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1. Identifying Predictors of Bridge Deterioration in the United States from a Data Science Perspective

   Kale, Akshay ( January 2019 , ProQuest Dissertation and Theses)

   null (Ed.)

   US Bridges scored a C+ on the 2017 infrastructure report card. There is a need for substantial improvement in bridge conditions as many of them are structurally deficient and can become unsafe in the near future. The nation's most recent bridge rehabilitation estimate is $123 billion. Many state's department of transportation (DOT) have limited resources, leaving them with difficult decisions about where to invest and allocate limited resources. To make cost-effective decisions, these bridge stakeholders need clean data and studies to estimate the future bridge conditions. This will give them data-driven, accurate life-cycle models for bridges and improved inspections intervals. Previous researchers have identified factors that may cause bridge deterioration. Unfortunately, these researchers limit their data to specific regions and bridge types. This severely limits their result's general applicability. In this thesis, we approach bridge health-related decision making challenges using a novel data science perspective. This bridge health deterioration study provides new insights into making bridge rehabilitation and reconstruction decisions. In this research, we use all US inspection record data regulated by the Federal Highway Agency that is available in the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) database and precipitation data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Our specific contributions are 1) providing a reference big data pipeline implementation for bridge health-related datasets; 2) demonstrating the feasibility of data science to study bridge deterioration; 3) developing repeatable methods for sharing large datasets with reproducible analysis driven by data science and making them available to other researchers. Further, our curated datasets and platforms are used to analyze the statistical significance of bridge deterioration factors as identified by the literature and subject matter experts at the Nebraska State DOT. From our results, we found that bridge material type has the highest association in comparison to other factors such as average daily traffic, average daily truck traffic, structure length, maintainer, region, and precipitation. This research used all NBI inspection records and precipitation rates from all US counties. 

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2. Machine-Aided Bridge Deck Crack Condition State Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence

   https://doi.org/10.3390/s23094192  

   Zhang, Xin ; Wogen, Benjamin E. ; Liu, Xiaoyu ; Iturburu, Lissette ; Salmeron, Manuel ; Dyke, Shirley J. ; Poston, Randall ; Ramirez, Julio A. ( May 2023 , Sensors)

   The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandates biannual bridge inspections to assess the condition of all bridges in the United States. These inspections are recorded in the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and the respective state’s databases to manage, study, and analyze the data. As FHWA specifications become more complex, inspections require more training and field time. Recently, element-level inspections were added, assigning a condition state to each minor element in the bridge. To address this new requirement, a machine-aided bridge inspection method was developed using artificial intelligence (AI) to assist inspectors. The proposed method focuses on the condition state assessment of cracking in reinforced concrete bridge deck elements. The deep learning-based workflow integrated with image classification and semantic segmentation methods is utilized to extract information from images and evaluate the condition state of cracks according to FHWA specifications. The new workflow uses a deep neural network to extract information required by the bridge inspection manual, enabling the determination of the condition state of cracks in the deck. The results of experimentation demonstrate the effectiveness of this workflow for this application. The method also balances the costs and risks associated with increasing levels of AI involvement, enabling inspectors to better manage their resources. This AI-based method can be implemented by asset owners, such as Departments of Transportation, to better serve communities. 

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3. A semi-supervised self-training method to develop assistive intelligence for segmenting multiclass bridge elements from inspection videos

   https://doi.org/10.1177/14759217211010422  

   Karim, Muhammad Monjurul ; Qin, Ruwen ; Chen, Genda ; Yin, Zhaozheng ( January 2021 , Structural Health Monitoring)

   null (Ed.)

   Bridge inspection is an important step in preserving and rehabilitating transportation infrastructure for extending their service lives. The advancement of mobile robotic technology allows the rapid collection of a large amount of inspection video data. However, the data are mainly the images of complex scenes, wherein a bridge of various structural elements mix with a cluttered background. Assisting bridge inspectors in extracting structural elements of bridges from the big complex video data, and sorting them out by classes, will prepare inspectors for the element-wise inspection to determine the condition of bridges. This article is motivated to develop an assistive intelligence model for segmenting multiclass bridge elements from the inspection videos captured by an aerial inspection platform. With a small initial training dataset labeled by inspectors, a Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network pre-trained on a large public dataset was transferred to the new task of multiclass bridge element segmentation. Besides, the temporal coherence analysis attempts to recover false negatives and identify the weakness that the neural network can learn to improve. Furthermore, a semi-supervised self-training method was developed to engage experienced inspectors in refining the network iteratively. Quantitative and qualitative results from evaluating the developed deep neural network demonstrate that the proposed method can utilize a small amount of time and guidance from experienced inspectors (3.58 h for labeling 66 images) to build the network of excellent performance (91.8% precision, 93.6% recall, and 92.7% f1-score). Importantly, the article illustrates an approach to leveraging the domain knowledge and experiences of bridge professionals into computational intelligence models to efficiently adapt the models to varied bridges in the National Bridge Inventory. 

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4. Predictive models of pregnancy based on data from a preconception cohort study

   https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deab280  

   Yland, Jennifer J. ; Wang, Taiyao ; Zad, Zahra ; Willis, Sydney K. ; Wang, Tanran R. ; Wesselink, Amelia K. ; Jiang, Tammy ; Hatch, Elizabeth E. ; Wise, Lauren A. ; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch ( January 2022 , Human Reproduction)

   Can we derive adequate models to predict the probability of conception among couples actively trying to conceive?

   Leveraging data collected from female participants in a North American preconception cohort study, we developed models to predict pregnancy with performance of ∼70% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

   Earlier work has focused primarily on identifying individual risk factors for infertility. Several predictive models have been developed in subfertile populations, with relatively low discrimination (AUC: 59–64%).

   Study participants were female, aged 21–45 years, residents of the USA or Canada, not using fertility treatment, and actively trying to conceive at enrollment (2013–2019). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire at enrollment and follow-up questionnaires every 2 months for up to 12 months or until conception. We used data from 4133 participants with no more than one menstrual cycle of pregnancy attempt at study entry.

   On the baseline questionnaire, participants reported data on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and behavioral factors, diet quality, medical history and selected male partner characteristics. A total of 163 predictors were considered in this study. We implemented regularized logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks and gradient boosted decision trees to derive models predicting the probability of pregnancy: (i) within fewer than 12 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model I), and (ii) within 6 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model II). Cox models were used to predict the probability of pregnancy within each menstrual cycle for up to 12 cycles of follow-up (Model III). We assessed model performance using the AUC and the weighted-F1 score for Models I and II, and the concordance index for Model III.

   Model I and II AUCs were 70% and 66%, respectively, in parsimonious models, and the concordance index for Model III was 63%. The predictors that were positively associated with pregnancy in all models were: having previously breastfed an infant and using multivitamins or folic acid supplements. The predictors that were inversely associated with pregnancy in all models were: female age, female BMI and history of infertility. Among nulligravid women with no history of infertility, the most important predictors were: female age, female BMI, male BMI, use of a fertility app, attempt time at study entry and perceived stress.

   Reliance on self-reported predictor data could have introduced misclassification, which would likely be non-differential with respect to the pregnancy outcome given the prospective design. In addition, we cannot be certain that all relevant predictor variables were considered. Finally, though we validated the models using split-sample replication techniques, we did not conduct an external validation study.

   Given a wide range of predictor data, machine learning algorithms can be leveraged to analyze epidemiologic data and predict the probability of conception with discrimination that exceeds earlier work.

   The research was partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (under grants DMS-1664644, CNS-1645681 and IIS-1914792) and the National Institutes for Health (under grants R01 GM135930 and UL54 TR004130). In the last 3 years, L.A.W. has received in-kind donations for primary data collection in PRESTO from FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, Sandstone Diagnostics and Swiss Precision Diagnostics. L.A.W. also serves as a fibroid consultant to AbbVie, Inc. The other authors declare no competing interests.

   N/A.

    

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5. Fecundability in relation to use of mobile computing apps to track the menstrual cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deaa176  

   Stanford, Joseph B ; Willis, Sydney K ; Hatch, Elizabeth E ; Rothman, Kenneth J ; Wise, Lauren A ( September 2020 , Human Reproduction)

   Abstract STUDY QUESTION To what extent does the use of mobile computing apps to track the menstrual cycle and the fertile window influence fecundability among women trying to conceive? SUMMARY ANSWER After adjusting for potential confounders, use of any of several different apps was associated with increased fecundability ranging from 12% to 20% per cycle of attempt. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Many women are using mobile computing apps to track their menstrual cycle and the fertile window, including while trying to conceive. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) is a North American prospective internet-based cohort of women who are aged 21–45 years, trying to conceive and not using contraception or fertility treatment at baseline. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS We restricted the analysis to 8363 women trying to conceive for no more than 6 months at baseline; the women were recruited from June 2013 through May 2019. Women completed questionnaires at baseline and every 2 months for up to 1 year. The main outcome was fecundability, i.e. the per-cycle probability of conception, which we assessed using self-reported data on time to pregnancy (confirmed by positive home pregnancy test) in menstrual cycles. On the baseline and follow-up questionnaires, women reported whether they used mobile computing apps to track their menstrual cycles (‘cycle apps’) and, if so, which one(s). We estimated fecundability ratios (FRs) for the use of cycle apps, adjusted for female age, race/ethnicity, prior pregnancy, BMI, income, current smoking, education, partner education, caffeine intake, use of hormonal contraceptives as the last method of contraception, hours of sleep per night, cycle regularity, use of prenatal supplements, marital status, intercourse frequency and history of subfertility. We also examined the impact of concurrent use of fertility indicators: basal body temperature, cervical fluid, cervix position and/or urine LH. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Among 8363 women, 6077 (72.7%) were using one or more cycle apps at baseline. A total of 122 separate apps were reported by women. We designated five of these apps before analysis as more likely to be effective (Clue, Fertility Friend, Glow, Kindara, Ovia; hereafter referred to as ‘selected apps’). The use of any app at baseline was associated with 20% increased fecundability, with little difference between selected apps versus other apps (selected apps FR (95% CI): 1.20 (1.13, 1.28); all other apps 1.21 (1.13, 1.30)). In time-varying analyses, cycle app use was associated with 12–15% increased fecundability (selected apps FR (95% CI): 1.12 (1.04, 1.21); all other apps 1.15 (1.07, 1.24)). When apps were used at baseline with one or more fertility indicators, there was higher fecundability than without fertility indicators (selected apps with indicators FR (95% CI): 1.23 (1.14, 1.34) versus without indicators 1.17 (1.05, 1.30); other apps with indicators 1.30 (1.19, 1.43) versus without indicators 1.16 (1.06, 1.27)). In time-varying analyses, results were similar when stratified by time trying at study entry (<3 vs. 3–6 cycles) or cycle regularity. For use of the selected apps, we observed higher fecundability among women with a history of subfertility: FR 1.33 (1.05–1.67). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Neither regularity nor intensity of app use was ascertained. The prospective time-varying assessment of app use was based on questionnaires completed every 2 months, which would not capture more frequent changes. Intercourse frequency was also reported retrospectively and we do not have data on timing of intercourse relative to the fertile window. Although we controlled for a wide range of covariates, we cannot exclude the possibility of residual confounding (e.g. choosing to use an app in this observational study may be a marker for unmeasured health habits promoting fecundability). Half of the women in the study received a free premium subscription for one of the apps (Fertility Friend), which may have increased the overall prevalence of app use in the time-varying analyses, but would not affect app use at baseline. Most women in the study were college educated, which may limit application of results to other populations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Use of a cycle app, especially in combination with observation of one or more fertility indicators (basal body temperature, cervical fluid, cervix position and/or urine LH), may increase fecundability (per-cycle pregnancy probability) by about 12–20% for couples trying to conceive. We did not find consistent evidence of improved fecundability resulting from use of one specific app over another. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This research was supported by grants, R21HD072326 and R01HD086742, from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, USA. In the last 3 years, Dr L.A.W. has served as a fibroid consultant for AbbVie.com. Dr L.A.W. has also received in-kind donations from Sandstone Diagnostics, Swiss Precision Diagnostics, FertilityFriend.com and Kindara.com for primary data collection and participant incentives in the PRESTO cohort. Dr J.B.S. reports personal fees from Swiss Precision Diagnostics, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A. 

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