skip to main content


Title: Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models
Abstract

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed toCDVduring outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics ofCDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three mainCDVoutbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed toCDVprior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short.CDVcirculates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within theGYEcarnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10238172
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Ecology and Evolution
Volume:
8
Issue:
17
ISSN:
2045-7758
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 8726-8735
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Migration is an adaptive life‐history strategy across taxa that helps individuals maximise fitness by obtaining forage and avoiding predation risk. The mechanisms driving migratory changes are poorly understood, and links between migratory behaviour, space use, and demographic consequences are rare.

    Here, we use a nearly 20‐year record of individual‐based monitoring of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) to test hypotheses for changing patterns of migration in and adjacent to a large protected area in Banff National Park (BNP), Canada.

    We test whether bottom‐up (forage quality) or top‐down (predation risk) factors explained trends in (i) the proportion of individuals using 5 different migratory tactics, (ii) differences in survival rates of migratory tactics during migration and whilst on summer ranges, (iii) cause‐specific mortality by wolves and grizzly bears, and (iv) population abundance.

    We found dramatic shifts in migration consistent with behavioural plasticity in individual choice of annual migratory routes. Shifts were inconsistent with exposure to the bottom‐up benefits of migration. Instead, exposure to landscape gradients in predation risk caused by exploitation outside the protected area drove migratory shifts. Carnivore exploitation outside the protected area led to higher survival rates for female elk remaining resident or migrating outside the protected area.

    Cause‐specific mortality aligned with exposure to predation risk along migratory routes and summer ranges. Wolf predation risk was higher on migratory routes than summer ranges of montane‐migrant tactics, but wolf predation risk traded‐off with heightened risk from grizzly bears on summer ranges. A novel eastern migrant tactic emerged following a large forest fire that enhanced forage in an area with lower predation risk outside of the protected area.

    The changes in migratory behaviour translated to population abundance, where abundance of the montane‐migratory tactics declined over time. The presence of diverse migratory life histories maintained a higher total population abundance than would have been the case with only one migratory tactic in the population.

    Our study demonstrates the complex ways in which migratory populations change over time through behavioural plasticity and associated demographic consequences because of individuals balancing predation risk and forage trade‐offs.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Pleistocene diversity was much higher than today, for example there were three distinct wolf morphotypes (dire, gray, Beringian) in North America versus one today (gray). Previous fossil evidence suggested that these three groups overlapped ecologically, but split the landscape geographically. The Natural Trap Cave (NTC) fossil site in Wyoming,USAis an ideally placed late Pleistocene site to study the geographical movement of species from northern to middle North America before, during, and after the last glacial maximum. Until now, it has been unclear what type of wolf was present atNTC. We analyzed morphometrics of three wolf groups (dire, extant North American gray, Alaskan Beringian) to determine which wolves were present atNTCand what this indicates about wolf diversity and migration in Pleistocene North America. Results showNTCwolves group with Alaskan Beringian wolves. This provides the first morphological evidence for Beringian wolves in mid‐continental North America. Their location atNTCand their radiocarbon ages suggest that they followed a temporary channel through the glaciers. Results suggest high levels of competition and diversity in Pleistocene North American wolves. The presence of mid‐continental Beringian morphotypes adds important data for untangling the history of immigration and evolution ofCanisin North America.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Toxoplasma gondiiis a protozoan parasite capable of infecting any warm-blooded species and can increase risk-taking in intermediate hosts. Despite extensive laboratory research on the effects ofT. gondiiinfection on behaviour, little is understood about the effects of toxoplasmosis on wild intermediate host behavior. Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA, has a diverse carnivore community including gray wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor), intermediate and definitive hosts ofT. gondii, respectively. Here, we used 26 years of wolf behavioural, spatial, and serological data to show that wolf territory overlap with areas of high cougar density was an important predictor of infection. In addition, seropositive wolves were more likely to make high-risk decisions such as dispersing and becoming a pack leader, both factors critical to individual fitness and wolf vital rates. Due to the social hierarchy within a wolf pack, we hypothesize that the behavioural effects of toxoplasmosis may create a feedback loop that increases spatial overlap and disease transmission between wolves and cougars. These findings demonstrate that parasites have important implications for intermediate hosts, beyond acute infections, through behavioural impacts. Particularly in a social species, these impacts can surge beyond individuals to affect groups, populations, and even ecosystem processes.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Background Global increases in human activity threaten connectivity of animal habitat and populations. Protection and restoration of wildlife habitat and movement corridors require robust models to forecast the effects of human activity on movement behaviour, resource selection, and connectivity. Recent research suggests that animal resource selection and responses to human activity depend on their behavioural movement state, with increased tolerance for human activity in fast states of movement. Yet, few studies have incorporated state-dependent movement behaviour into analyses of Merriam connectivity, that is individual-based metrics of connectivity that incorporate landscape structure and movement behaviour. Methods We assessed the cumulative effects of anthropogenic development on multiple movement processes including movement behaviour, resource selection, and Merriam connectivity. We simulated movement paths using hidden Markov movement models and step selection functions to estimate habitat use and connectivity for three landscape scenarios: reference conditions with no anthropogenic development, current conditions, and future conditions with a simulated expansion of towns and recreational trails. Our analysis used 20 years of grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) and gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) movement data collected in and around Banff National Park, Canada. Results Carnivores increased their speed of travel near towns and areas of high trail and road density, presumably to avoid encounters with people. They exhibited stronger avoidance of anthropogenic development when foraging and resting compared to travelling and during the day compared to night. Wolves exhibited stronger avoidance of anthropogenic development than grizzly bears. Current development reduced the amount of high-quality habitat between two mountain towns by more than 35%. Habitat degradation constrained movement routes around towns and was most pronounced for foraging and resting behaviour. Current anthropogenic development reduced connectivity from reference conditions an average of 85%. Habitat quality and connectivity further declined under a future development scenario. Conclusions Our results highlight the cumulative effects of anthropogenic development on carnivore movement behaviour, habitat use, and connectivity. Our strong behaviour-specific responses to human activity suggest that conservation initiatives should consider how proposed developments and restoration actions would affect where animals travel and how they use the landscape. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Large carnivores were persecuted in Yellowstone National Park, WY, USA, during the late 1800s and early 1900s, leading to extirpation of grey wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor). Soon thereafter increased herbivory of riparian plant communities by Rocky Mountain Elk (Cervus elaphus) became widespread in the park's northern ungulate winter range or “northern range.” Wolves were reintroduced in 1995–1996, again completing the park's large carnivore guild. In 2004 and 2017, we sampled Geyer willow (Salix geyeriana), a commonly occurring tall willow, along the West and East Forks of Blacktail Deer Creek in the central portion of the northern range. Results indicated high levels of elk herbivory in the 1990s, as in previous decades, not only continued to keep willows short, generally ≤52 cm in height, but also resulted in stream widening and incision, leading to “oversized” channel cross‐sections and a drastically reduced frequency of overbank flows. However, by 2017, willow heights ≥200 cm ( = 310 cm) were prevalent, and canopy cover over the stream, essentially absent in 1995, had increased to 43% and 93% along the West Fork and East Fork, respectively. These recent increases in tall willow heights, greater canopy cover, well‐vegetated streambanks, and the recent development of an inset floodplain all pointed towards a riparian/aquatic ecosystem beginning to recover. Overall, results were consistent with a landscape‐scale trophic cascade, whereby reintroduced wolves, operating in concert with other large carnivores, appear to have sufficiently reduced elk herbivory in riparian areas to initiate the recovery of Blacktail Deer Creek's riparian plant communities and stream channels.

     
    more » « less