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1. A Causal Lens for Peeking into Black Box Predictive Models: Predictive Model Interpretation via Causal Attribution

   Khademi, Aria ; Honavar, Vasant ( January 2020 , ArXivorg)

   With the increasing adoption of predictive models trained using machine learning across a wide range of high-stakes applications, e.g., health care, security, criminal justice, finance, and education, there is a growing need for effective techniques for explaining such models and their predictions. We aim to address this problem in settings where the predictive model is a black box; That is, we can only observe the response of the model to various inputs, but have no knowledge about the internal structure of the predictive model, its parameters, the objective function, and the algorithm used to optimize the model. We reduce the problem of interpreting a black box predictive model to that of estimating the causal effects of each of the model inputs on the model output, from observations of the model inputs and the corresponding outputs. We estimate the causal effects of model inputs on model output using variants of the Rubin Neyman potential outcomes framework for estimating causal effects from observational data. We show how the resulting causal attribution of responsibility for model output to the different model inputs can be used to interpret the predictive model and to explain its predictions. We present results of experiments that demonstrate themore »effectiveness of our approach to the interpretation of black box predictive models via causal attribution in the case of deep neural network models trained on one synthetic data set (where the input variables that impact the output variable are known by design) and two real-world data sets: Handwritten digit classification, and Parkinson's disease severity prediction. Because our approach does not require knowledge about the predictive model algorithm and is free of assumptions regarding the black box predictive model except that its input-output responses be observable, it can be applied, in principle, to any black box predictive model.« less
2. xGAIL: Explainable Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning for Explainable Human Decision Analysis

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3394486.3403186  

   Pan, Menghai ; Huang, Weixiao ; Li, Yanhua ; Zhou, Xun ; Luo, Jun ( August 2020 , Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining)

   To make daily decisions, human agents devise their own "strategies" governing their mobility dynamics (e.g., taxi drivers have preferred working regions and times, and urban commuters have preferred routes and transit modes). Recent research such as generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL) demonstrates successes in learning human decision-making strategies from their behavior data using deep neural networks (DNNs), which can accurately mimic how humans behave in various scenarios, e.g., playing video games, etc. However, such DNN-based models are "black box" models in nature, making it hard to explain what knowledge the models have learned from human, and how the models make such decisions, which was not addressed in the literature of imitation learning. This paper addresses this research gap by proposing xGAIL, the first explainable generative adversarial imitation learning framework. The proposed xGAIL framework consists of two novel components, including Spatial Activation Maximization (SpatialAM) and Spatial Randomized Input Sampling Explanation (SpatialRISE), to extract both global and local knowledge from a well-trained GAIL model that explains how a human agent makes decisions. Especially, we take taxi drivers' passenger-seeking strategy as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed xGAIL framework. Our analysis on a large-scale real-world taxi trajectory data shows promisingmore »results from two aspects: i) global explainable knowledge of what nearby traffic condition impels a taxi driver to choose a particular direction to find the next passenger, and ii) local explainable knowledge of what key (sometimes hidden) factors a taxi driver considers when making a particular decision.« less
3. Heterogeneous Ensemble Knowledge Transfer for Training Large Models in Federated Learning

   Yae Jee Cho ; Andre Manoel ; Gauri Joshi ; Robert Sim ; Dimitrios Dimitriadis ( April 2022 , Proceedings of the Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) Main Track)

   Federated learning (FL) enables edge-devices to collaboratively learn a model without disclosing their private data to a central aggregating server. Most existing FL algorithms require models of identical architecture to be deployed across the clients and server, making it infeasible to train large models due to clients' limited system resources. In this work, we propose a novel ensemble knowledge transfer method named Fed-ET in which small models (different in architecture) are trained on clients, and used to train a larger model at the server. Unlike in conventional ensemble learning, in FL the ensemble can be trained on clients' highly heterogeneous data. Cognizant of this property, Fed-ET uses a weighted consensus distillation scheme with diversity regularization that efficiently extracts reliable consensus from the ensemble while improving generalization by exploiting the diversity within the ensemble. We show the generalization bound for the ensemble of weighted models trained on heterogeneous datasets that supports the intuition of Fed-ET. Our experiments on image and language tasks show that Fed-ET significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art FL algorithms with fewer communicated parameters, and is also robust against high data-heterogeneity.
4. AI/ML for Network Security: The Emperor has no Clothes

   Jacobs, Arthur ; Beltiukov, Roman ; Willinger, Walter ; Ferreira, Ronaldo ; Gupta, arpit ; Granville Lisandro ( January 2022 , ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security (CCS))

   Several recent research efforts have proposed Machine Learning (ML)-based solutions that can detect complex patterns in network traffic for a wide range of network security problems. However, without understanding how these black-box models are making their decisions, network operators are reluctant to trust and deploy them in their production settings. One key reason for this reluctance is that these models are prone to the problem of underspecification, defined here as the failure to specify a model in adequate detail. Not unique to the network security domain, this problem manifests itself in ML models that exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when deployed in real-world settings and has prompted growing interest in developing interpretable ML solutions (e.g., decision trees) for “explaining” to humans how a given black-box model makes its decisions. However, synthesizing such explainable models that capture a given black-box model’s decisions with high fidelity while also being practical (i.e., small enough in size for humans to comprehend) is challenging. In this paper, we focus on synthesizing high-fidelity and low-complexity decision trees to help network operators determine if their ML models suffer from the problem of underspecification. To this end, we present TRUSTEE, a framework that takes an existing ML model andmore »training dataset generate a high-fidelity, easy-to-interpret decision tree, and associated trust report. Using published ML models that are fully reproducible, we show how practitioners can use TRUSTEE to identify three common instances of model underspecification, i.e., evidence of shortcut learning, spurious correlations, and vulnerability to out-of-distribution samples.« less
5. Physics-informed Dyna-style model-based deep reinforcement learning for dynamic control

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0618  

   Liu, Xin-Yang ; Wang, Jian-Xun ( November 2021 , Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences)

   Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is believed to have much higher sample efficiency compared with model-free algorithms by learning a predictive model of the environment. However, the performance of MBRL highly relies on the quality of the learned model, which is usually built in a black-box manner and may have poor predictive accuracy outside of the data distribution. The deficiencies of the learned model may prevent the policy from being fully optimized. Although some uncertainty analysis-based remedies have been proposed to alleviate this issue, model bias still poses a great challenge for MBRL. In this work, we propose to leverage the prior knowledge of underlying physics of the environment, where the governing laws are (partially) known. In particular, we developed a physics-informed MBRL framework, where governing equations and physical constraints are used to inform the model learning and policy search. By incorporating the prior information of the environment, the quality of the learned model can be notably improved, while the required interactions with the environment are significantly reduced, leading to better sample efficiency and learning performance. The effectiveness and merit have been demonstrated over a handful of classic control problems, where the environments are governed by canonical ordinary/partial differential equations.