skip to main content


Title: Hydrogeological response to climate change in alpine hillslopes
Abstract

Climate change threatens water resources in snowmelt‐dependent regions by altering the fraction of snow and rain and spurring an earlier snowmelt season. The bulk of hydrological research has focused on forecasting response in streamflow volumes and timing to a shrinking snowpack; however, the degree to which subsurface storage offsets the loss of snow storage in various alpine geologic settings, i.e. the hydrogeologic buffering capacity, is still largely unknown. We address this research need by assessing the affects of climate change on storage and runoff generation for two distinct hydrogeologic settings present in alpine systems: a low storage granitic and a greater storage volcanic hillslope. We use a physically based integrated hydrologic model fully coupled to a land surface model to run a base scenario and then three progressive warming scenarios, and account for the shifts in each component of the water budget. For hillslopes with greater water retention, the larger storage volcanic hillslope buffered streamflow volumes and timing, but at the cost of greater reductions in groundwater storage relative to the low storage granite hillslope. We found that the results were highly sensitive to the unsaturated zone retention parameters, which in the case of alpine systems can be a mix of matrix or fracture flow. The presence of fractures and thus less retention in the unsaturated zone significantly decreased the reduction in recharge and runoff for the volcanic hillslope in climate warming scenarios. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating physically based subsurface flow in to alpine hydrology models, and our findings provide ways forward to arrive at a conceptual model that is both consistent with geology and hydrologic principles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10238461
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Hydrological Processes
Volume:
30
Issue:
18
ISSN:
0885-6087
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 3126-3138
Size(s):
["p. 3126-3138"]
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    The seasonal snowmelt period is a critical component of the hydrologic cycle for many mountainous areas. Changes in the timing and rate of snowmelt as a result of physical hydrologic flow paths, such as longitudinal intra‐snowpack flow paths, can have strong implications on the partitioning of meltwater amongst streamflow, groundwater recharge, and soil moisture storage. However, intra‐snowpack flow paths are highly spatially and temporally variable and thus difficult to observe. This study utilizes new methods to non‐destructively observe spatio‐temporal changes in the liquid water content of snow in combination with plot experiments to address the research question: What is the scale of influence that intra‐snowpack flow paths have on the downslope movement of liquid water during snowmelt across an elevational gradient? This research took place in northern Colorado with study plots spanning from the rain‐snow transition zone up to the high alpine. Results indicate an increasing scale of influence from intra‐snowpack flow paths with elevation, showing higher hillslope connectivity producing larger intra‐snowpack contributing areas for meltwater accumulation, quantified as the upslope contributing area required to produce observed changes in liquid water content from melt rate estimates. The total effective intra‐snowpack contributing area of accumulating liquid water was found to be 17, 6, and 0 m2for the above tree line, near tree line, and below tree line plots, respectively. Dye tracer experiments show capillary and permeability barriers result in increased number and thickness of intra‐snowpack flow paths at higher elevations. We additionally utilized aerial photogrammetry in combination with ground penetrating radar surveys to investigate the role of this hydrologic process at the small watershed scale. Results here indicate that intra‐snowpack flow paths have influence beyond the plot scale, impacting the storage and transmission of liquid water within the snowpack at the small watershed scale.

     
    more » « less
  2. High elevation mountain watersheds are undergoing rapid warming and declining snow fractions worldwide, causing earlier and quicker snowmelt. Understanding how this hydrologic shift affects subsurface flow paths, biogeochemical reactions, and solute export has been challenging due to the entanglement of hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Coal Creek, a high-elevation catchment (2,700 3,700 m, 53 km2) in Colorado, is experiencing a higher rate of warming than surrounding low-lying areas. This warming corresponds with dynamic and increased responses from biogenic solutes and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), whereas the behavior of geogenic solutes and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) has remained relatively unchanged. DOC has experienced the largest concentration increase (>3x), with annual average flow weighted concentrations positively correlated to average annual temperature. This suggests temperature is the main driver of increasing DOC levels. Although DOC and DIC response to warming is influenced by many drivers, the relative contribution of each remains unknown. DOC and DIC were analyzed to incorporate both carbon component products of soil respiration (DOC and CO2) and to represent high solute concentrations transported by shallow (DOC) versus deep (DIC) subsurface flow. The contrasting behavior of these carbon solutes indicates climate change and warming are driving changes in organic matter decomposition and soil respiration. Modeling results from the process-based model HBV-BioRT show increased temperatures cause earlier snowmelt and streamflow generation and lower peak discharge. As stream flow generation occurs earlier, so do DOC flushing and DIC dilution events. Additionally, post-snowmelt periods show greater DOC production and concentrations under warming scenarios. Results indicated increased production of DOC in post-snowmelt periods. DOC is then flushed out by earlier snowmelt partitioned through the shallow soil zone. Most process-based studies lack a watershed-scale understanding of carbon transformation and flow path alterations. This work demonstrates complex hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling at the watershed scale to illustrate how water flow paths and chemistry are responding to a changing climate in highelevation mountain watersheds. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Snow dominated mountainous karst watersheds are the primary source of water supply in many areas in the western U.S. and worldwide. These watersheds are typically characterized by complex terrain, spatiotemporally varying snow accumulation and melt processes, and duality of flow and storage dynamics because of the juxtaposition of matrix (micropores and small fissures) and karst conduits. As a result, predicting streamflow from meteorological inputs has been challenging due to the inability of physically based or conceptual hydrologic models to represent these unique characteristics. We present a hybrid modeling approach that integrates a physically based, spatially distributed, snow model with a deep learning karst model. More specifically, the high‐resolution snow model captures spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt, and the deep learning model simulates the corresponding response of streamflow as influenced by complex surface and subsurface properties. The deep learning model is based on the Convolutional Long Short‐Term Memory (ConvLSTM) architecture capable of handling spatiotemporal recharge patterns and watershed storage dynamics. The hybrid modeling approach is tested on a watershed in northern Utah with seasonal snow cover and variably karstified carbonate bedrock. The hybrid models were able to simulate streamflow at the watershed outlet with high accuracy. The spatial and temporal recharge and discharge patterns learned by the ConvLSTM model were then examined and compared with known hydrogeologic information. Results suggest that ConvLSTM simulates streamflow with higher accuracy than reference models for the study area and provides insight into spatially influenced hydrologic responses that are unavailable within lumped modeling approaches.

     
    more » « less
  4. Long-term snowpack decline is among the best-understood impacts of climate change on water resources systems. This trend has been observed for decades and is projected to continue even in climate projections in which total runoff volumes do not change significantly. For basins in which snowpack has historically provided intra-annual water storage, snowpack decline creates several issues that may require adaptation to infrastructure, operations, or both. This study develops an approach to analyze vulnerabilities and adaptations specifically focused on the challenge of snowpack decline, using the northern California reservoir system as a case study. We first introduce an open-source daily time-step simulation model of this system, which is validated against historical observations of operations. Multiobjective vulnerabilities to snowpack decline are then examined using a set of downscaled climate scenarios to capture the physically based effects of rising temperatures. A statistical analysis shows that the primary impacts include water supply shortage and lower reservoir storage resulting from the seasonal shift in runoff timing. These challenges identified from the vulnerability assessment inform proposed adaptations to operations to maintain multiobjective performance across the ensemble of plausible future scenarios, which include other uncertain hydrologic changes. To adapt seasonal reservoir management without the cost of additional infrastructure, we specifically propose and test adaptations that parameterize the structure of existing operating policies: a dynamic flood control rule curve and revised snowpack-to-streamflow forecasting methods to improve seasonal runoff predictability given declining snowpack. These adaptations are shown to mitigate the majority of vulnerabilities caused by snowpack decline across the scenario ensemble, with remaining opportunities for improvement using formal policy search and dynamic adaptation techniques. The coupled approach to vulnerability assessment and adaptation is generalizable to other snowmelt-dominated water resources systems facing the loss of seasonal storage due to rising temperatures. 
    more » « less
  5. Daily stream flow and groundwater dynamics in forested subalpine catchments during spring are to a large extent controlled by hydrological processes that respond to the day-night energy cycle. Diurnal snowmelt and transpiration events combine to induce pressure variations in the soil water storage that are propagated to the stream. In headwater catchments these pressure variations can account for a significant amount of the total pressure in the system and control the magnitude, duration, and timing of stream inflow pulses at daily scales, especially in low flow systems. Changes in the radiative balance at the top of the snowpack can alter the diurnal hydrologic dynamics of the hillslope-stream system with potential ecological and management consequences.

    We present a detailed hourly dataset of atmospheric, hillslope, and streamflow measurements collected during one melt season from a semi-alpine headwater catchment in western Montana, US. We use this dataset to investigate the timing, pattern, and linkages among snowmelt-dominated hydrologic processes and assess the role of the snowpack, transpiration, and hillslopes in mediating daily movements of water from the top of the snowpack to local stream systems. We found that the amount of snowpack cold content accumulated during the night, which must be overcome every morning before snowmelt resumes, delayed water recharge inputs by up to 3 hours early in the melt season. These delays were further exacerbated by multi-day storms (cold fronts), which resulted in significant depletions in the soil and stream storages. We also found that both diurnal snowmelt and transpiration signals are present in the diurnal soil and stream storage fluctuations, although the individual contributions of these processes is difficult to discern. Our analysis showed that the hydrologic response of the snow-hillslope-stream system is highly sensitive to atmospheric drivers at hourly scales, and that variations in atmospheric energy inputs or other stresses are quickly transmitted and alter the intensity, duration and timing of snowmelt pulses and soil water extractions by vegetation, which ultimately drive variations in soil and stream water pressures. 
    more » « less