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1. Employing the Coupled EUHFORIA‐OpenGGCM Model to Predict CME Geoeffectiveness

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003715  

   Maharana, Anwesha; Cramer, W Douglas; Samara, Evangelia; Scolini, Camilla; Raeder, Joachim; Poedts, Stefaan (May 2024, Space Weather)

   Abstract EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics‐based data‐driven solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geo‐effectiveness of the solar transients in terms of geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the auroral indices, that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geo‐effective CME events driven with the spheromak flux‐rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1–2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1–2 hr before the actual impact. 

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2. Predicting the Magnetic Fields of a Stealth CME Detected by Parker Solar Probe at 0.5 au

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac25f4  

   Palmerio, Erika; Kay, Christina; Al-Haddad, Nada; Lynch, Benjamin J.; Yu, Wenyuan; Stevens, Michael L.; Pal, Sanchita; Lee, Christina O. (October 2021, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial magnetic configuration and eruption dynamics is particularly problematic. In this article, we address this issue by undertaking the first attempt at predicting the magnetic fields of a stealth CME that erupted in 2020 June from the Earth-facing Sun. We estimate its source region with the aid of off-limb observations from a secondary viewpoint and photospheric magnetic field extrapolations. We then employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information modeling suite to evaluate its early evolution and forward model its magnetic fields up to Parker Solar Probe, which detected the CME in situ at a heliocentric distance of 0.5 au. We compare our hindcast prediction with in situ measurements and a set of flux-rope reconstructions, obtaining encouraging agreement on arrival time, spacecraft-crossing location, and magnetic field profiles. This work represents a first step toward reliable understanding and forecasting of the magnetic configuration of stealth CMEs and slow streamer-blowout events. 

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3. Understanding the Origins of Problem Geomagnetic Storms Associated with “Stealth” Coronal Mass Ejections

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-021-00857-0  

   Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mulligan, Tamitha; Kilpua, Emilia K. J.; Lynch, Benjamin J.; Mierla, Marilena; O’Kane, Jennifer; Pagano, Paolo; Palmerio, Erika; Pomoell, Jens; Richardson, Ian G.; et al (November 2021, Space Science Reviews)

   Abstract Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic storms. However, it is clear that some ICMEs, which may also cause enhanced geomagnetic activity, cannot be traced back to an observed CME, or, if the CME is identified, its origin may be elusive or ambiguous in coronal images. Such CMEs have been termed “stealth CMEs”. In this review, we focus on these “problem” geomagnetic storms in the sense that the solar/CME precursors are enigmatic and stealthy. We start by reviewing evidence for stealth CMEs discussed in past studies. We then identify several moderate to strong geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst$$< -50$$ $<-50$ nT) in solar cycle 24 for which the related solar sources and/or CMEs are unclear and apparently stealthy. We discuss the solar and in situ circumstances of these events and identify several scenarios that may account for their elusive solar signatures. These range from observational limitations (e.g., a coronagraph near Earth may not detect an incoming CME if it is diffuse and not wide enough) to the possibility that there is a class of mass ejections from the Sun that have only weak or hard-to-observe coronal signatures. In particular, some of these sources are only clearly revealed by considering the evolution of coronal structures over longer time intervals than is usually considered. We also review a variety of numerical modelling approaches that attempt to advance our understanding of the origins and consequences of stealthy solar eruptions with geoeffective potential. Specifically, we discuss magnetofrictional modelling of the energisation of stealth CME source regions and magnetohydrodynamic modelling of the physical processes that generate stealth CME or CME-like eruptions, typically from higher altitudes in the solar corona than CMEs from active regions or extended filament channels. 

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4. Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions

   https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202245445  

   Ledvina, Vincent E.; Palmerio, Erika; Kay, Christina; Al-Haddad, Nada; Riley, Pete (May 2023, Astronomy & Astrophysics)

   Context.Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CMEs’ geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model. Aims.We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions. Methods.We modeled four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We varied the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employed the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model and varied its source-surface height in the range 1.5–3.0R_⊙with 0.1R_⊙increments. Results.We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun’s corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height. Conclusions.The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use. 

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5. Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM)

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165  

   Chen, Hongfan; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Huang, Zhenguang; van_der_Holst, Bart; Manchester, IV, Ward; Jivani, Aniket; Zou, Shasha; Chen, Yang; Huan, Xun; Toth, Gabor (January 2025, Space Weather)

   Abstract Forecasting the arrival time of Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics‐based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model parameters and reduce the uncertainty in subsequent model predictions. In this study, we show that CME simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white‐light (WL) observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. The L1 observations are used to constrain the model of the solar wind background into which the CME is launched. Average speed of CME shock front over propagation angles are extracted from both synthetic WL images from the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) and the WL observations. We observe a strong rank correlation between the average WL speed and CME arrival time, with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients larger than 0.90 for three events occurring during different phases of the solar cycle. This enables us to develop a Bayesian framework to filter ensemble simulations using WL observations, which is found to reduce the mean absolute error of CME arrival time prediction from about 13.4 to 5.1 hr. The results show the potential of assimilating readily available L1 and WL observations within hours of the CME eruption to construct optimal ensembles of Sun‐to‐Earth CME simulations. 

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