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1. Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022  

   Erb, Michael P.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Steiger, Nathan; Dee, Sylvia; Hancock, Chris; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Valdes, Paul (January 2022, Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. Paleoclimatic records provide valuable information about Holocene climate, revealing aspects of climate variability for a multitude of sites around the world. However, such data also possess limitations. Proxy networks are spatially uneven, seasonally biased, uncertain in time, and present a variety of challenges when used in concert to illustrate the complex variations of past climate. Paleoclimatic data assimilation provides one approach to reconstructing past climate that can account for the diversenature of proxy records while maintaining the physics-based covariancestructures simulated by climate models. Here, we use paleoclimate dataassimilation to create a spatially complete reconstruction of temperatureover the past 12 000 years using proxy data from the Temperature 12k database and output from transient climate model simulations. Following the last glacial period, the reconstruction shows Holocene temperatures warming to a peak near 6400 years ago followed by a slow cooling toward the present day, supporting a mid-Holocene which is at least as warm as the preindustrial. Sensitivity tests show that if proxies have an overlooked summer bias, some apparent mid-Holocene warmth could actually represent summer trends rather than annual mean trends. Regardless, the potential effects of proxy seasonal biases are insufficient to align the reconstructed global mean temperature with the warming trends seen in transient model simulations. 

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2. Local to Regional Hydroclimate Changes in the Tropical Andes Since the Mid-Holocene

   Konecky, B; Mauceri, A; Sae-Lim, J; Bird, B; Castañeda, I; Correa-Metrio, A; Escobar, J; Grooms, C; Hutchings, J; Michelutti, N; et al (December 2024, American Geophysical Union)

   Climate changes during the mid- to late-Holocene, after the last vestiges of glacial ice sheets dwindled, provide important context for climate change today. In the tropical Andes, most of the continuous paleoclimate records covering the late Holocene are derived from the oxygen isotope composition of ice cores, speleothems, and lake carbonates. These archives are powerful recorders of large-scale changes in circulation and monsoon intensity, but they do not necessarily capture local moisture balance, and so reconstructions of local precipitation and aridity remain scarce. Here we present contrasting histories of local effective moisture vs. regional circulation from several new biomarker records preserved in lakes and peat in the Colombian and Peruvian Andes. We focus on the hydrogen isotope composition of long-chain plant waxes, which reflects precipitation δ2H similarly to δ18O from ice cores and speleothems; and the δ13C of waxes and the δ2H of mid-chain waxes, which reflect local water stress and effective moisture. In both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropical Andes, fairly gradual δ2H shifts during the late Holocene indicate a progressive intensification of circulation in the South American lowlands. On the other hand, plant wax δ13C and mid-chain δ2H records indicate abrupt transitions into and out of intervals of water stress and aridity – similar to findings from pollen and sediment lithology from elsewhere in the tropical Andes. We draw on climate models and proxy data syntheses to help reconcile these curiously different accounts of effective moisture in the tropical Andes since the mid-Holocene and discuss implications for modern climate research. 

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3. North American Hydroclimate During Past Warms States: A Proxy Compilation‐Model Comparison for the Last Interglacial and the Mid‐Holocene

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004528  

   de Wet, C. B.; Ibarra, D. E.; Belanger, B. K.; Oster, J. L. (June 2023, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract During the mid‐Holocene (MH: ∼6,000 years Before Present) and Last Interglacial LIG (LIG: ∼129,000–116,000 years Before Present) differences in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation drove Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude warming comparable to that projected for the end of the 21st century in low emissions scenarios. Paleoclimate proxy records point to distinct but regionally variable hydroclimatic changes during these past warm intervals. However, model simulations have generally disagreed on North American regional moisture patterns during the MH and LIG. To investigate how closely the latest generation of models associated with the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) reproduces proxy‐inferred moisture patterns during recent warm periods, we compare hydroclimate output from 17 PMIP4 models with newly updated compilations of moisture‐sensitive North American proxy records during the MH and LIG. Agreement is lower for the MH, with models producing wet anomalies across the western United States (US) where most proxies indicate increased aridity relative to the preindustrial period. The models that agree most closely with the LIG proxy compilation display relative wetness in the eastern US and Alaska, and dryness in the northwest and central US. An assessment of atmospheric dynamics using an ensemble of the three LIG simulations that best agree with the proxies suggests that weaker winter North Pacific pressure gradients and steeper summer North Pacific and Atlantic gradients drive LIG precipitation patterns. Our updated compilations and proxy‐model comparisons offer a tool for benchmarking climate models and their performance in simulating climate states that are warmer than present. 

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4. Global Synthesis of Regional Holocene Hydroclimate Variability Using Proxy and Model Data

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004597  

   Hancock, Christopher L.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Erb, Michael P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Routson, Cody R.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Valdes, Paul (June 2023, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract Substantial changes in terrestrial hydroclimate during the Holocene are recorded in geological archives and simulated by computer models. To identify spatial and temporal patterns during the past 12 ka, proxy records sensitive to changing precipitation and effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) were compiled from across the globe (n = 813). Proxy composite timeseries were computed for 30 of the IPCC AR6 regions and compared to two full‐Holocene transient model simulations (TraCE‐21ka and HadCM3) and twelve mid‐Holocene CMIP6 simulations. We find that throughout Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, proxy and model simulations indicate wetter‐than‐modern conditions during the early and mid‐Holocene while Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions were drier. This insolation driven trend toward modern values began approximately 6,000 years ago, and the clear agreement among proxy records and models may reflect the large magnitude of precipitation change and consistent atmospheric circulation forcing mechanism for these regions. In the midlatitudes, the pattern of change is less certain. Generally, proxy composites show a wetting trend throughout the Holocene for the northern midlatitudes, possibly due to strengthening westerlies from an increasing latitudinal temperature gradient. However, simulations indicate that the magnitude of change was relatively low, and for portions of North America, there is a proxy‐model disagreement. At high latitudes, hydroclimate is positively correlated with temperature in both proxies and models, consistent with projected wetting as temperatures rise. Overall, this large proxy database reveals a coherent pattern of hydroclimate variability despite the challenges associated with reconstructing hydroclimate fields. 

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5. The CoralHydro2K Database: a global, actively curated compilation of coral d18O and Sr/Ca proxy records of tropical ocean hydrology and temperature for the Common Era

   Walter, R. M. (January 2023, Earth system science data)

   The response of the hydrological cycle to anthropogenic climate change, especially across the tropical oceans, remains poorly understood due to the scarcity of long instrumental temperature and hydrological records. Massive shallow-water corals are ideally suited to reconstructing past oceanic variability as they are widely distributed across the tropics, rapidly deposit calcium carbonate skeletons that continuously record ambient environmental conditions, and can be sampled at monthly to annual resolution. Most coral-based reconstructions utilize stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) that tracks the combined change in sea surface temperature (SST) and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), a measure of hydrologic variability. Increasingly, coral δ18O time series are paired with time series of strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr / Ca), a proxy for SST, from the same coral to quantify temperature and δ18Osw variability through time. To increase the utility of such reconstructions, we present the CoralHydro2k database: a compilation of published, peer-reviewed coral Sr / Ca and δ18O records from the Common Era. The database contains 54 paired Sr / Ca-δ18O records and 125 unpaired Sr / Ca or δ18O records, with 88 % of these records providing data coverage from 1800 CE to present. A quality-controlled set of metadata with standardized vocabulary and units accompanies each record, informing the use of the database. The CoralHydro2k database tracks large-scale temperature and hydrological variability. As such, it is well-suited for investigations of past climate variability, comparisons with climate model simulations including isotope-enabled models – and application in paleo-data assimilation projects.The CoralHydro2k database will be available on the NOAA National Center for Environmental Information’s Paleoclimate data service with serializations in MATLAB, R, Python, and LiPD. 

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