skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition
Abstract We study a new kind of nonzero-sum stochastic differential game with mixed impulse/switching controls, motivated by strategic competition in commodity markets. A representative upstream firm produces a commodity that is used by a representative downstream firm to produce a final consumption good. Both firms can influence the price of the commodity. By shutting down or increasing generation capacities, the upstream firm influences the price with impulses. By switching (or not) to a substitute, the downstream firm influences the drift of the commodity price process. We study the resulting impulse-regime switching game between the two firms, focusing on explicit threshold-type equilibria. Remarkably, this class of games naturally gives rise to multiple potential Nash equilibria, which we obtain thanks to a verification-based approach. We exhibit three candidate types of equilibria depending on the ultimate number of switches by the downstream firm (zero, one or an infinite number of switches). We illustrate the diversification effect provided by vertical integration in the specific case of the crude oil market. Our analysis shows that the diversification gains strongly depend on the pass-through from the crude price to the gasoline price.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1736439
PAR ID:
10296116
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Dynamic Games and Applications
ISSN:
2153-0785
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. We study the propagation of monetary shocks in a sticky‐price general equilibrium economy where the firms' pricing strategy features a complementarity with the decisions of other firms. In a dynamic equilibrium, the firm's price‐setting decisions depend on aggregates, which in turn depend on the firms' decisions. We cast this fixed‐point problem as a Mean Field Game and prove several analytic results. We establish existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium and characterize the impulse response function (IRF) of output following an aggregate shock. We prove that strategic complementarities make the IRF larger at each horizon. We establish that complementarities may give rise to an IRF with a hump‐shaped profile. As the complementarity becomes large enough, the IRF diverges, and at a critical point there is no equilibrium. Finally, we show that the amplification effect of the strategic interactions is similar across models: the Calvo model and the Golosov–Lucas model display a comparable amplification, in spite of the fact that the non‐neutrality in Calvo is much larger. 
    more » « less
  2. We study systemic risk in a supply chain network where firms are connected through purchase orders. Firms can be hit by cost or demand shocks, which can cause defaults. These shocks propagate through the supply chain network via input-output linkages between buyers and suppliers. Firms endogenously take contingency plans to mitigate the impact generated from disruptions. We show that, as long as firms have large initial equity buffers, network fragility is low if both buyer diversification and supplier diversification are low. We find that a single-sourcing strategy is beneficial for a firm only if the default probability of the firm’s supplier is low. Otherwise, a multiple-sourcing strategy is ex post more cost effective for a firm. Funding: J.R. Birge acknowledges financial support from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The research of A. Capponi has been supported by the NSF/CMMI CAREER-1752326 award. P.-C. Chen acknowledges financial support from the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong [Early Career Scheme Grant 27210118]. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2409 . 
    more » « less
  3. We consider a minimization variant on the classical prophet inequality with monomial cost functions. A firm would like to procure some fixed amount of a divisible commodity from sellers that arrive sequentially. Whenever a seller arrives, the seller’s cost function is revealed, and the firm chooses how much of the commodity to buy. We first show that if one restricts the set of distributions for the coefficients to a family of natural distributions that include, for example, the uniform and truncated normal distributions, then there is a thresholding policy that is asymptotically optimal in the number of sellers. We then compare two scenarios based on whether the firm has in-house production capabilities or not. We precisely compute the optimal algorithm’s competitive ratio when in-house production capabilities exist and for a special case when they do not. We show that the main advantage of the ability to produce the commodity in house is that it shields the firm from price spikes in worst-case scenarios. Funding: This work was supported by NSF Grants [CNS-2146814, CPS-2136197, CNS-2106403, NGSDI-2105648]. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Research SummaryWe study the processes of firm growth in the evolution of the Japanese cotton spinning industry during 1883–1914 by integrating strategy and historical approaches and utilizing rich quantitative firm‐level data and detailed business histories. The resultant conceptual model highlights growth outcomes of path dependencies as firms evolve across periods of single versus shared leadership, establish stability in shared leadership, or experience repeated discord‐induced top management team (TMT) leader departures. While most firms do not experience smooth transitions to stable shared TMT leadership, a focus on value creation, in conjunction with talent recruitment and promotion, enabled some firms to achieve stable shared leadership despite discord‐induced departures, engage in long‐term expansion, and emerge as “centers of gravity” for output and talent in the industry. Managerial SummaryWe demonstrate stable shared leadership is at root of firms who emerge as centers of gravity in an industry and account for the lion's share of output. Stable shared leadership enables growth strategies such as talent recruitment, product diversification, downstream integration, and acquisitions. Stable shared leadership, however, is extremely difficult to maintain. Most firms experience discord‐induced departures in TMTs due to politics and power struggles. Firms that deviate from this norm to become industry leaders achieve stable shared leadership by adhering to fundamental principles related to long‐term value creation as opposed to short‐term gain, adoption of merit‐based promotion systems in defiance of stereotypes, sharing of power within TMT leadership to enable efficient division of labor, and honorable resolution of conflicts and ethical breaches. 
    more » « less
  5. We report on the formalization in Ssreflect/Coq of a number of concepts and results from algorithmic game theory, including potential games, smooth games, solution concepts such as Pure and Mixed Nash Equilibria, Coarse Correlated Equilibria, epsilon-approximate equilibria, and behavioral models of games such as best-response dynamics. We apply the formalization to prove Price of Stability bounds for, and convergence under best-response dynamics of, the Atomic Routing game, which has applications in computer networking. Our second application proves that Affine Congestion games are (5/3, 1/3)-smooth, and therefore have Price of Anarchy 5/2. Our formalization is available online. 
    more » « less