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1. The Seasonal Cycles of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature from Earth’s Axial Tilt and Orbital Eccentricity

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0005.1  

   Chiang, JCH; Kong, LYL (July 2025, Journal of Climate)

   We explore the relative roles of Earth’s axial tilt (‘tilt effect’) and orbital eccentricity (‘distance effect’) in generating the seasonal cycle of tropical sea surface temperature (SST), decomposing the two contributions using simulations of an Earth System model varying eccentricity and longitude of perihelion. Tropical SST seasonality is largely explained by the annual contribution from tilt, but with significant contributions from the semiannual contribution from tilt and annual contribution from distance, especially in regions where the tilt annual contribution is relatively small. Precessional changes to tropical SST seasonality are readily explained by the distance annual component whose amplitude increases linearly with eccentricity and whose phase changes linearly with the longitude of perihelion, while the tilt contributions remain essentially unchanged. As such, the annual cycle contribution from distance can become significant at high eccentricity (e > 0.05) and dominate the SST annual cycle in some regions of the Tropics. The annual cycle tropical SST response to the distance effect consists of a tropics-wide warming peaking ∼2 months after perihelion consistent with a direct thermodynamic effect, and a dynamic contribution characterized by a cooling of the Pacific cold tongue peaking 5-6 months after perihelion. For current orbital conditions, the thermodynamic contribution acts to dampen the tropical SST seasonal cycle of the northern hemisphere from the tilt influence and amplify it in the southern hemisphere. The dynamic contribution acts to shift the Pacific cold tongue seasonal cycle arising from tilt to earlier in the season, by ∼1 month. 

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2. Energetic Constraints on the Pattern of Changes to the Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0337.1  

   Bonan, David B.; Siler, Nicholas; Roe, Gerard H.; Armour, Kyle C. (May 2023, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract The response of zonal-mean precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E ) to global warming is investigated using a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a simple Hadley cell parameterization. The MEBM accurately emulates zonal-mean P − E change simulated by a suite of global climate models (GCMs) under greenhouse gas forcing. The MEBM also accounts for most of the intermodel differences in GCM P − E change and better emulates GCM P − E change when compared to the “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” thermodynamic mechanism. The intermodel spread in P − E change is attributed to intermodel differences in radiative feedbacks, which account for 60%–70% of the intermodel variance, with smaller contributions from radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. Isolating the intermodel spread of feedbacks to specific regions shows that tropical feedbacks are the primary source of intermodel spread in zonal-mean P − E change. The ability of the MEBM to emulate GCM P − E change is further investigated using idealized feedback patterns. A less negative and narrowly peaked feedback pattern near the equator results in more atmospheric heating, which strengthens the Hadley cell circulation in the deep tropics through an enhanced poleward heat flux. This pattern also increases gross moist stability, which weakens the subtropical Hadley cell circulation. These two processes in unison increase P − E in the deep tropics, decrease P − E in the subtropics, and narrow the intertropical convergence zone. Additionally, a feedback pattern that produces polar-amplified warming partially reduces the poleward moisture flux by weakening the meridional temperature gradient. It is shown that changes to the Hadley cell circulation and the poleward moisture flux are crucial for understanding the pattern of GCM P − E change under warming. Significance Statement Changes to the hydrological cycle over the twenty-first century are predicted to impact ecosystems and socioeconomic activities throughout the world. While it is broadly expected that dry regions will get drier and wet regions will get wetter, the magnitude and spatial structure of these changes remains uncertain. In this study, we use an idealized climate model, which assumes how energy is transported in the atmosphere, to understand the processes setting the pattern of precipitation and evaporation under global warming. We first use the idealized climate model to explain why comprehensive climate models predict different changes to precipitation and evaporation across a range of latitudes. We show this arises primarily from climate feedbacks, which act to amplify or dampen the amount of warming. Ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing play secondary roles but can account for a significant amount of the uncertainty in regions where ocean circulation influences the rate of warming. We further show that uncertainty in tropical feedbacks (mainly from clouds) affects changes to the hydrological cycle across a range of latitudes. We then show how the pattern of climate feedbacks affects how the patterns of precipitation and evaporation respond to climate change through a set of idealized experiments. These results show how the pattern of climate feedbacks impacts tropical hydrological changes by affecting the strength of the Hadley circulation and polar hydrological changes by affecting the transport of moisture to the high latitudes. 

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3. Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682  

   Tierney, Jessica E.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; deMenocal, Peter B. (October 2015, Science Advances)

   The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March–May “long rains” season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September–November “short rains” season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. 

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4. Subseasonal convection variability over the Intra‐American Seas simulated by an AGCM and sensitivity to CMIP5 SST biases and projections

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6475  

   Vigaud, N (January 2020, International journal of climatology)

   The influence of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) climatological biases and SST projections on daily convection over the Intra-American Seas (IAS) during the May–November rainy season are examined by clustering (k − means) daily OLR anomalies in ECHAM5 atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) experiments. The AGCM is first forced by 1980–2005 observed SSTs (GOGA), then with climatological, multi-model mean monthly climatological SST bias from 31 CMIP5 coupled models (HIST) and projected SST changes for 2040–2059 (PROJ) and 2080–2099 (PROJ2) imposed on top of observed values. A typology of seven recurrent convection regimes is identified and consists of three dry and four wet regimes, including three regimes characterized by tropical-midlatitude interactions between surface convection cells across the IAS and Rossby wave in the upper-troposphere, and a regime of broad wettening typical of the ITCZ. Compared to an earlier observational study, all seven regimes are reasonably well reproduced in the HIST runs. However, the latter exhibit drier dry regimes, a less wet ITCZ-like wet regime and a southeastward shift of convective anomalies developing across the IAS in the three other regimes, all result in a drier simulated IAS climate compared to GOGA. ECHAM5 projection runs for PROJ and PROJ2 are both characterized by the inhibition of the broad ITCZ-like wet regime, indicating a significant trend towards more frequent dry weather. Meanwhile, convection anomalies related to tropical-midlatitude interactions are shifted further east of the Caribbean as lead increases. These results suggest more frequent and intense extreme rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and the southeast US, while parts of the Caribbean are projected to experience drier climate. The projected drying, however, is of the same order of magnitude as results from historical SST biases, suggesting that the latter need to be considered in model projections, which might underestimate future IAS drying. 

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5. Constraining Regional Hydrological Sensitivity Over Tropical Oceans

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109374  

   He, Jie; Deng, Yi; Fosu, Boniface; Lin, Yen‐Heng; Lu, Kezhou (September 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Regional hydrological sensitivity (i.e., precipitation change per degree local surface warming) contributes substantially to the uncertainty in future precipitation projections over tropical oceans. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of relative precipitation (P*, precipitation divided by the basin average precipitation) to local sea surface temperature (SST) change by dissecting it into three components, namely the sensitivity of P* to relative SST (SST_rel, SST minus the tropical mean SST) changes, the sensitivity of P* to surface convergence changes, and the sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes. We show that the relationships between P* and SST_rel, and between P*, surface convergence, and SST gradients are largely constant during climate change. This allows us to constrain regional hydrological sensitivity based on present‐day SST‐precipitation relationships. The sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes is a main source of uncertainty in regional hydrological sensitivity and is likely underestimated in GCMs. 

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