Abstract Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. Objective To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019. Methods We apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R 0 was obtained from previous clinical studies. Results Complete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R 0 to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure. Conclusions Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R 0 to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.
more »
« less
Controlling COVID-19: The Folly of International Travel Restrictions
The global public health community is grappling with COVID-2019, a respiratory disease outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus originating from Wuhan, China in late December 2019. A number of countries implemented citizenship-based travel restrictions in late January and early February as an initial response to the outbreak, barring entry to foreign nationals who had previously been in China to prevent the importation of the virus. By early March, when the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declared the outbreak to be a global pandemic, these countries were still relying on travel restrictions as a means of infection control. These travel restrictions constituted restrictions or outright bans on the entry of foreign nationals with a particular citizenship-such policies tend to be popular with a general public with limited public health knowledge. However, travel restrictions are ineffective as an infection control measure and may do more harm than good, depriving the public of its right to health. Furthermore, travel restrictions implemented under the guise of public health policy have historically been used to target migrants and racial and ethnic minorities, violating their rights to nondiscrimination and equal treatment. As states rush to balance public health with politics in their response to this global pandemic, they are sidelining human rights rather than protecting them
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1632976
- PAR ID:
- 10287256
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Health and human rights
- ISSN:
- 1079-0969
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Background Removal of zero-COVID restrictions in China led to a surge in COVID-19 cases. In response, countries imposed restrictions on Chinese travelers. However, border policies imposed may not have been informed by accurate data and may not have provided substantial benefits. Methods We analyzed quarantines sufficient to prevent additional in-country transmission for February 13–19, 2023 based on World Health Organization (WHO) and self-reported infections to estimate prevalence. Results We have shown that self-reported prevalence data indicated more stringent border restrictions compared to WHO-published prevalence statistics. No travel restrictions were required for Singapore, South Korea, and Japan so that infections would not be greater than with complete border closure. However, a 1-, 2-, and 3-day quarantine were indicated for England, Germany, and Scotland respectively. A 10-, 13-, and 14-day quarantine were required for Italy, France, and the Philippines, respectively, to prevent an increase in within-country infections due to travel. Vietnam and Thailand required a complete border shutdown. Conclusion Our results demonstrated the necessity for accurate and timely reporting of pandemic statistics to prevent an increase in viral spread. Through the minimum quarantine analysis, countries can use science to determine policy, minimize international friction, and improve the cost-efficiency of interventions.more » « less
-
Abstract Despite a number of successful approaches in predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and quantifying the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions starting from data about the initial outbreak location, we lack an intrinsic understanding as outbreak locations shift and evolve. Here, we fill this gap by developing a country distance approach to capture the pandemic’s propagation backbone tree from a complex airline network with multiple and evolving outbreak locations. We apply this approach, which is analogous to the effective resistance in series and parallel circuits, to examine countries’ closeness regarding disease spreading and evaluate the effectiveness of travel restrictions on delaying infections. In particular, we find that 63.2% of travel restrictions implemented as of 1 June 2020 are ineffective. The remaining percentage postponed the disease arrival time by 18.56 days per geographical area and resulted in a total reduction of 13,186,045 infected cases. Our approach enables us to design optimized and coordinated travel restrictions to extend the delay in arrival time and further reduce more infected cases while preserving air travel.more » « less
-
COVID-19 has seriously threatened people’s health and well-being across the globe since it was first reported in Wuhan, China in late 2019. This study investigates the mechanism of COVID-19 transmission in different periods within and between cities in China to better understand the nature of the outbreak. We use Moran’s I, a measure of spatial autocorrelation, to examine the spatial dependency of COVID-19 and a dynamic spatial autoregressive model to explore the transmission mechanism. We find that the spatial dependency of COVID-19 decreased over time and that the transmission of the disease could be divided into three distinct stages: an eruption stage, a stabilization stage, and a declination stage. The infection rate between cities was close to one-third of the infection rate within cities at the eruption stage, while it reduced to zero at the declination stage. We also find that the infection rates within cities at the eruption stage and declination stage were similar. China’s policies for controlling the spread of the epidemic, specifically with respect to limiting inter-city mobility and implementing intra-city travel restrictions (social isolation), were most effective in reducing the viral transmission of COVID-19. The findings from this study indicate that the elimination of inter-city mobility had the largest impact on controlling disease transmission.more » « less
-
Since its outbreak in December 2019, the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to 191 countries and caused millions of deaths. Many countries have experienced multiple epidemic waves and faced containment pressures from both domestic and international transmission. In this study, we conduct a multiscale geographic analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in a policy-influenced dynamic network to quantify COVID-19 importation risk under different policy scenarios using evidence from China. Our spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model explicitly distinguishes the effects of travel flows from the effects of transmissibility within cities, across cities, and across national borders. We find that within-city transmission was the dominant transmission mechanism in China at the beginning of the outbreak and that all domestic transmission mechanisms were muted or significantly weakened before importation posed a threat. We identify effective containment policies by matching the change points of domestic and importation transmissibility parameters to the timing of various interventions. Our simulations suggest that importation risk is limited when domestic transmission is under control, but that cumulative cases would have been almost 13 times higher if domestic transmissibility had resurged to its precontainment level after importation and 32 times higher if domestic transmissibility had remained at its precontainment level since the outbreak. Our findings provide practical insights into infectious disease containment and call for collaborative and coordinated global suppression efforts.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

