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1. Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022  

   Erb, Michael P. ; McKay, Nicholas P. ; Steiger, Nathan ; Dee, Sylvia ; Hancock, Chris ; Ivanovic, Ruza F. ; Gregoire, Lauren J. ; Valdes, Paul ( January 2022 , Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. Paleoclimatic records provide valuable information about Holocene climate, revealing aspects of climate variability for a multitude of sites around the world. However, such data also possess limitations. Proxy networks are spatially uneven, seasonally biased, uncertain in time, and present a variety of challenges when used in concert to illustrate the complex variations of past climate. Paleoclimatic data assimilation provides one approach to reconstructing past climate that can account for the diversenature of proxy records while maintaining the physics-based covariancestructures simulated by climate models. Here, we use paleoclimate dataassimilation to create a spatially complete reconstruction of temperatureover the past 12 000 years using proxy data from the Temperature 12k database and output from transient climate model simulations. Following the last glacial period, the reconstruction shows Holocene temperatures warming to a peak near 6400 years ago followed by a slow cooling toward the present day, supporting a mid-Holocene which is at least as warm as the preindustrial. Sensitivity tests show that if proxies have an overlooked summer bias, some apparent mid-Holocene warmth could actually represent summer trends rather than annual mean trends. Regardless, the potential effects of proxy seasonal biases are insufficient to align the reconstructed global mean temperature with the warming trends seen in transient model simulations. 

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2. Expedition 397 Preliminary Report: Iberian Margin Paleoclimate

   Hodell, D.A. ; Abrantes, F. ; Alvarez Zarikian, C.A. ( February 2023 , Preliminary report)

   During International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 397, we recovered a total of 6176.7 m of core (104.2% recovery) at four sites (U1586, U1587, U1385, and U1588) from the Promontório dos Principes de Avis (PPA) (Figure F1), a plateau located on the Portuguese continental slope that is elevated above the Tagus Abyssal Plain and isolated from the influence of turbidites. The drill sites are arranged along a bathymetric transect (4691, 3479, 2590, and 1339 meters below sea level [mbsl], respectively) to intersect each of the major subsurface water masses of the eastern North Atlantic (Figures F2, F7). Multiple holes were drilled at each site to ensure complete spliced composite sections (Figure F3; Table T1), which will be further refined postcruise by a campaign of X-ray fluorescence core scanning. At Site U1586 (4691 mbsl), the deepest and farthest from shore, a 350 m sequence was recovered in four holes that extend as far back as the middle Miocene (14 Ma), which is nearly twice as old as initially predicted from seismic stratigraphy. Sedimentation rates are lower (averaging 5 cm/ky in the Quaternary) at Site U1586 than other Expedition 397 sites (Figure F4), and a few slumped intervals were encountered in the stratigraphic sequence. Despite these limitations, Site U1586 anchors the deep end-member of the bathymetric transect and provides an important reference section to study deepwater circulation, ventilation and carbon storage in the deep eastern North Atlantic. At Site U1587 (3479 mbsl), the second deepest site along the depth transect, we recovered a 567 m sequence of late Miocene to Holocene sediments that accumulated at rates between 6.5 and 11 cm/ky (Figure F4). The high sedimentation rates and long continuous record at this site will permit climate reconstruction at high temporal resolution (e.g., millennial) for the past 7.8 My. A complete Messinian Stage (7.246–5.333 Ma) was recovered, which provides a valuable opportunity to study the Messinian Salinity Crisis in an open marine setting adjacent to the Mediterranean. Site U1385 (Shackleton site) was a reoccupation of a position previously drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339. Expedition 339 Site U1385 has yielded a remarkable record of millennial-scale climate change for the past 1.45 My (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 47) (Figure F6). During Expedition 397, we deepened the site from 156 to 400 meters below seafloor (mbsf), extending the basal age into the early Pliocene (4.5 Ma). Sedimentation rates remained high, averaging between 11 and 9 cm/ky throughout the sequence (Figure F4). The newly recovered cores at Expedition 397 Site U1385 will permit the study of millennial climate variability through the entire Quaternary and into the Pliocene, prior to the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Site U1588 is the shallowest, closest to shore, and youngest site drilled during Expedition 397 and is also the one with the highest sedimentation rate (20 cm/ky). The base of the 412.5 m sequence is 2.2 Ma, providing an expanded Pleistocene sequence of sediment deposited under the influence of the lower core of the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW). Together with other Expedition 339 sites, Site U1588 will be important for determining how the depth and intensity of the MOW has varied on orbital and millennial timescales. In addition, it also provides a marine reference section for studying Quaternary climate variability at very high temporal resolution (millennial to submillennial). A highlight of the expedition is that sediment at all sites shows very strong cyclicity in bulk sediment properties (color, magnetic susceptibility, and natural gamma radiation). Particularly notable are the precession cycles of the Pliocene that can be correlated peak-for-peak among sites (Figure F10). These cyclic variations will be used to derive an orbitally tuned timescale for Expedition 397 sites and correlate them into classic Mediterranean cyclostratigraphy. The cores recovered during Expedition 397 will form the basis of collaborative postcruise research to produce benchmark paleoclimate records for the late Miocene through Quaternary using the widest range of proxy measurements. It will take many years to complete these analyses, but the records will lead to major advances in our understanding of millennial and orbital climate changes and their underlying causes and evolving contextuality. Outreach during Expedition 397 was highly productive, reaching a record number of students and the general public across the world through several diverse platforms, including live ship-to-shore events, webinars, social media, videos, radio pieces, blog posts, and in-person activities. 

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3. Evidence for Decreased Precipitation Variability in the Yucatán Peninsula During the Mid‐Holocene

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004219  

   Serrato Marks, Gabriela ; Medina‐Elizalde, Martín ; Burns, Stephen ; Weldeab, Syee ; Lases‐Hernandez, Fernanda ; Cazares, Gabriela ; McGee, David ( May 2021 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The Yucatán Peninsula (YP) has a complex hydroclimate with many proposed drivers of interannual and longer‐term variability, ranging from coupled ocean–atmosphere processes to frequency of tropical cyclones. The mid‐Holocene, a time of higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, provides an opportunity to test the relationship between YP precipitation and ocean temperature. Here, we present a new, ∼annually resolved speleothem record of stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) and trace element (Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca) ratios for a section of the mid‐Holocene (5.2–5.7 kyr BP), before extensive agriculture began in the region. A meter‐long stalagmite from Río Secreto, a cave system in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, was dated using U–Th geochronology and layer counting, yielding multidecadal age uncertainty (median 2SD of ±70 years). New proxy data were compared to an existing late Holocene stalagmite record from the same cave system, allowing us to examine changes in hydrology over time and to paleoclimate records from the southern YP. The δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, and Mg/Ca data consistently indicate higher mean precipitation and lower precipitation variability during the mid‐Holocene compared to the late Holocene. Despite this reduced variability, multidecadal precipitation variations were persistent in regional hydroclimate during the mid‐Holocene. We therefore conclude that higher summer insolation led to increased mean precipitation and decreased precipitation variability in the northern YP but that the region is susceptible to dry periods across climate mean states. Given projected decreases in wet season precipitation in the YP’s near future, we suggest that climate mitigation strategies emphasize drought preparation.

    

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4. North American Hydroclimate During Past Warms States: A Proxy Compilation‐Model Comparison for the Last Interglacial and the Mid‐Holocene

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004528  

   de Wet, C. B. ; Ibarra, D. E. ; Belanger, B. K. ; Oster, J. L. ( June 2023 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   During the mid‐Holocene (MH: ∼6,000 years Before Present) and Last Interglacial LIG (LIG: ∼129,000–116,000 years Before Present) differences in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation drove Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude warming comparable to that projected for the end of the 21st century in low emissions scenarios. Paleoclimate proxy records point to distinct but regionally variable hydroclimatic changes during these past warm intervals. However, model simulations have generally disagreed on North American regional moisture patterns during the MH and LIG. To investigate how closely the latest generation of models associated with the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) reproduces proxy‐inferred moisture patterns during recent warm periods, we compare hydroclimate output from 17 PMIP4 models with newly updated compilations of moisture‐sensitive North American proxy records during the MH and LIG. Agreement is lower for the MH, with models producing wet anomalies across the western United States (US) where most proxies indicate increased aridity relative to the preindustrial period. The models that agree most closely with the LIG proxy compilation display relative wetness in the eastern US and Alaska, and dryness in the northwest and central US. An assessment of atmospheric dynamics using an ensemble of the three LIG simulations that best agree with the proxies suggests that weaker winter North Pacific pressure gradients and steeper summer North Pacific and Atlantic gradients drive LIG precipitation patterns. Our updated compilations and proxy‐model comparisons offer a tool for benchmarking climate models and their performance in simulating climate states that are warmer than present.

    

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5. The CoralHydro2K Database: a global, actively curated compilation of coral d18O and Sr/Ca proxy records of tropical ocean hydrology and temperature for the Common Era

   Walter, R. M. ( January 2023 , Earth system science data)

   The response of the hydrological cycle to anthropogenic climate change, especially across the tropical oceans, remains poorly understood due to the scarcity of long instrumental temperature and hydrological records. Massive shallow-water corals are ideally suited to reconstructing past oceanic variability as they are widely distributed across the tropics, rapidly deposit calcium carbonate skeletons that continuously record ambient environmental conditions, and can be sampled at monthly to annual resolution. Most coral-based reconstructions utilize stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) that tracks the combined change in sea surface temperature (SST) and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), a measure of hydrologic variability. Increasingly, coral δ18O time series are paired with time series of strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr / Ca), a proxy for SST, from the same coral to quantify temperature and δ18Osw variability through time. To increase the utility of such reconstructions, we present the CoralHydro2k database: a compilation of published, peer-reviewed coral Sr / Ca and δ18O records from the Common Era. The database contains 54 paired Sr / Ca-δ18O records and 125 unpaired Sr / Ca or δ18O records, with 88 % of these records providing data coverage from 1800 CE to present. A quality-controlled set of metadata with standardized vocabulary and units accompanies each record, informing the use of the database. The CoralHydro2k database tracks large-scale temperature and hydrological variability. As such, it is well-suited for investigations of past climate variability, comparisons with climate model simulations including isotope-enabled models – and application in paleo-data assimilation projects.The CoralHydro2k database will be available on the NOAA National Center for Environmental Information’s Paleoclimate data service with serializations in MATLAB, R, Python, and LiPD. 

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