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1. Growth and longevity in surfclams east of Nantucket: Range expansion in response to the post-2000 warming of the North Atlantic

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2020.104059  

   Powell, Eric N ; Trumble, Jason M ; Mann, R ; Long, M Chase ; Timbs, Jeremy R ; Kuykendall, Kelsey M ( April 2020 , Continental shelf research)

   null (Ed.)

   The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima, is distinguished by a well-documented shift in range that accelerated in the 2000s as the northwest Atlantic warmed. Here the extension of the Atlantic surfclam into heretofore Acadian Province waters off the island of Nantucket is documented and compared to the distribution of surfclam shell as an indicator of recent colonization, to the timing of range expansion, and to the physiological implications of a range extension into deeper water. The primary demographic difference observed is the dichotomous distribution of sizes. Smaller surfclams averaged higher in abundance at the deeper offshore sites, whereat the number of large animals was distinctly fewer; thus, the size-frequency distributions at deeper sites were shifted towards the smaller sizes, a finding consistent with the expectation of recruitment into deeper water during a period of range expansion. In confirmation, deeper-water stations where surfclams were aged yielded surfclams no older than 13 yr, whereas shallow-water stations had a mature age frequency with some surfclams exceeding 20 yr. Further support for the more recent occupation of deeper-water sites comes from the distribution of surfclam shell, that was found in limited quantities at stations where recent colonization is inferred and in greater quantities in shallower water where longer-term occupation is surmised. For the shallower-water sites with a mature demographic, growth rates were comparable or higher than observed elsewhere in the stock and surfclam maximum sizes were larger than elsewhere in the geographic range. In contrast, surfclams colonizing deeper water post-2000 grew at a slower rate likely due to a lower average temperature near the deep-water range boundary. The penalty for colonization pushing the range boundary into deeper, cooler water lasted no more than 4–5 years, however, after which growth rates increased to rates typical of surfclams in shallower water. Thus, surfclams responded quickly to a period of rapid climate change in contrast to expectation from their known longevity. 

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2. Radial growth response to climate change along the latitudinal range of the world's southernmost conifer in southern South America

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13199  

   Holz, Andrés ; Hart, Sarah J. ; Williamson, Grant J. ; Veblen, Thomas T. ; Aravena, Juan C. ( March 2018 , Journal of Biogeography)

   We examined whether and how tree radial‐growth responses to climate have changed for the world's southernmost conifer species throughout its latitudinal distribution following rapid climate change in the second half of the 20th century.

   Temperate forests in southern South America.

   New and existing tree‐ring radial growth chronologies representing the entire latitudinal range ofPilgerodendron uviferumwere grouped according to latitude and then examined for differences in growth trends and non‐stationarity in growth responses to a drought severity index (scPDSI) over the 1900–1993ADperiod and also before and after significant shifts in climate in the 1950s and 1970s.

   The radial‐growth response ofP. uviferumclimate was highly variable across its full latitudinal distribution. There was a long‐term and positive association between radial growth and higher moisture at the northern and southern edges of the distribution of this species and the opposite relationship for the core of its distribution, especially following the climatic shifts of the 1950s and 1970s. In addition, non‐stationarity in moisture‐radial growth relationships was observed in all three latitudinal groups (southern and northern edges and core) for all seasons during the 20th century.

   Climate shifts in southern South America in the 1950s and 1970s resulted in different responses in the mean radial growth ofP. uviferumat the southern and northern edges and at the core of its range. Dendroclimatic analyses document that during the first half of the 20th century climate‐growth relationships were relatively similar between the southern and northern range edges but diverged after the 1950s. Our findings imply that simulated projections of climate impacts on tree growth, and by implication on forest ecosystem productivity, derived from models of past climate‐growth relationships need to carefully consider different and non‐stationarity responses along the wide latitudinal distribution of this species.

    

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3. Trait-mediated shifts and climate velocity decouple an endothermic marine predator and its ectothermic prey

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97318-z  

   Thorne, L. H. ; Nye, J. A. ( September 2021 , Scientific Reports)

   Climate change is redistributing biodiversity globally and distributional shifts have been found to follow local climate velocities. It is largely assumed that marine endotherms such as cetaceans might shift more slowly than ectotherms in response to warming and would primarily follow changes in prey, but distributional shifts in cetaceans are difficult to quantify. Here we use data from fisheries bycatch and strandings to examine changes in the distribution of long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas), and assess shifts in pilot whales and their prey relative to climate velocity in a rapidly warming region of the Northwest Atlantic. We found a poleward shift in pilot whale distribution that exceeded climate velocity and occurred at more than three times the rate of fish and invertebrate prey species. Fish and invertebrates shifted at rates equal to or slower than expected based on climate velocity, with more slowly shifting species moving to deeper waters. We suggest that traits such as mobility, diet specialization, and thermoregulatory strategy are central to understanding and anticipating range shifts. Our findings highlight the potential for trait-mediated climate shifts to decouple relationships between endothermic cetaceans and their ectothermic prey, which has important implications for marine food web dynamics and ecosystem stability.

    

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4. Climate manipulations differentially affect plant population dynamics within versus beyond northern range limits

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13494  

   Reed, Paul B. ; Peterson, Megan L. ; Pfeifer‐Meister, Laurel E. ; Morris, William F. ; Doak, Daniel F. ; Roy, Bitty A. ; Johnson, Bart R. ; Bailes, Graham T. ; Nelson, Aaron A. ; Bridgham, Scott D. ; et al ( September 2020 , Journal of Ecology)

   Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species.

   We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (λ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation).

   Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affectedλat sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affectedλfor the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments.

   Synthesis. These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species.

    

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5. The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe  

   Soultan, Alaaeldin ; Pavón-Jordán, Diego ; Bradter, Ute ; Sandercock, Brett K ; Hochachka, Wesley M ; Johnston, Alison ; Brommer, Jon ; Gaget, Elie ; Keller, Verena ; Knaus, Peter ; et al ( February 2022 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr −1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr −1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. 

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