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1. Drought onset and propagation into soil moisture and grassland vegetation responses during the 2012–2019 major drought in Southern California

   https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021  

   Warter, Maria Magdalena ; Singer, Michael Bliss ; Cuthbert, Mark O. ; Roberts, Dar ; Caylor, Kelly K. ; Sabathier, Romy ; Stella, John ( January 2021 , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought inCalifornia, e.g., within Californian Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscapes to fire and ecosystem degradation, we aimed to generalize drought-induced changes in subsurface soil moisture and to explore its effects within grassland ecosystems of Southern California. We used a high-resolution in situ dataset of climate and soil moisture from two grassland sites (coastal and inland), alongside greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from Landsat imagery, to explore drought dynamics in environments with similar precipitation but contrasting evaporative demand over the period 2008–2019. We show that negative impacts of prolonged precipitation deficits on vegetation at the coastal site were buffered by fog and moderate temperatures. During the drought, the Santa Barbara region experienced an early onset of the dry season in mid-March instead of April, resulting in premature senescence of grasses by mid-April. We developed a parsimonious soil moisture balance model that captures dynamic vegetation–evapotranspiration feedbacks and analyzed the links between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness over several years of simulated drought conditions, exploring the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios that reflect changes to precipitation amounts, their seasonal distribution, and evaporative demand. The redistribution of precipitation over a shortened rainy season highlighted a strong coupling of evapotranspiration to incoming precipitation at the coastal site, while the lower water-holding capacity of soils at the inland site resulted in additional drainage occurring under this scenario. The loss of spring rains due to a shortening of the rainy season also revealed a greater impact on the inland site, suggesting less resilience to low moisture at a time when plant development is about to start. The results also suggest that the coastal site would suffer disproportionally from extended dry periods, effectively driving these areas into more extreme drought than previously seen. These sensitivities suggest potential future increases in the risk of wildfires under climate change, as well as increased grassland ecosystem vulnerability. 

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2. Bamboo phenology and life cycle drive seasonal and long‐term functioning of Amazonian bamboo‐dominated forests

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13512  

   Fadrique, Belen ; Gann, Daniel ; Nelson, Bruce W. ; Saatchi, Sassan ; Feeley, Kenneth J. ; Jucker, ed., Tommaso ( October 2020 , Journal of Ecology)

   Bamboo‐dominated forests (BDF) extend over large areas in the drought‐prone Southwestern Amazon, yet little is known about the dynamics of these ecosystems. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that bamboo modulates large‐scale ecosystem dynamics through competition with coexisting trees for water.

   We examined spatio‐temporal patterns of remotely sensed metrics (Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI], Normalized Difference Moisture Index [NDMI]) in >300 Landsat images as proxies for canopy leaf phenology and water content at two time scales: (1) a complete bamboo life cycle (~28 years), and (2) the seasonal cycle; and at two spatial scales: (a) comparing adjacent areas of BDF vs.Terra‐firmeforests (TFF) to investigate regional dynamics, and (b) comparing the vegetation classes of bamboo, trees in BDF, and trees in TFF to investigate the effects of bamboo on coexisting trees.

   At the regional scale, BDF showed higher EVI (leaf area density) and lower NDMI (water content) than nearby TFF but these differences disappeared as bamboo died, suggesting a strong influence of bamboo life stage in the functioning of these forests. BDF seasonal cycle showed a bimodal EVI pattern as trees and bamboos had asynchronized leaf production peaks.

   At the scale of vegetation classes, trees in BDF showed lower NDMI (i.e. water content) than trees in TFF except after bamboo mortality, indicating a release from competition with bamboo for water. Canopy water content of trees in BDF was also reduced during bamboo dry‐season greening (increased EVI ~ leaf production) due to increased water demands. Nevertheless, long‐term and seasonal phenology of trees in BDF did not differ from that of trees in TFF suggesting a potential selection for drought‐tolerant trees in BDF.

   Synthesis. Bamboo‐dominated forests have received less attention than other Amazonian forests and their functional dynamics are commonly ignored or misinterpreted. Using remote sensing to characterize forest phenology and water content, we show the distinctive seasonal and long‐term dynamics of BDF and coexisting trees and the importance of bamboo competition for water in shaping this ecosystem. Our results suggest a potential selection for drought‐tolerant trees in BDF since they maintain the same EVI as trees in bamboo‐free forests but with lower water content. A better characterization of BDF and their cyclical dynamics is crucial for accurately interpreting Amazonian forests' responses to extreme climatic events such as high temperatures and droughts.

    

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3. Dead again: predictions of repeat tree die-off under hotter droughts confirm mortality thresholds for a dryland conifer species

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7968  

   Wion, Andreas P. ; Breshears, David D. ; Carroll, Charles J. W. ; Cobb, Neil S. ; Hart, Sarah J. ; Law, Darin J. ; Meneses, Nashelly ; Redmond, Miranda D. ( July 2022 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Tree die-off, driven by extreme drought and exacerbated by a warming climate, is occurring rapidly across every wooded continent—threatening carbon sinks and other ecosystem services provided by forests and woodlands. Forecasting the spatial patterns of tree die-off in response to drought is a priority for the management and conservation of forested ecosystems under projected future hotter and drier climates. Several thresholds derived from drought-metrics have been proposed to predict mortality ofPinus edulis,a model tree species in many studies of drought-induced tree die-off. To improve future capacity to forecast tree mortality, we used a severe drought as a natural experiment. We compared the ability of existing mortality thresholds derived from four drought metrics (the Forest Drought Severity Index (FDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and raw values of precipitation (PPT) and vapor pressure deficit, calculated using 4 km PRISM data) to predict areas ofP. edulisdie-off following an extreme drought in 2018 across the southwestern US. Using aerial detection surveys of tree mortality in combination with gridded climate data, we calculated the agreement between these four proposed thresholds and the presence and absence of regional-scale tree die-off using sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC). Overall, existing mortality thresholds tended to over predict the spatial extent of tree die-off across the landscape, yet some retain moderate skill in discriminating between areas that experienced and did not experience tree die-off. The simple PPT threshold had the highest AUC score (71%) as well as fair sensitivity and specificity, but the FDSI had the greatest sensitivity to die-off (85.9%). We highlight that empirically derived climate thresholds may be useful forecasting tools to identify vulnerable areas to drought induced die-off, allowing for targeted responses to future droughts and improved management of at-risk areas.

    

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4. Drought survival strategies differ between coastal and montane conifers in northern California

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4480  

   Robinson, Wallis ; Kerhoulas, Lucy P. ; Sherriff, Rosemary L. ; Roletti, Gabriel ; van Mantgem, Phillip J. ( March 2023 , Ecosphere)

   Increasingly severe and prolonged droughts are contributing to tree stress and forest mortality across western North America. However, in many cases, we currently have poor information concerning how drought responses in forests vary in relation to competition, climate, and site and tree characteristics. We used annual tree ring evidence of¹³C discrimination (Δ¹³C) and growth metrics to assess drought resistance and resilience for six conifer species at the intersection of several bioregions in northern California. Within each species' range in northern California, we collected competition and tree characteristics from 270 focal trees across sites that varied from wetter to drier habitat conditions (54 sites). Across sites, all six conifer species weathered the severe 2013–2015 drought with reasonably high resistance and post‐drought resilience. However, we found important differences in drought responses between coastal and montane species based on annual growth and Δ¹³C metrics. Broadly, the two coastal species showed consistent declines in drought resistance across successive drought years, whereas the four montane species maintained high drought resistance across drought years. More specifically, we found lower Δ¹³C and growth during drought years in coastal species, suggesting stomatal closure during drought with the potential for vulnerability to carbon depletion during long‐term drought. Conversely, Δ¹³C and growth were stable in montane species throughout the drought, which may contribute to hydraulic failure under increased drought frequency and/or severity. We also evaluated environmental factors that affect Δ¹³C using data from before and during the drought. These physiological models were consistent for the two coastal species, with a positive relationship between annual precipitation and Δ¹³C and a negative relationship between tree density and Δ¹³C. Conversely, the four montane models illustrated a greater importance of site conditions on drought responses for these species. Our findings show differential risk for drought stress across diverse conifers during severe drought. This work highlights the importance of site and tree characteristics in determining drought responses across cool, annually humid coastal habitats to seasonally dry montane habitats.

    

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5. Changes in tree drought sensitivity provided early warning signals to the California drought and forest mortality event

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15973  

   Keen, Rachel M. ; Voelker, Steven L. ; Wang, S. ‐Y. Simon ; Bentz, Barbara J. ; Goulden, Michael L. ; Dangerfield, Cody R. ; Reed, Charlotte C. ; Hood, Sharon M. ; Csank, Adam Z. ; Dawson, Todd E. ; et al ( November 2021 , Global Change Biology)

   Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆¹³C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012–2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆¹³C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆¹³C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine‐dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management—particularly in drier regions—may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming.

    

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