Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62‐year period. Decadal‐scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955–1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975–2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000–2017) in the ~30,000‐km2study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5‐m‐resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries.
Potential Future Lake Drainage for the Western Arctic Coastal Plain in northern Alaska from an Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR)-Derived Digital Surface Model, 2002-2003
Assessment of lakes for their future potential to drain relied on the 2002/03 airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) Digital Surface Model (DSM) data for the western Arctic Coastal Plain in northern Alaska. Lakes were extracted from the IfSAR DSM using a slope derivative and manual correction (Jones et al., 2017). The vertical uncertainty for correctly detecting lake-based drainage gradients with the IfSAR DSM was defined by comparing surface elevation differences of several overlapping DSM tile edges. This comparison showed standard deviations of elevation between overlapping IfSAR tiles ranging from 0.0 to 0.6 meters (m). Thus, we chose a minimum height difference of 0.6 m to represent a detectable elevation gradient adjacent to a lake as being most likely to contribute to a rapid drainage event. This value is also in agreement with field verified estimates of the relative vertical accuracy (~0.5 m) of the DSM dataset around Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) (Manley et al., 2005) and the stated vertical RMSE (~1.0 m) of the DSM data (Intermap, 2010). Development of the potential lake drainage dataset involved several processing steps. First, lakes were classified as potential future drainage candidates if the difference between the elevation of the lake surface and the lowest elevation within a 100 m buffer of the lake shoreline exceeded our chosen threshold of 0.6 m. Next, we selected lakes with a minimum size of 10 ha to match the historic lake drainage dataset. We further filtered the dataset by selecting lakes estimated to have low hydrological connectivity based on relations between lake contributing area as determined for specific surficial geology types and presented in Jones et al. (2017). This was added to the future projection workflow to isolate the lake population that likely responds to changes in surface area driven largely by geomorphic change as opposed to differences in surface hydrology. Lakes within a basin with low to no hydrologic connectivity that had an elevation change gradient between the lake surface and surrounding landscape are considered likely locations to assess for future drainage potential. Further, the greater the elevation difference, the greater the drainage potential. This dataset provided a first-order estimate of lakes classified as being prone to future drainage. We further refined our assessment of potential drainage lakes by identifying the location of the point with the lowest elevation within the 100 m buffer of the lake shoreline and manually interpreted lakes to have a high drainage potential based on the location of the likely drainage point to known lake drainage pathways using circa 2002 orthophotography or more recent high resolution satellite imagery available for the Western Coastal Arctic Plain (WACP). Lakes classified as having a high drainage potential typically had the likely drainage location associated with one or more of the following: (1) an adjacent lake, (2) the cutbank of a river, (3) the ocean, (4) were located in an area with dense ice-wedge networks, (5) appeared to coincide with a potentially headward eroding stream, or (6) were associated with thermokarst lake shoreline processes in the moderate to high ground ice content terrain. We also added information on potential lake drainage pathways to the high potential drainage dataset by manually interpreting the landform associated with the likely drainage site to draw comparisons with the historic lake drainage dataset.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1806213
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10303027
- Publisher / Repository:
- Arctic Data Center
- Date Published:
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- ["Arctic Lake","Lake Drainage","Drained Lake Basin","Thermokarst Lake"]
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Other: text/xml
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
Taken together, lakes and drained lake basins may cover up to 80% of the lowland landscapes in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Lake formation, growth, and drainage in lowland permafrost regions create a terrestrial and aquatic landscape mosaic of importance to geomorphic and hydrologic processes, tundra vegetation communities, permafrost and ground-ice characteristics, biogeochemical cycling, wildlife habitat, and human land-use activities. Our project focuses on quantifying the role of thermokarst lake expansion, drainage, and drained lake basin evolution in the Arctic System. We did this through a combination of field studies, environmental sensor networks, remote sensing, and modeling. This dataset consists of an orthomosaic and digital surface model (DSM) derived from drone surveys on 19 and 20 July 2022 at the Bugeye Lakes Complex on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. 5,968 digital images were acquired from a DJI Phantom 4 Real-Time Kinematic (DJI P4RTK) quadcopter with a DJI D-RTK 2 Mobile Base Station. The mapped area was around 320 hectares (ha). The drone system was flown at 120 meters (m) above ground level (agl) and flight speeds varied from 7–8 meters/second (m/s). The orientation of the camera was set to 90 degrees (i.e. looking straight down). The along-track overlap and across-track overlap of the mission were set at 80% and 70%, respectively. All images were processed in the software Pix4D Mapper (v. 4.8.4) using the standard 3D Maps workflow and the accurate geolocation and orientation calibration method to produce the orthophoto mosaic and digital surface model at spatial resolutions of 5 and 10 centimeters (cm), respectively. A Leica Viva differential global positioning system (GPS) provided ground control for the mission and the data were post-processed to WGS84 UTM Zone 5 North in Ellipsoid Heights (meters). Elevation information derived over waterbodies is noisy and does not represent the surface elevation of the feature.more » « less
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The phenology of critical biological events in aquatic ecosystems are rapidly shifting due to climate change. Growing variability in phenological cues can increase the likelihood of trophic mismatches, causing recruitment failures in commercially, culturally, and recreationally important fisheries. We tested for changes in spawning phenology of regionally important walleye (Sander vitreus) populations in 194 Midwest US lakes in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin spanning 1939-2019 to investigate factors influencing walleye phenological responses to climate change and associated climate variability, including ice-off timing, lake physical characteristics, and population stocking history. Data from Wisconsin and Michigan lakes (185 and 5 out of 194 total lakes, respectively) were collected by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) and the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) through standardized spring walleye mark-recapture surveys and spring tribal harvest season records. Standardized spring mark-recapture population estimates are performed shortly after ice-off, where following a marking event, a subsequent recapture sampling event is conducted using nighttime electrofishing (typically AC – WDNR, pulsed-DC – GLIFWC) of the entire shoreline including islands for small lakes and index stations for large lakes (Hansen et al. 2015) that is timed to coincide with peak walleye spawning activity (G. Hatzenbeler, WDNR, personal communication; M. Luehring, GLIFWC, personal communication; Beard et al. 1997). Data for four additional Minnesota lakes were collected by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) beginning in 1939 during annual collections of walleye eggs and broodstock (Schneider et al. 2010), where date of peak egg take was used to index peak spawning activity. For lakes where spawning location did not match the lake for which the ice-off data was collected, the spawning location either flowed into (Pike River) or was within 50 km of a lake where ice-off data were available (Pine River) and these ice-off data were used. Following the affirmation of off-reservation Ojibwe tribal fishing rights in the Ceded Territories of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in 1987, tribal spearfishers have targeted walleye during spring spawning (Mrnak et al. 2018). Nightly harvests are recorded as part of a compulsory creel survey (US Department of the Interior 1991). Using these records, we calculated the date of peak spawning activity in a given lake-year as the day of maximum tribal harvest. Although we were unable to account for varying effort in these data, a preliminary analysis comparing spawning dates estimated using tribal harvest to those determined from standardized agency surveys in the same lake and year showed that they were highly correlated (Pearson’s correlation: r = 0.91, P < 0.001). For lakes that had walleye spawning data from both agency surveys and tribal harvest, we used the data source with the greatest number of observation years. Ice-off phenology data was collected from two sources – either observed from the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology database (Benson et al. 2000)t, or modeled from a USGS region-wide machine-learning model which used North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological inputs combined with lake characteristics (lake position, clarity, size, depth, hypsography, etc.) to predict daily water column temperatures from 1979 - 2022, from which ice-off dates could be derived (https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/6206d3c2d34ec05caca53071; see Corson-Dosch et al. 2023 for details). Modeled data for our study lakes (see (Read et al. 2021) for modeling details), which performed well in reflecting ice phenology when compared to observed data (i.e., highly significant correlation between observed and modeled ice-off dates when both were available; r = 0.71, p < 0.001). Lake surface area (ha), latitude, and maximum depth (m) were acquired from agency databases and lake reports. Lake class was based on a WDNR lakes classification system (Rypel et al. 2019) that categorized lakes based on temperature, water clarity, depth, and fish community. Walleye stocking history was defined using the walleye stocking classification system developed by the Wisconsin Technical Working Group (see also Sass et al. 2021), which categorized lakes based on relative contributions of naturally-produced and stocked fish to adult recruitment by relying heavily on historic records of age-0 and age-1 catch rates and stocking histories. Wisconsin lakes were divided into three groups: natural recruitment (NR), a combination of stocking and natural recruitment (C-ST), and stocked only (ST). Walleye natural recruitment was indexed as age-0 walleye CPE (number of age-0 walleye captured per km of shoreline electrofished) from WDNR and GLIFWC fall electrofishing surveys (see Hansen et al. 2015 for details). We excluded lake-years where stocking of age-0 fish occurred before age-0 surveys to only include measurements of naturally-reproduced fish.more » « less
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Site description. This data package consists of data obtained from sampling surface soil (the 0-7.6 cm depth profile) in black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) dominated forest and black needlerush (Juncus roemerianus) saltmarsh along the Gulf of Mexico coastline in peninsular west-central Florida, USA. This location has a subtropical climate with mean daily temperatures ranging from 15.4 °C in January to 27.8 °C in August, and annual precipitation of 1336 mm. Precipitation falls as rain primarily between June and September. Tides are semi-diurnal, with 0.57 m median amplitudes during the year preceding sampling (U.S. NOAA National Ocean Service, Clearwater Beach, Florida, station 8726724). Sea-level rise is 4.0 ± 0.6 mm per year (1973-2020 trend, mean ± 95 % confidence interval, NOAA NOS Clearwater Beach station). The A. germinans mangrove zone is either adjacent to water or fringed on the seaward side by a narrow band of red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). A near-monoculture of J. roemerianus is often adjacent to and immediately landward of the A. germinans zone. The transition from the mangrove to the J. roemerianus zone is variable in our study area. An abrupt edge between closed-canopy mangrove and J. roemerianus monoculture may extend for up to several hundred meters in some locations, while other stretches of ecotone present a gradual transition where smaller, widely spaced trees are interspersed into the herbaceous marsh. Juncus roemerianus then extends landward to a high marsh patchwork of succulent halophytes (including Salicornia bigellovi, Sesuvium sp., and Batis maritima), scattered dwarf mangrove, and salt pans, followed in turn by upland vegetation that includes Pinus sp. and Serenoa repens. Field design and sample collection. We established three study sites spaced at approximately 5 km intervals along the western coastline of the central Florida peninsula. The sites consisted of the Salt Springs (28.3298°, -82.7274°), Energy Marine Center (28.2903°, -82.7278°), and Green Key (28.2530°, -82.7496°) sites on the Gulf of Mexico coastline in Pasco County, Florida, USA. At each site, we established three plot pairs, each consisting of one saltmarsh plot and one mangrove plot. Plots were 50 m^2 in size. Plots pairs within a site were separated by 230-1070 m, and the mangrove and saltmarsh plots composing a pair were 70-170 m apart. All plot pairs consisted of directly adjacent patches of mangrove forest and J. roemerianus saltmarsh, with the mangrove forests exhibiting a closed canopy and a tree architecture (height 4-6 m, crown width 1.5-3 m). Mangrove plots were located at approximately the midpoint between the seaward edge (water-mangrove interface) and landward edge (mangrove-marsh interface) of the mangrove zone. Saltmarsh plots were located 20-25 m away from any mangrove trees and into the J. roemerianus zone (i.e., landward from the mangrove-marsh interface). Plot pairs were coarsely similar in geomorphic setting, as all were located on the Gulf of Mexico coastline, rather than within major sheltering formations like Tampa Bay, and all plot pairs fit the tide-dominated domain of the Woodroffe classification (Woodroffe, 2002, "Coasts: Form, Process and Evolution", Cambridge University Press), given their conspicuous semi-diurnal tides. There was nevertheless some geomorphic variation, as some plot pairs were directly open to the Gulf of Mexico while others sat behind keys and spits or along small tidal creeks. Our use of a plot-pair approach is intended to control for this geomorphic variation. Plot center elevations (cm above mean sea level, NAVD 88) were estimated by overlaying the plot locations determined with a global positioning system (Garmin GPS 60, Olathe, KS, USA) on a LiDAR-derived bare-earth digital elevation model (Dewberry, Inc., 2019). The digital elevation model had a vertical accuracy of ± 10 cm (95 % CI) and a horizontal accuracy of ± 116 cm (95 % CI). Soil samples were collected via coring at low tide in June 2011. From each plot, we collected a composite soil sample consisting of three discrete 5.1 cm diameter soil cores taken at equidistant points to 7.6 cm depth. Cores were taken by tapping a sleeve into the soil until its top was flush with the soil surface, sliding a hand under the core, and lifting it up. Cores were then capped and transferred on ice to our laboratory at the University of South Florida (Tampa, Florida, USA), where they were combined in plastic zipper bags, and homogenized by hand into plot-level composite samples on the day they were collected. A damp soil subsample was immediately taken from each composite sample to initiate 1 y incubations for determination of active C and N (see below). The remainder of each composite sample was then placed in a drying oven (60 °C) for 1 week with frequent mixing of the soil to prevent aggregation and liberate water. Organic wetland soils are sometimes dried at 70 °C, however high drying temperatures can volatilize non-water liquids and oxidize and decompose organic matter, so 50 °C is also a common drying temperature for organic soils (Gardner 1986, "Methods of Soil Analysis: Part 1", Soil Science Society of America); we accordingly chose 60 °C as a compromise between sufficient water removal and avoidance of non-water mass loss. Bulk density was determined as soil dry mass per core volume (adding back the dry mass equivalent of the damp subsample removed prior to drying). Dried subsamples were obtained for determination of soil organic matter (SOM), mineral texture composition, and extractable and total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) within the following week. Sample analyses. A dried subsample was apportioned from each composite sample to determine SOM as mass loss on ignition at 550 °C for 4 h. After organic matter was removed from soil via ignition, mineral particle size composition was determined using a combination of wet sieving and density separation in 49 mM (3 %) sodium hexametaphosphate ((NaPO_3)_6) following procedures in Kettler et al. (2001, Soil Science Society of America Journal 65, 849-852). The percentage of dry soil mass composed of silt and clay particles (hereafter, fines) was calculated as the mass lost from dispersed mineral soil after sieving (0.053 mm mesh sieve). Fines could have been slightly underestimated if any clay particles were burned off during the preceding ignition of soil. An additional subsample was taken from each composite sample to determine extractable N and organic C concentrations via 0.5 M potassium sulfate (K_2SO_4) extractions. We combined soil and extractant (ratio of 1 g dry soil:5 mL extractant) in plastic bottles, reciprocally shook the slurry for 1 h at 120 rpm, and then gravity filtered it through Fisher G6 (1.6 μm pore size) glass fiber filters, followed by colorimetric detection of nitrite (NO_2^-) + nitrate (NO_3^-) and ammonium (NH_4^+) in the filtrate (Hood Nowotny et al., 2010,Soil Science Society of America Journal 74, 1018-1027) using a microplate spectrophotometer (Biotek Epoch, Winooski, VT, USA). Filtrate was also analyzed for dissolved organic C (referred to hereafter as extractable organic C) and total dissolved N via combustion and oxidation followed by detection of the evolved CO_2 and N oxide gases on a Formacs HT TOC/TN analyzer (Skalar, Breda, The Netherlands). Extractable organic N was then computed as total dissolved N in filtrate minus extractable mineral N (itself the sum of extractable NH_4-N and NO_2-N + NO_3-N). We determined soil total C and N from dried, milled subsamples subjected to elemental analysis (ECS 4010, Costech, Inc., Valencia, CA, USA) at the University of South Florida Stable Isotope Laboratory. Median concentration of inorganic C in unvegetated surface soil at our sites is 0.5 % of soil mass (Anderson, 2019, Univ. of South Florida M.S. thesis via methods in Wang et al., 2011, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 174, 241-257). Inorganic C concentrations are likely even lower in our samples from under vegetation, where organic matter would dilute the contribution of inorganic C to soil mass. Nevertheless, the presence of a small inorganic C pool in our soils may be counted in the total C values we report. Extractable organic C is necessarily of organic C origin given the method (sparging with HCl) used in detection. Active C and N represent the fractions of organic C and N that are mineralizable by soil microorganisms under aerobic conditions in long-term soil incubations. To quantify active C and N, 60 g of field-moist soil were apportioned from each composite sample, placed in a filtration apparatus, and incubated in the dark at 25 °C and field capacity moisture for 365 d (as in Lewis et al., 2014, Ecosphere 5, art59). Moisture levels were maintained by frequently weighing incubated soil and wetting them up to target mass. Daily CO_2 flux was quantified on 29 occasions at 0.5-3 week intervals during the incubation period (with shorter intervals earlier in the incubation), and these per day flux rates were integrated over the 365 d period to compute an estimate of active C. Observations of per day flux were made by sealing samples overnight in airtight chambers fitted with septa and quantifying headspace CO_2 accumulation by injecting headspace samples (obtained through the septa via needle and syringe) into an infrared gas analyzer (PP Systems EGM 4, Amesbury, MA, USA). To estimate active N, each incubated sample was leached with a C and N free, 35 psu solution containing micronutrients (Nadelhoffer, 1990, Soil Science Society of America Journal 54, 411-415) on 19 occasions at increasing 1-6 week intervals during the 365 d incubation, and then extracted in 0.5 M K_2SO_4 at the end of the incubation in order to remove any residual mineral N. Active N was then quantified as the total mass of mineral N leached and extracted. Mineral N in leached and extracted solutions was detected as NH_4-N and NO_2-N + NO_3-N via colorimetry as above. This incubation technique precludes new C and N inputs and persistently leaches mineral N, forcing microorganisms to meet demand by mineralizing existing pools, and thereby directly assays the potential activity of soil organic C and N pools present at the time of soil sampling. Because this analysis commences with disrupting soil physical structure, it is biased toward higher estimates of active fractions. Calculations. Non-mobile C and N fractions were computed as total C and N concentrations minus the extractable and active fractions of each element. This data package reports surface-soil constituents (moisture, fines, SOM, and C and N pools and fractions) in both gravimetric units (mass constituent / mass soil) and areal units (mass constituent / soil surface area integrated through 7.6 cm soil depth, the depth of sampling). Areal concentrations were computed as X × D × 7.6, where X is the gravimetric concentration of a soil constituent, D is soil bulk density (g dry soil / cm^3), and 7.6 is the sampling depth in cm.more » « less
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Taken together, lakes and drained lake basins may cover up to 80% of the lowland landscapes in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Lake formation, growth, and drainage in lowland permafrost regions create a terrestrial and aquatic landscape mosaic of importance to geomorphic and hydrologic processes, tundra vegetation communities, permafrost and ground-ice characteristics, biogeochemical cycling, wildlife habitat, and human land-use activities. Our project focuses on quantifying the role of thermokarst lake expansion, drainage, and drained lake basin evolution in the Arctic System. We did this through a combination of field studies, environmental sensor networks, remote sensing, and modeling. This dataset consists of an orthomosaic and digital surface model (DSM) derived from drone surveys on 23 July 2022 at Derksen and Schmutz Basins on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. 6,158 digital images were acquired from a DJI Phantom 4 Real-Time Kinematic (DJI P4RTK) quadcopter with a DJI D-RTK 2 Mobile Base Station. The mapped area was around 580 hectares (ha). The drone system was flown at 100 meters (m) above ground level (agl) and flight speeds varied from 7–8 meters/second (m/s). The orientation of the camera was set to 90 degrees (i.e. looking straight down). The along-track overlap and across-track overlap of the mission were set at 80% and 70%, respectively. All images were processed in the software Pix4D Mapper (v. 4.8.4) using the standard 3D Maps workflow and the accurate geolocation and orientation calibration method to produce the orthophoto mosaic and digital surface model at spatial resolutions of 5 and 10 centimeters (cm), respectively. Elevation information derived over waterbodies is noisy and does not represent the surface elevation of the feature. A Leica Viva differential global positioning system (GPS) provided ground control for the mission and the data were post-processed to WGS84 UTM Zone 5 North in Ellipsoid Heights (meters).more » « less
