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Abstract Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences.
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Spread of the New Coral Disease “SCTLD” into the Caribbean: Implications for Puerto Rico
The recent spread chronology, impact and description of the new Caribbean coral disease iStony coral tissue lost diseases (SCTLD) in the northern Caribbean and specifically, its status in Puerto Rico up to the late 2019.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2000863
- PAR ID:
- 10300344
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Coral reef newsletter
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 47
- ISSN:
- 0278-324X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 38-43
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
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