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Orbital‐scale Indian Summer Monsoon variability is often interpreted as a direct response to northern hemisphere summer insolation. Here we present a continuous (0–640 kyr) orbital scale precipitation isotope (δD_precip) record using leaf wax δD from the core monsoon zone of India. The δD_preciprecord is quantitatively coherent with, and δD_precipminima in phase with, greenhouses gas maxima, and ice volume minima across all orbital bands. The δD_preciprecord is also coherent and in phase with the two existing orbital‐scale Indian speleothem δ¹⁸O records, demonstrating a consistent regional response among independent proxies. These findings preclude interpretation of Indian precipitation isotope records as a direct response to northern hemisphere summer insolation. Rather, they dominantly reflect changes in moisture source and transport paths associated with changes in greenhouse gases and ice volume. The orbital‐scale precipitation isotope responses of the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems are uncoupled and are driven by different forcings.

 

Speleothem CaCO₃δ¹⁸O is a commonly employed paleomonsoon proxy. However, inferring local rainfall amount from speleothem δ¹⁸O can be complicated due to changing source water δ¹⁸O, temperature effects, and rainout over the moisture transport path. These complications are addressed using δ¹⁸O of planktonic foraminiferal CaCO₃, offshore from the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The advantage is that the effects of global seawater δ¹⁸O and local temperature changes can be quantitatively removed, yielding a record of local seawater δ¹⁸O, a proxy that responds primarily to dilution by local precipitation and runoff. Whereas YRV speleothem δ¹⁸O is dominated by precession-band (23 ky) cyclicity, local seawater δ¹⁸O is dominated by eccentricity (100 ky) and obliquity (41 ky) cycles, with almost no precession-scale variance. These results, consistent with records outside the YRV, suggest that East Asian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive to greenhouse gas and high-latitude ice sheet forcing than to direct insolation forcing.

 

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.