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Abstract In dryland ecosystems, vegetation within different plant functional groups exhibits distinct seasonal phenologies that are affected by the prevailing hydroclimatic forcing. The seasonal variability of precipitation, atmospheric evaporative demand, and streamflow influences root-zone water availability to plants in water-limited environments. Increasing interannual variations in climate forcing of the local water balance and uncertainty regarding climate change projections have raised the potential for phenological shifts and changes to vegetation dynamics. This poses significant risks to plant functional types across large areas, especially in drylands and within riparian ecosystems. Due to the complex interactions between climate, water availability, and seasonal plant water use, the timing and amplitude of phenological responses to specific hydroclimate forcing cannot be determined a priori , thus limiting efforts to dynamically predict vegetation greenness under future climate change. Here, we analyze two decades (1994–2021) of remote sensing data (soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI)) as well as contemporaneous hydroclimate data (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, depth to groundwater, and air temperature), to identify and quantify the key hydroclimatic controls on the timing and amplitude of seasonal greenness. We focus on key phenological events across four different plant functional groups occupying distinct locations and rooting depths in dryland SE Arizona: semi-arid grasses and shrubs, xeric riparian terrace and hydric riparian floodplain trees. We find that key phenological events such as spring and summer greenness peaks in grass and shrubs are strongly driven by contributions from antecedent spring and monsoonal precipitation, respectively. Meanwhile seasonal canopy greenness in floodplain and terrace vegetation showed strong response to groundwater depth as well as antecedent available precipitation (aaP = P − PET) throughout reaches of perennial and intermediate streamflow permanence. The timings of spring green-up and autumn senescence were driven by seasonal changes in air temperature for all plant functional groups. Based on these findings, we develop and test a simple, empirical phenology model, that predicts the timing and amplitude of greenness based on hydroclimate forcing. We demonstrate the feasibility of the model by exploring simple, plausible climate change scenarios, which may inform our understanding of phenological shifts in dryland plant communities and may ultimately improve our predictive capability of investigating and predicting climate-phenology interactions in the future.
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Groundwater dependence of riparian woodlands and the disrupting effect of anthropogenically altered streamflow
Riparian ecosystems fundamentally depend on groundwater, especially in dryland regions, yet their water requirements and sources are rarely considered in water resource management decisions. Until recently, technological limitations and data gaps have hindered assessment of groundwater influences on riparian ecosystem health at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to policy and management. Here, we analyze Sentinel-2–derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI;n= 5,335,472 observations), field-based groundwater elevation (n= 32,051 observations), and streamflow alteration data for riparian woodland communities (n= 22,153 polygons) over a 5-y period (2015 to 2020) across California. We find that riparian woodlands exhibit a stress response to deeper groundwater, as evidenced by concurrent declines in greenness represented by NDVI. Furthermore, we find greater seasonal coupling of canopy greenness to groundwater for vegetation along streams with natural flow regimes in comparison with anthropogenically altered streams, particularly in the most water-limited regions. These patterns suggest that many riparian woodlands in California are subsidized by water management practices. Riparian woodland communities rely on naturally variable groundwater and streamflow components to sustain key ecological processes, such as recruitment and succession. Altered flow regimes, which stabilize streamflow throughout the year and artificially enhance water supplies to riparian vegetation in the dry season, disrupt the seasonal cycles of abiotic drivers to which these Mediterranean forests are adapted. Consequently, our analysis suggests that many riparian ecosystems have become reliant on anthropogenically altered flow regimes, making them more vulnerable and less resilient to rapid hydrologic change, potentially leading to future riparian forest loss across increasingly stressed dryland regions.
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- PAR ID:
- 10249826
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 25
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. e2026453118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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