Abstract Background We previously developed and validated a predictive model to help clinicians identify hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may be ready for discharge given their low risk of adverse events. Whether this algorithm can prompt more timely discharge for stable patients in practice is unknown. Objectives The aim of the study is to estimate the effect of displaying risk scores on length of stay (LOS). Methods We integrated model output into the electronic health record (EHR) at four hospitals in one health system by displaying a green/orange/red score indicating low/moderate/high-risk in a patient list column and a larger COVID-19 summary report visible for each patient. Display of the score was pseudo-randomized 1:1 into intervention and control arms using a patient identifier passed to the model execution code. Intervention effect was assessed by comparing LOS between intervention and control groups. Adverse safety outcomes of death, hospice, and re-presentation were tested separately and as a composite indicator. We tracked adoption and sustained use through daily counts of score displays. Results Enrolling 1,010 patients from May 15, 2020 to December 7, 2020, the trial found no detectable difference in LOS. The intervention had no impact on safety indicators of death, hospice or re-presentation after discharge. The scores were displayed consistently throughout the study period but the study lacks a causally linked process measure of provider actions based on the score. Secondary analysis revealed complex dynamics in LOS temporally, by primary symptom, and hospital location. Conclusion An AI-based COVID-19 risk score displayed passively to clinicians during routine care of hospitalized adults with COVID-19 was safe but had no detectable impact on LOS. Health technology challenges such as insufficient adoption, nonuniform use, and provider trust compounded with temporal factors of the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed to the null result. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04570488.
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Population-scale identification of differential adverse events before and during a pandemic
Adverse patient safety events, unintended injuries resulting from medical therapy, were associated with 110,000 deaths in the United States in 2019. A nationwide pandemic (such as COVID-19) further challenges the ability of healthcare systems to ensure safe medication use and the pandemic’s effects on safety events remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate drug safety events across demographic groups before and during a pandemic using a dataset of 1,425,371 reports involving 2,821 drugs and 7,761 adverse events. Among 64 adverse events identified by our analyses, we find 54 increased in frequency during the pandemic, despite a 4.4% decrease in the total number of reports. Out of 53 adverse events with a pre-pandemic gender gap, 33 have seen their gap increase with the pandemic onset. We find that the number of adverse events with an increased reporting ratio is higher in adults (by 16.8%) than in older patients. Our findings have implications for safe medication use and preventable healthcare inequality in public health emergencies.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10308137
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Computational Science
- Volume:
- 1
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2662-8457
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 666-677
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract STUDY QUESTION To what extent is preconception maternal or paternal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination associated with miscarriage incidence?
SUMMARY ANSWER COVID-19 vaccination in either partner at any time before conception is not associated with an increased rate of miscarriage.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Several observational studies have evaluated the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and found no association with miscarriage, though no study prospectively evaluated the risk of early miscarriage (gestational weeks [GW] <8) in relation to COVID-19 vaccination. Moreover, no study has evaluated the role of preconception vaccination in both male and female partners.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION An Internet-based, prospective preconception cohort study of couples residing in the USA and Canada. We analyzed data from 1815 female participants who conceived during December 2020–November 2022, including 1570 couples with data on male partner vaccination.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Eligible female participants were aged 21–45 years and were trying to conceive without use of fertility treatment at enrollment. Female participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks until pregnancy, and during early and late pregnancy; they could also invite their male partners to complete a baseline questionnaire. We collected data on COVID-19 vaccination (brand and date of doses), history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (yes/no and date of positive test), potential confounders (demographic, reproductive, and lifestyle characteristics), and pregnancy status on all questionnaires. Vaccination status was categorized as never (0 doses before conception), ever (≥1 dose before conception), having a full primary sequence before conception, and completing the full primary sequence ≤3 months before conception. These categories were not mutually exclusive. Participants were followed up from their first positive pregnancy test until miscarriage or a censoring event (induced abortion, ectopic pregnancy, loss to follow-up, 20 weeks’ gestation), whichever occurred first. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for miscarriage and corresponding 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards models with GW as the time scale. We used propensity score fine stratification weights to adjust for confounding.
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Among 1815 eligible female participants, 75% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the time of conception. Almost one-quarter of pregnancies resulted in miscarriage, and 75% of miscarriages occurred <8 weeks’ gestation. The propensity score-weighted IRR comparing female participants who received at least one dose any time before conception versus those who had not been vaccinated was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.14). COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with increased risk of either early miscarriage (GW: <8) or late miscarriage (GW: 8–19). There was no indication of an increased risk of miscarriage associated with male partner vaccination (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.56, 1.44).
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The present study relied on self-reported vaccination status and infection history. Thus, there may be some non-differential misclassification of exposure status. While misclassification of miscarriage is also possible, the preconception cohort design and high prevalence of home pregnancy testing in this cohort reduced the potential for under-ascertainment of miscarriage. As in all observational studies, residual or unmeasured confounding is possible.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This is the first study to evaluate prospectively the relation between preconception COVID-19 vaccination in both partners and miscarriage, with more complete ascertainment of early miscarriages than earlier studies of vaccination. The findings are informative for individuals planning a pregnancy and their healthcare providers.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute of Health [R01-HD086742 (PI: L.A.W.); R01-HD105863S1 (PI: L.A.W. and M.L.E.)], the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R03-AI154544; PI: A.K.R.), and the National Science Foundation (NSF-1914792; PI: L.A.W.). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. L.A.W. is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc. She also receives in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics (Clearblue home pregnancy tests) and Kindara.com (fertility apps). M.L.E. received consulting fees from Ro, Hannah, Dadi, VSeat, and Underdog, holds stock in Ro, Hannah, Dadi, and Underdog, is a past president of SSMR, and is a board member of SMRU. K.F.H. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from UCB and Takeda, unrelated to this study. S.H.-D. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from Takeda, unrelated to this study, and a methods consultant for UCB and Roche for unrelated drugs. The authors report no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
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Survival of pediatric AML remains poor despite maximized myelosuppressive therapy. The pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PJP)-treating medication atovaquone (AQ) suppresses oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) and reduces AML burden in patient-derived xenograft (PDX) mouse models, making it an ideal concomitant AML therapy. Poor palatability and limited product formulations have historically limited routine use of AQ in pediatric AML patients. Patients with de novo AML were enrolled at two hospitals. Daily AQ at established PJP dosing was combined with standard AML therapy, based on the Medical Research Council backbone. AQ compliance, adverse events (AEs), ease of administration score (scale: 1 (very difficult)-5 (very easy)) and blood/marrow pharmacokinetics (PK) were collected during Induction 1. Correlative studies assessed AQ-induced apoptosis and effects on OXPHOS. PDX models were treated with AQ. A total of 26 patients enrolled (ages 7.2 months–19.7 years, median 12 years); 24 were evaluable. A total of 14 (58%) and 19 (79%) evaluable patients achieved plasma concentrations above the known anti-leukemia concentration (>10 µM) by day 11 and at the end of Induction, respectively. Seven (29%) patients achieved adequate concentrations for PJP prophylaxis (>40 µM). Mean ease of administration score was 3.8. Correlative studies with AQ in patient samples demonstrated robust apoptosis, OXPHOS suppression, and prolonged survival in PDX models. Combining AQ with chemotherapy for AML appears feasible and safe in pediatric patients during Induction 1 and shows single-agent anti-leukemic effects in PDX models. AQ appears to be an ideal concomitant AML therapeutic but may require intra-patient dose adjustment to achieve concentrations sufficient for PJP prophylaxis.
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Off-label drug use is quite common in clinical practice and inevitable to some extent. Such uses might deliver effective treatment and suggest clinical innovation sometimes, however, they have the unknown risk to cause serious outcomes due to lacking scientific support. As gaining information about off-label drug use could present a clue to the stakeholders such as healthcare professionals and medication manufacturers to further the investigation on drug efficacy and safety, it raises the need to develop a systematic way to detect off-label drug uses. Considering the increasing discussions in online health communities (OHCs) among the health consumers, we proposed to harness the large volume of timely information in OHCs to develop an automated method for detecting off-label drug uses from health consumer generated data. From the text corpus, we extracted medical entities (diseases, drugs, and adverse drug reactions) with lexicon-based approaches and measured their interactions with word embedding models, based on which, we constructed a heterogeneous healthcare network. We defined several meta-path-based indicators to describe the drug-disease associations in the heterogeneous network and used them as features to train a binary classifier built on Random Forest algorithm, to recognize the known drug-disease associations. The classification model obtained better results when incorporating word embedding features and achieved the best performance when using both association rule mining features and word embedding features, with F1-score reaching 0.939, based on which, we identified 2,125 possible off-label drug uses and checked their potential by searching evidence in PubMed and FAERS.more » « less
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Off-label drug use refers to using marketed drugs for indications that are not listed in their FDA labeling information. Such uses are very common and sometimes inevitable in clinical practice. To some extent, off-label drug uses provide a pathway for clinical innovation, however, they could cause serious adverse effects due to lacking scientific research and tests. Since identifying the off-label uses can provide a clue to the stakeholders including healthcare providers, patients, and medication manufacturers to further the investigation on drug efficacy and safety, it raises the demand for a systematic way to detect off-label uses. Given data contributed by health consumers in online health communities (OHCs), we developed an automated approach to detect off-label drug uses based on heterogeneous network mining. We constructed a heterogeneous healthcare network with medical entities (e.g. disease, drug, adverse drug reaction) mined from the text corpus, which involved 50 diseases, 1,297 drugs, and 185 ADRs, and determined 13 meta paths between the drugs and diseases. We developed three metrics to represent the meta-path-based topological features. With the network features, we trained the binary classifiers built on Random Forest algorithm to recognize the known drug-disease associations. The best classification model that used lift to measure path weights obtained F1-score of 0.87, based on which, we identified 1,009 candidates of off-label drug uses and examined their potential by searching evidence from PubMed and FAERS.more » « less
