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1. Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Magnitude at Different Landfalling Stages: An Emphasis on After-Landfall Rain

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0055.1  

   Guzman, Oscar ; Jiang, Haiyan ( July 2023 , Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology)

   Estimating the magnitude of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall at different landfalling stages is an important aspect of the TC forecast that directly affects the level of response from emergency managers. In this study, a climatology of the TC rainfall magnitude as a function of the location of the TC centers within distance intervals from the coast and the percentage of the raining area over the land is presented on a global scale. A total of 1834 TCs in the period from 2000 until 2019 are analyzed using satellite information to characterize the precipitation magnitude, volumetric rain, rainfall area, and axial-symmetric properties within the proposed landfalling categories, with an emphasis on the postlandfall stages. We found that TCs experience rainfall maxima in regions adjacent to the coast when more than 50% of their rainfall area is over the water. TC rainfall is also analyzed over the entire TC extent and the portion over land. When the total extent is considered, rainfall intensity, volumetric rain, and rainfall area increase with wind speed intensity. However, once it is quantified over the land only, we found that rainfall intensity exhibits a nearly perfect inversely proportional relation with the increase in TC rainfall area. In addition, when a TC with life maximum intensity of a major hurricane makes landfall as a tropical depression or tropical storm, it usually produces the largest spatial extent and the highest volumetric rain.

   This study aims to describe the cycle of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation magnitude through a new approach that defines the landfall categories as a function of the percentage of the TC precipitating area over the land and ocean, along with the location of the TC centers within distance intervals from the coast. Our central hypothesis is that TC rainfall should exhibit distinct features in the long-term satellite time series for each of the proposed stages. We particularly focused on the overland events due to their effects on human activities, finding that the TCs that at some point of their life cycle reached major hurricane strength and made landfall as a tropical storm or tropical depression produced the highest volumetric rain over the land surface. This research also presents key observational evidence of the relationship between the rain rate, raining area, and volumetric rain for landfalling TCs.

    

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2. Downscaling of Rainfall Extremes From Satellite Observations

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022950  

   Zorzetto, Enrico ; Marani, Marco ( January 2019 , Water Resources Research)

   The estimation of the frequency of intense rainfall events is a crucial step for quantifying their impact on human societies and on the environment. This process is hindered by large gaps in ground observational networks at the global scale, such that extensive areas remain ungauged. The increasing availability of satellite‐based rainfall estimates, while providing data with unprecedented resolution and global coverage, also introduces new challenges: the scale disparity between gridded and rain‐gauge precipitation products on the one hand, and the short length of the available satellite records on the other. Here we propose a statistical framework for the estimation of rainfall extremes that is specifically designed to simultaneously address these two key issues, providing a new way of estimating extreme rainfall magnitudes from space. A downscaling procedure is here introduced to recover the spatial correlation and the probability density function of daily rainfall at the point (gauge) scale from coarse‐scale satellite estimates. The results are then combined with a recent statistical model of extremes (the Metastatistical Extreme Value distribution), which optimizes the use of the information obtained from relatively short satellite observational time series. The methodology is tested using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis over the Little Washita River, Oklahoma. We find that our approach satisfactorily reproduces downscaled daily rainfall probability density functions and can significantly improve the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis‐based estimation of quantiles with return times larger than the length of the available data set (19 years here), which are especially important for several water‐related applications.

    

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3. Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095774  

   Klotzbach, Philip J. ; Wood, Kimberly M. ; Schreck, III, Carl J. ; Bowen, Steven G. ; Patricola, Christina M. ; Bell, Michael M. ( March 2022 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day⁻¹, and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

    

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4. Seven Decades of Coastal Change at Barter Island, Alaska: Exploring the Importance of Waves and Temperature on Erosion of Coastal Permafrost Bluffs

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13214420  

   Gibbs, Ann ; Erikson, Li ; Jones, Benjamin ; Richmond, Bruce ; Engelstad, Anita ( November 2021 , Remote Sensing)

   null (Ed.)

   Observational data of coastal change over much of the Arctic are limited largely due to its immensity, remoteness, harsh environment, and restricted periods of sunlight and ice-free conditions. Barter Island, Alaska, is one of the few locations where an extensive, observational dataset exists, which enables a detailed assessment of the trends and patterns of coastal change over decadal to annual time scales. Coastal bluff and shoreline positions were delineated from maps, aerial photographs, and satellite imagery acquired between 1947 and 2020, and at a nearly annual rate since 2004. Rates and patterns of shoreline and bluff change varied widely over the observational period. Shorelines showed a consistent trend of southerly erosion and westerly extension of the western termini of Barter Island and Bernard Spit, which has accelerated since at least 2000. The 3.2 km long stretch of ocean-exposed coastal permafrost bluffs retreated on average 114 m and at a maximum of 163 m at an average long-term rate (70 year) of 1.6 ± 0.1 m/yr. The long-term retreat rate was punctuated by individual years with retreat rates up to four times higher (6.6 ± 1.9 m/yr; 2012–2013) and both long-term (multidecadal) and short-term (annual to semiannual) rates showed a steady increase in retreat rates through time, with consistently high rates since 2015. A best-fit polynomial trend indicated acceleration in retreat rates that was independent of the large spatial and temporal variations observed on an annual basis. Rates and patterns of bluff retreat were correlated to incident wave energy and air and water temperatures. Wave energy was found to be the dominant driver of bluff retreat, followed by sea surface temperatures and warming air temperatures that are considered proxies for evaluating thermo-erosion and denudation. Normalized anomalies of cumulative wave energy, duration of open water, and air and sea temperature showed at least three distinct phases since 1979: a negative phase prior to 1987, a mixed phase between 1987 and the early to late 2000s, followed by a positive phase extending to 2020. The duration of the open-water season has tripled since 1979, increasing from approximately 40 to 140 days. Acceleration in retreat rates at Barter Island may be related to increases in both thermodenudation, associated with increasing air temperature, and the number of niche-forming and block-collapsing episodes associated with higher air and water temperature, more frequent storms, and longer ice-free conditions in the Beaufort Sea. 

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5. Heavier Inner-core Rainfall of Major Hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin than Other Global Basins

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0668.1  

   Guzman, Oscar ; Jiang, Haiyan ( April 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   Based on 19 years of precipitation data collected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a comparison of the rainfall produced by tropical cyclones (TCs) in different global basins is presented. A total of 1789 TCs were examined in the period from 1998 to 2016 by taking advantage of more than 47,737 observations of TRMM/GPM 3B42 multi-satellite derived rainfall amounts. The axisymmetric component of the TC rainfall is analyzed in all TC-prone basins. The resulting radial profiles show that major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin exhibit significantly heavier inner-core rainfall rates than those in any other basins. To explain the possible causes of this difference, rainfall distributions for major hurricanes are stratified according to different TC intensity and environmental variables. Based on the examination of these parameters, we found that the stronger rainfall rates in the Atlantic major hurricanes are associated with higher values of convective available potential energy, drier relative humidity in the low to middle troposphere, colder air temperature at 250hPa, and stronger vertical wind shear than other basins. These results have important implications in the refining of our understanding of the mechanisms of TC rainfall.

    

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