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Abstract Spatial population synchrony, defined as spatial covariation in population density fluctuations, exists across different temporal and spatial scales. Determining the degree of spatial synchrony is useful for inferring environmental drivers of population variability in the wake of climate change. In this study, we applied novel statistical methods to detect spatial synchrony patterns ofCalanus finmarchicuson the Northeast U.S. Shelf at multiple spatiotemporal scales using unevenly distributed data. Our results reveal thatC. finmarchicussubpopulations connected by advection are not necessarily in synchrony, indicating that the degree of synchrony is likely influenced by heterogeneity of local habitats. In addition, regionally synchronous environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) may not play as significant a role in influencing subregional population dynamics as was previously hypothesized. Overlooking the spatial heterogeneity of synchronous patterns at different time scales could lead to erroneous inferences of potential environmental drivers responsible forC. finmarchicusvariability.
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Replication across space and time must be weak in the social and environmental sciences
Replicability takes on special meaning when researching phenomena that are embedded in space and time, including phenomena distributed on the surface and near surface of the Earth. Two principles, spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, are generally characteristic of such phenomena. Various practices have evolved in dealing with spatial heterogeneity, including the use of place-based models. We review the rapidly emerging applications of artificial intelligence to phenomena distributed in space and time and speculate on how the principle of spatial heterogeneity might be addressed. We introduce a concept of weak replicability and discuss possible approaches to its measurement.
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- PAR ID:
- 10292880
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 35
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e2015759118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015759118
