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1. Challenges and Opportunities in Rapid Epidemic Information Propagation with Live Knowledge Aggregation from Social Media

   https://doi.org/10.1109/CogMI50398.2020.00026  

   Pu, Calton; Suprem, Abhijit; Lima, Rodrigo Alves (October 2020, 2020 IEEE Second International Conference on Cognitive Machine Intelligence)

   null (Ed.)

   A rapidly evolving situation such as the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant challenge for AI/ML models because of its unpredictability. The most reliable indicator of the pandemic spreading has been the number of test positive cases. However, the tests are both incomplete (due to untested asymptomatic cases) and late (due the lag from the initial contact event, worsening symptoms, and test results). Social media can complement physical test data due to faster and higher coverage, but they present a different challenge: significant amounts of noise, misinformation and disinformation. We believe that social media can become good indicators of pandemic, provided two conditions are met. The first (True Novelty) is the capture of new, previously unknown, information from unpredictably evolving situations. The second (Fact vs. Fiction) is the distinction of verifiable facts from misinformation and disinformation. Social media information that satisfy those two conditions are called live knowledge. We apply evidence-based knowledge acquisition (EBKA) approach to collect, filter, and update live knowledge through the integration of social media sources with authoritative sources. Although limited in quantity, the reliable training data from authoritative sources enable the filtering of misinformation as well as capturing truly new information. We describe the EDNA/LITMUS tools that implement EBKA, integrating social media such as Twitter and Facebook with authoritative sources such as WHO and CDC, creating and updating live knowledge on the COVID-19 pandemic. 

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2. Building an Open Resources Repository for COVID-19 Research

   https://doi.org/10.2478/dim-2020-0012  

   Hu, Tao; Guan, Weihe Wendy; Zhu, Xinyan; Shao, Yuanzheng; Liu, Lingbo; Du, Jing; Liu, Hongqiang; Zhou, Huan; Wang, Jialei; She, Bing; et al (July 2020, Data and Information Management)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak is a global pandemic declared by the World Health Organization, with rapidly increasing cases in most countries. A wide range of research is urgently needed for understanding the COVID-19 pandemic, such as transmissibility, geographic spreading, risk factors for infections, and economic impacts. Reliable data archive and sharing are essential to jump-start innovative research to combat COVID-19. This research is a collaborative and innovative effort in building such an archive, including the collection of various data resources relevant to COVID-19 research, such as daily cases, social media, population mobility, health facilities, climate, socioeconomic data, research articles, policy and regulation, and global news. Due to the heterogeneity between data sources, our effort also includes processing and integrating different datasets based on GIS (Geographic Information System) base maps to make them relatable and comparable. To keep the data files permanent, we published all open data to the Harvard Dataverse ( https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/2019ncov ), an online data management and sharing platform with a permanent Digital Object Identifier number for each dataset. Finally, preliminary studies are conducted based on the shared COVID-19 datasets and revealed different spatial transmission patterns among mainland China, Italy, and the United States. 

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3. Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009374  

   Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L. (September 2021, PLOS Computational Biology)

   Althouse, Benjamin Muir (Ed.)

   Accurate estimates of infection prevalence and seroprevalence are essential for evaluating and informing public health responses and vaccination coverage needed to address the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in each United States (U.S.) state. However, reliable, timely data based on representative population sampling are unavailable, and reported case and test positivity rates are highly biased. A simple data-driven Bayesian semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and used to evaluate state-level prevalence and seroprevalence of COVID-19 using daily reported cases and test positivity ratios. The model was calibrated to and validated using published state-wide seroprevalence data, and further compared against two independent data-driven mathematical models. The prevalence of undiagnosed COVID-19 infections is found to be well-approximated by a geometrically weighted average of the positivity rate and the reported case rate. Our model accurately fits state-level seroprevalence data from across the U.S. Prevalence estimates of our semi-empirical model compare favorably to those from two data-driven epidemiological models. As of December 31, 2020, we estimate nation-wide a prevalence of 1.4% [Credible Interval (CrI): 1.0%-1.9%] and a seroprevalence of 13.2% [CrI: 12.3%-14.2%], with state-level prevalence ranging from 0.2% [CrI: 0.1%-0.3%] in Hawaii to 2.8% [CrI: 1.8%-4.1%] in Tennessee, and seroprevalence from 1.5% [CrI: 1.2%-2.0%] in Vermont to 23% [CrI: 20%-28%] in New York. Cumulatively, reported cases correspond to only one third of actual infections. The use of this simple and easy-to-communicate approach to estimating COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence will improve the ability to make public health decisions that effectively respond to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 

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4. COVID-19: Social Media Sources of Authority During a Global Pandemic

   https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77685-5_23  

   Alsoubai, A. (July 2021, the Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction (HCII 2021))

   null (Ed.)

   Since the start of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, social media platforms have been filled with discussions about the global health crisis. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has highlighted the importance of seeking credible sources of information on social media regarding COVID-19. In this study, we conducted an in-depth analysis of Twitter posts about COVID-19 during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify influential sources of COVID-19 information and understand the characteristics of these sources. We identified influential accounts based on an information diffusion network representing the interactions of Twitter users who discussed COVID-19 in the United States over a 24-h period. The network analysis revealed 11 influential accounts that we categorized as: 1) political authorities (elected government officials), 2) news organizations, and 3) personal accounts. Our findings showed that while verified accounts with a large following tended to be the most influential users, smaller personal accounts also emerged as influencers. Our analysis revealed that other users often interacted with influential accounts in response to news about COVID-19 cases and strongly contested political arguments received the most interactions overall. These findings suggest that political polarization was a major factor in COVID-19 information diffusion. We discussed the implications of political polarization on social media for COVID-19 communication. 

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5. An interpretable hybrid predictive model of COVID-19 cases using autoregressive model and LSTM

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33685-z  

   Zhang, Yangyi; Tang, Sui; Yu, Guo (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a profound impact on global health and economy, making it crucial to build accurate and interpretable data-driven predictive models for COVID-19 cases to improve public policy making. The extremely large scale of the pandemic and the intrinsically changing transmission characteristics pose a great challenge for effectively predicting COVID-19 cases. To address this challenge, we propose a novel hybrid model in which the interpretability of the Autoregressive model (AR) and the predictive power of the long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM) join forces. The proposed hybrid model is formalized as a neural network with an architecture that connects two composing model blocks, of which the relative contribution is decided data-adaptively in the training procedure. We demonstrate the favorable performance of the hybrid model over its two single composing models as well as other popular predictive models through comprehensive numerical studies on two data sources under multiple evaluation metrics. Specifically, in county-level data of 8 California counties, our hybrid model achieves 4.173% MAPE, outperforming the composing AR (5.629%) and LSTM (4.934%) alone on average. In country-level datasets, our hybrid model outperforms the widely-used predictive models such as AR, LSTM, Support Vector Machines, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest, in predicting the COVID-19 cases in Japan, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Singapore, Italy, and the United Kingdom. In addition to the predictive performance, we illustrate the interpretability of our proposed hybrid model using the estimated AR component, which is a key feature that is not shared by most black-box predictive models for COVID-19 cases. Our study provides a new and promising direction for building effective and interpretable data-driven models for COVID-19 cases, which could have significant implications for public health policy making and control of the current COVID-19 and potential future pandemics. 

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