Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic storms. However, it is clear that some ICMEs, which may also cause enhanced geomagnetic activity, cannot be traced back to an observed CME, or, if the CME is identified, its origin may be elusive or ambiguous in coronal images. Such CMEs have been termed “stealth CMEs”. In this review, we focus on these “problem” geomagnetic storms in the sense that the solar/CME precursors are enigmatic and stealthy. We start by reviewing evidence for stealth CMEs discussed in past studies. We then identify several moderate to strong geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst
Stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial magnetic configuration and eruption dynamics is particularly problematic. In this article, we address this issue by undertaking the first attempt at predicting the magnetic fields of a stealth CME that erupted in 2020 June from the Earth-facing Sun. We estimate its source region with the aid of off-limb observations from a secondary viewpoint and photospheric magnetic field extrapolations. We then employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information modeling suite to evaluate its early evolution and forward model its magnetic fields up to Parker Solar Probe, which detected the CME in situ at a heliocentric distance of 0.5 au. We compare our hindcast prediction with in situ measurements and a set of flux-rope reconstructions, obtaining encouraging agreement on arrival time, spacecraft-crossing location, and magnetic field profiles. This work represents a first step toward reliable understanding and forecasting of the magnetic configuration of stealth CMEs and slow streamer-blowout events.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1851945
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10308340
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 920
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 65
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 65"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CMEs’ geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model.Aims. We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions.Methods. We modeled four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We varied the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employed the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model and varied its source-surface height in the range 1.5–3.0R ⊙with 0.1R ⊙increments.Results. We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun’s corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height.Conclusions. The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use. -
null (Ed.)Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions of magnetised plasma from the Sun that are often accompanied by solar radio bursts produced by accelerated electrons. Aims. A powerful source for accelerating electron beams are CME-driven shocks, however, there are other mechanisms capable of accelerating electrons during a CME eruption. So far, studies have relied on the traditional classification of solar radio bursts into five groups (Type I–V) based mainly on their shapes and characteristics in dynamic spectra. Here, we aim to determine the origin of moving radio bursts associated with a CME that do not fit into the present classification of the solar radio emission. Methods. By using radio imaging from the Nançay Radioheliograph, combined with observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, we investigate the moving radio bursts accompanying two subsequent CMEs on 22 May 2013. We use three-dimensional reconstructions of the two associated CME eruptions to show the possible origin of the observed radio emission. Results. We identified three moving radio bursts at unusually high altitudes in the corona that are located at the northern CME flank and move outwards synchronously with the CME. The radio bursts correspond to fine-structured emission in dynamic spectra with durations of ∼1 s, and they may show forward or reverse frequency drifts. Since the CME expands closely following an earlier CME, a low coronal CME–CME interaction is likely responsible for the observed radio emission. Conclusions. For the first time, we report the existence of new types of short duration bursts, which are signatures of electron beams accelerated at the CME flank. Two subsequent CMEs originating from the same region and propagating in similar directions provide a complex configuration of the ambient magnetic field and favourable conditions for the creation of collapsing magnetic traps. These traps are formed if a CME-driven wave, such as a shock wave, is likely to intersect surrounding magnetic field lines twice. Electrons will thus be further accelerated at the mirror points created at these intersections and eventually escape to produce bursts of plasma emission with forward and reverse drifts.more » « less
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Context. In the scope of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to be able to more reliably predict the arrival time, speed, and magnetic field configuration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From the time a CME is launched, the dominant factor influencing all of the above is the interaction of the interplanetary CME (ICME) with the ambient plasma and interplanetary magnetic field.Aims. Due to a generally anisotropic heliosphere, differently oriented ICMEs may interact differently with the ambient plasma and interplanetary magnetic field, even when the initial eruption conditions are similar. For this, we examined the possible link between the orientation of an ICME and its propagation in the heliosphere (up to 1 AU).Methods. We investigated 31 CME-ICME associations in the period from 1997 to 2018. The CME orientation in the near-Sun environment was determined using an ellipse-fitting technique applied to single-spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and magnetic field data. The shock orientation and nonradial flows in the sheath region for differently oriented ICMEs were investigated. In addition, we calculated the ICME transit time to Earth and drag parameter to probe the overall drag force for differently oriented ICMEs. The drag parameter was calculated using the reverse modeling procedure with the drag-based model.Results. We found a significant difference in nonradial flows for differently oriented ICMEs, whereas a significant difference in drag for differently oriented ICMEs was not found. -
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ABSTRACT Whilst intense solar flares are almost always accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), reports on stellar CMEs are rare, despite the frequent detection of stellar ‘super flares’. The torus instability of magnetic flux ropes is believed to be one of the main driving mechanisms of solar CMEs. Suppression of the torus instability, due to a confining background coronal magnetic field that decreases sufficiently slowly with height, may contribute to the lack of stellar CME detection. Here, we use the solar magnetic field as a template to estimate the vertical extent of this ‘torus-stable zone’ (TSZ) above a stellar active region. For an idealized potential field model comprising the fields of a local bipole (mimicking a pair of starspots) and a global dipole, we show that the upper bound of the TSZ increases with the bipole size, the dipole strength, and the source surface radius where the coronal field becomes radial. The boundaries of the TSZ depend on the interplay between the spots’ and the dipole’s magnetic fields, which provide the local- and global-scale confinement, respectively. They range from about half the bipole size to a significant fraction of the stellar radius. For smaller spots and an intermediate dipole field, a secondary TSZ arises at a higher altitude, which may increase the likelihood of ‘failed eruptions’. Our results suggest that the low apparent CME occurrence rate on cool stars is, at least partially, due to the presence of extended TSZs.
