Multidecadal “megadroughts” were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.
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Climate did not drive Common Era Maldivian sea-level lowstands
Reconstructions of Common Era sea level are informative of relationships between sea level and natural climate variability, and the uniqueness of modern sea-level rise1. Kench et al.2 recently reconstructed Common Era sea level in the Maldives, Indian Ocean, using corals, and reported periods of 150–500 years when sea level fell and rose at average rates of 2.7–4.3 mm yr−1, which they attributed to ocean cooling and warming inferred from reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and radiative forcing (Fig. 2 of ref. 2). We challenge their interpretation, using principles of sea-level physics to argue that pre-industrial radiative forcing and SST changes were insufficient to cause thermosteric sea-level (TSL) trends as large as reported for the Maldives2. Our results support the paradigm that modern rates and magnitudes of sea-level rise due to climate change are unprecedented during the Common Era3,4.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2002485
- PAR ID:
- 10253697
- Editor(s):
- Super, J.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature geoscience
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- (5)
- ISSN:
- 1752-0894
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 273-275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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