skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Herbaceous perennial plants with short generation time have stronger responses to climate anomalies than those with longer generation time
Abstract There is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesize time series of structured population models from 162 populations of 62 plants, mostly herbaceous species from temperate biomes, to link plant population growth rates ( λ ) to precipitation and temperature drivers. We expect: (1) more pronounced demographic responses to precipitation than temperature, especially in arid biomes; and (2) a higher climate sensitivity in short-lived rather than long-lived species. We find that precipitation anomalies have a nearly three-fold larger effect on λ than temperature. Species with shorter generation time have much stronger absolute responses to climate anomalies. We conclude that key species-level traits can predict plant population responses to climate, and discuss the relevance of this generalization for conservation planning.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1661342
PAR ID:
10283849
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Volume:
12
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2041-1723
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate ( λ ) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on λ . However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on λ did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, λ was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes. 
    more » « less
  2. A rich body of evidence from local-scale experiments and observational studies has revealed stabilizing effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning. However, whether these effects emerge across entire regions and continents remains largely overlooked. Here we combine data on the distribution of more than 57,500 plant species and remote-sensing observations throughout the entire Western Hemisphere to investigate the role of multiple facets of plant diversity (species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and functional diversity) in mediating the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability at the regional-scale over the past 20 years. We show that, across multiple biomes, regions of greater plant diversity exhibit lower sensitivity (more stable over time) to temperature variability at the interannual and seasonal-scales. While these areas can display lower sensitivity to interannual variability in precipitation, they emerge as highly sensitive to precipitation seasonality. Conserving landscapes of greater diversity may help stabilize ecosystem functioning under climate change, possibly securing the continuous provisions of productivity-related ecosystem service to people. 
    more » « less
  3. null (Ed.)
    Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t  1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(lambds). Log(lambda) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 x 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 x 10 observations). 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract PremiseChanges to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual‐level responses of phenologically distinct, co‐occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology. MethodsWe collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large‐scale snowmelt acceleration experiment. ResultsDifferences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species‐specific. For our early‐season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late‐season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen‐limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early‐season species. ConclusionsOur study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual‐level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success. 
    more » « less
  5. Primary productivity response to climatic drivers varies temporally, indicating state-dependent interactions between climate and productivity. Previous studies primarily employed equation-based approaches to clarify this relationship, ignoring the state-dependent nature of ecological dynamics. Here, using 40 y of climate and productivity data from 48 grassland sites across Mongolia, we applied an equation-free, nonlinear time-series analysis to reveal sensitivity patterns of productivity to climate change and variability and clarify underlying mechanisms. We showed that productivity responded positively to annual precipitation in mesic regions but negatively in arid regions, with the opposite pattern observed for annual mean temperature. Furthermore, productivity responded negatively to decreasing annual aridity that integrated precipitation and temperature across Mongolia. Productivity responded negatively to interannual variability in precipitation and aridity in mesic regions but positively in arid regions. Overall, interannual temperature variability enhanced productivity. These response patterns are largely unrecognized; however, two mechanisms are inferable. First, time-delayed climate effects modify annual productivity responses to annual climate conditions. Notably, our results suggest that the sensitivity of annual productivity to increasing annual precipitation and decreasing annual aridity can even be negative when the negative time-delayed effects of annual precipitation and aridity on productivity prevail across time. Second, the proportion of plant species resistant to water and temperature stresses at a site determines the sensitivity of productivity to climate variability. Thus, we highlight the importance of nonlinear, state-dependent sensitivity of productivity to climate change and variability, accurately forecasting potential biosphere feedback to the climate system. 
    more » « less