitation differences between Mawmluh and Siddha caves are associated with SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Additionally, superposed Epoch Analysis shows relatively rapid eastern Indian Ocean cooling during the summer monsoon season coeval with large precipitation differences between these sites. Our findings lend support to a tropical Indo-Pacific origin of the 4.2 ka event. 
    more » « less
  5. The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is located in northern China, a region climatically dominated by the East Asian monsoon. Speleothem records from this region are crucial to fully understand the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and reconcile the disparity seen between loess records and speleothem δ18O records for the EASM. Here, we present an absolutely dated stalagmite isotope record spanning most of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to MIS 3 from Xiaotian Cave, southeast CLP. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record is dominated by precessional variations and punctuated by notable millennial‐scale oscillations; in particular, the δ18O values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a were in the same range, consistent with other speleothem δ18O records from the EASM region within quoted errors, verifying the difference between speleothem δ18O and loess records (e.g. magnetic susceptibility) and the proposition that those two archives may record different aspects of the EASM changes. The similar values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a observed from the speleothem δ18O records in EASM regions, incompatible with the relatively higher North Hemisphere Summer Insolation (NHSI) during MIS 5e, were probably caused by an equivalent or even increased contribution of 18O‐enriched moisture from the South China Sea and North Pacific, implying that an El Niño‐like state existed during MIS 5e. The Xiaotian δ18O values increased abruptly at ~121.7 thousand years (kyr) before the present (bp, present refers to ad 1950), consistent with the trend seen in previously reported Chinese speleothem δ18O records, indicating an abrupt regime shift in atmospheric circulations or hydroclimate conditions in the Asian monsoon systems. It cannot be definitely ruled out that an increase in sea ice extent in the northern North Atlantic, responding to a decrease of NHSI, reached a threshold to have led to abrupt changes in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) through rapid shifts in the position of circulation of the westerlies and/or in the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here, we hypothesized that sea surface cooling in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean caused by the decreased summer insolation reached a threshold that eventually resulted in an abrupt shift to more positive precipitation δ18O, either through weakened convection over the tropical ocean, or through abrupt shifts in moisture transport and cycling of tropical moisture sources for the ASM. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record also shows centennial‐scale variability with amplitude up to 3‰ within MIS 5e. These changes are similar to variations recorded by the speleothem δ18O record from Tianmen Cave on the south‐central Tibetan Plateau and Shangxiaofeng Cave in Shandong Province, northern China, suggesting a heightened sensitivity of precipitation δ18O to climate changes at the marginal zone of the ASM even during the warm and humid MIS 5e interglacial. Climatic oscillations during MIS 5e appear to be comparable to those typical of the Holocene, implying rather unstable climate conditions during the Last Interglacial. 
    more » « less