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Abstract Changes to migration routes and phenology create novel contact patterns among hosts and pathogens. These novel contact patterns can lead to pathogens spilling over between resident and migrant populations. Predicting the consequences of such pathogen spillover events requires understanding how pathogen evolution depends on host movement behaviour. Following spillover, pathogens may evolve changes in their transmission rate and virulence phenotypes because different strategies are favoured by resident and migrant host populations. There is conflict in current theoretical predictions about what those differences might be. Some theory predicts lower pathogen virulence and transmission rates in migrant populations because migrants have lower tolerance to infection. Other theoretical work predicts higher pathogen virulence and transmission rates in migrants because migrants have more contacts with susceptible hosts.We aim to understand how differences in tolerance to infection and host pace of life act together to determine the direction of pathogen evolution following pathogen spillover from a resident to a migrant population.We constructed a spatially implicit model in which we investigate how pathogen strategy changes following the addition of a migrant population. We investigate how differences in tolerance to infection and pace of life between residents and migrants determine the effect of spillover on pathogen evolution and host population size.When the paces of life of the migrant and resident hosts are equal, larger costs of infection in the migrants lead to lower pathogen transmission rate and virulence following spillover. When the tolerance to infection in migrant and resident populations is equal, faster migrant paces of life lead to increased transmission rate and virulence following spillover. However, the opposite can also occur: when the migrant population has lower tolerance to infection, faster migrant paces of life can lead to decreases in transmission rate and virulence.Predicting the outcomes of pathogen spillover requires accounting for both differences in tolerance to infection and pace of life between populations. It is also important to consider how movement patterns of populations affect host contact opportunities for pathogens. These results have implications for wildlife conservation, agriculture and human health.
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Environmental Health Threats to Latino Migrant Farmworkers
Approximately 75% of farmworkers in the United States are Latino migrants, and about 50% of hired farmworkers do not have authorization to work in the United States. Farmworkers face numerous chemical, physical, and biological threats to their health. The adverse effects of these hazards may be amplified among Latino migrant farmworkers, who are concurrently exposed to various psychosocial stressors. Factors such as documentation status, potential lack of authorization to work in the United States, and language and cultural barriers may also prevent Latino migrants from accessing federal aid, legal assistance, and health programs. These environmental, occupational, and social hazards may further exacerbate existing health disparities among US Latinos. This population is also likely to be disproportionately impacted by emerging threats, including climate change and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Latino migrant farmworkers are essential to agriculture in the United States, and actions are needed to protect this vulnerable population.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824871
- PAR ID:
- 10290524
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Public Health
- Volume:
- 42
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0163-7525
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 257 to 276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105014
