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1. Separating Injection‐Driven and Earthquake‐Driven Induced Seismicity by Combining a Fully Coupled Poroelastic Model With Interpretable Machine Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109802  

   Hill, R G; Trugman, D T; Weingarten, M (September 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract In areas of induced seismicity, earthquakes can be triggered by stress changes due to fluid injection and static deformation from fault slip. Here we present a method to distinguish between injection‐driven and earthquake‐driven triggering of induced seismicity by combining a calibrated, fully coupled, poroelastic stress model of wastewater injection with interpretation of a machine learning algorithm trained on both earthquake catalog and modeled stress features. We investigate seismicity from Paradox Valley, Colorado as an ideal test case: a single, high‐pressure injector that has induced thousands of earthquakes since 1991. Using feature importance analysis, we find that injection‐driven earthquakes are approximately 225% of the total catalog but act as background events that can trigger subsequent aftershocks. Injection‐driven events also have distinct spatiotemporal clustering properties with a larger b‐value, closer proximity to the well, and earlier occurrence in the injection history. Generalization of our technique can help characterize triggering processes in other regions where induced seismicity occurs. 

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2. Rupture segmentation on the East Anatolian fault (Turkey) controlled by along-strike variations in long-term slip rates in a structurally complex fault system

   https://doi.org/10.1130/G52403.1  

   Wang, Binhao; Barbot, Sylvain (July 2024, Geology)

   The East Anatolian fault in Turkey exhibits along-strike rupture segmentation, typically resulting in earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) up to 7.5 that are confined to individual segments. However, on 6 February 2023, a catastrophic Mw 7.8 earthquake struck near Kahramanmaraş (southeastern Turkey), defying previous expectations by rupturing multiple segments spanning over 300 km and overcoming multiple geometric complexities. We explore the mechanics of successive single- and multi-segment ruptures using numerical models of the seismic cycle calibrated to historical earthquake records and geodetic observations of the 2023 doublet. Our model successfully reproduces the observed historical rupture segmentation and the rare occurrence of multi-segment earthquakes. The segmentation pattern is influenced by variations in long-term slip rate along strike across the kinematically complex fault network between the Arabian and Anatolian plates. Our physics-based seismic cycle simulations shed light on the long-term variability of earthquake size that shapes seismic hazards. 

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3. Microseismicity at the Time of a Large Creep Event on the Calaveras Fault is Unresponsive to Stress Changes

   https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v3i2.1337  

   Huang, Litong; Schwartz, Susan; Brodsky, Emily (July 2024, Seismica)

   The potential relationship between surface creep and deeper geological processes is unclear, even on one of the world’s best-studied faults. From June to August 2021, a large creep event with surface slip of more than 16 mm was recorded on the Calaveras fault in California, part of the San Andreas fault system. This event initially appeared to be accompanied by along-fault migration of seismicity, suggesting it penetrated to depth. Other studies have suggested that surface creep events are likely a shallow feature, unrelated to deep seismicity. To provide more detail on the relationship between earthquakes, surface creep, and potential aseismic slip at seismogenic depth, we tripled the number of earthquakes in the Northern California Earthquake Catalog in the region of the creep event for all of 2021. This was accomplished by implementing earthquake detection techniques based on both template matching (EQCorrscan) and AI-based automatic earthquake phase picking (PhaseNet). After manual inspection, the detected earthquakes were first located using Hypoinverse and subsequently relocated via GrowClust. Our enhanced catalog indicates that the spatiotemporal pattern of earthquakes here is not strongly influenced by the creep event and is better explained by structural heterogeneity than transient stress changes, indicating a decoupling of seismicity rate and surficial creep on this major fault. 

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4. Characterizing Multisubevent Earthquakes Using the Brune Source Model

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220192  

   Liu, Meichen; Huang, Yihe; Ritsema, Jeroen (January 2023, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)

   ABSTRACT Although the Brune source model describes earthquake moment release as a single pulse, it is widely used in studies of complex earthquakes with multiple episodes of high moment release (i.e., multiple subevents). In this study, we investigate how corner frequency estimates of earthquakes with multiple subevents are biased if they are based on the Brune source model. By assuming complex sources as a sum of multiple Brune sources, we analyze 1640 source time functions of Mw 5.5–8.0 earthquakes in the seismic source characteristic retrieved from deconvolving teleseismic body waves catalog to estimate the corner frequencies, onset times, and seismic moments of subevents. We identify more subevents for strike-slip earthquakes than dip-slip earthquakes, and the number of resolvable subevents increases with magnitude. We find that earthquake corner frequency correlates best with the corner frequency of the subevent with the highest moment release (i.e., the largest subsevent). This suggests that, when the Brune model is used, the estimated corner frequency and, therefore, the stress drop of a complex earthquake is determined primarily by the largest subevent rather than the total rupture area. Our results imply that, in addition to the simplified assumption of a radial rupture area with a constant rupture velocity, the stress variation of asperities, rather than the average stress change of the whole fault, contributes to the large variance of stress-drop estimates. 

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5. Earthquake behaviors in earthquake cycle simulations with fault damage zones

   Huang, Yihe; Thakur, Prithvi (January 2022, SSA Annual Meeting)

   Faults are usually surrounded by damage zones associated with localized deformation. Here we use fully dynamic earthquake cycle simulations to quantify the behaviors of earthquakes in fault damage zones. We show that fault damage zones can make a significant contribution to the spatial and temporal seismicity distribution. Fault stress heterogeneities generated by fault zone waves persist over multiple earthquake cycles that, in turn, produce small earthquakes that are absent in homogeneous simulations with the same friction conditions. Shallow fault zones can produce a bimodal depth distribution of earthquakes with clustering of seismicity at both shallower and deeper depths. Fault zone healing during the interseismic period also promotes the penetration of aseismic slip into the locked region and reduces the sizes of fault asperities that host earthquakes. Hence, small and moderate subsurface earthquakes with irregular recurrence intervals are commonly observed in immature fault zone simulations with interseismic healing. To link our simulation results to geological observations, we will use simulated fault slip at different depths to infer the timing and recurrence intervals of earthquakes and discuss how such measurements can affect our understanding of earthquake behaviors. We will also show that the maturity and material properties of fault damage zones have strong influence on whether long-term earthquake characteristics are represented by single events. 

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