Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire. This shift in composition has the potential to generate biophysical cooling via increased land surface albedo. Here we use Landsat-derived maps of continuous tree canopy cover and deciduous fractional composition to assess albedo change over recent decades. We find, on average, a small net decrease in deciduous fraction from 2000 to 2015 across boreal North America and from 1992 to 2015 across Canada, despite extensive fire disturbance that locally increased deciduous vegetation. We further find near-neutral net biophysical change in radiative forcing associated with albedo when aggregated across the domain. Thus, while there have been widespread changes in forest composition over the past several decades, the net changes in composition and associated post-fire radiative forcing have not induced systematic negative feedbacks to climate warming over the spatial and temporal scope of our study.
- Award ID(s):
- 1636476
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10313767
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Volume:
- 372
- Issue:
- 6539
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
Abstract Fire frequency is increasing with climate warming in the boreal regions of interior Alaska, with short fire return intervals (< 50 years) becoming more common. Recent studies suggest these “reburns” will reduce the insulating surface organic layer (SOL) and seedbanks, inhibiting black spruce regeneration and increasing deciduous cover. These changes are projected to amplify soil warming, increasing mineral soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition rates, and impair re-establishment of understorey vegetation and the SOL. We examined how reburns changed soil temperature, heterotrophic soil respiration (RH), and understorey gross primary production (GPP), and related these to shifts in vegetation composition and SOL depths. Two distinct burn complexes previously covered by spruce were measured; both included areas burned 1x, 2x, and 3x over 60 years and mature (≈ 90 year old) spruce forests underlain by permafrost. A 2.7 °C increase in annual near-surface soil temperatures from 1x to 3x burns was correlated with a decrease in SOL depths and a 1.9 Mg C ha−1increase in annual RH efflux. However, near-surface soil warming accounted for ≤ 23% of higher RH efflux; increases in deciduous overstorey vegetation and root biomass with reburning better correlated with RH than soil temperature. Reburning also warmed deeper soils and reduced the biomass and GPP of understory plants, lessening their potential to offset elevated RH and contribute to SOL development. This suggests that reburning led to losses of mineral SOC previously stored in permafrost due to warming soils and changes in vegetation composition, illustrating how burn frequency creates pathways for accelerated regional C loss.
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Abstract Climate change and natural disturbances are catalysing forest transitions to different vegetation types, but whether these new communities are resilient alternate states that will persist for decades to centuries is not known. Here, we test how changing climate, disturbance and biotic interactions shape the long‐term fate of a deciduous broadleaf forest type that replaces black spruce after severe wildfires in interior Alaska, USA.
We simulated postfire deciduous forest that replaced black spruce after severe fires in 2004 for tens to hundreds of years under different climate scenarios (contemporary, mid 21st century, late 21st century), fire return intervals (11–250 years), distances to seed source (50–1,000 m) and browsing intensities (background, moderate, chronic). We identified combinations of conditions where deciduous forest remained the dominant vegetation type and combinations where it returned to black spruce forest, transitioned to mixed forest (where deciduous species and black spruce co‐dominate) or converted to nonforest.
Deciduous forest persisted in 86% of simulations and was most resilient if fire return intervals were short (≤50 years). When transitions to another vegetation type occurred, mixed forest was most common, particularly when fire return intervals were long (>50 years) and the nearest seed source was 500 m or farther. Moderate and chronic browsing also reduced deciduous sapling growth and survival, helping black spruce compete if fire return intervals were long and seed source was distant. Dry soils occasionally caused conversion to nonforest following short‐interval fire when simulations were forced with a late 21st‐century climate scenario that projects warming and increased vapor pressure deficit. Return to black spruce forest almost never occurred.
Synthesis . Conversion from black spruce to deciduous forest is already underway at regional scales in interior Alaska, and similar transitions have been widely observed throughout the North American boreal biome. We show that this boreal deciduous forest type is likely a resilient alternate state that will persist through the 21st century, which is important, because future vegetation outcomes will shape biophysical feedbacks to regional climate and influence subsequent disturbance regimes. -
Conifer forests historically have been resilient to wildfires in part due to thick organic soil layers that regulate combustion and post-fire moisture and vegetation change. However, recent shifts in fire activity in western North America may be overwhelming these resilience mechanisms with potential impacts for energy and carbon exchange. Here, we quantify the long-term recovery of the organic soil layer and its carbon pools across 511 forested plots. Our plots span ~ 140,000 km2 across two ecozones of the Northwest Territories, Canada, and allowed us to investigate the impacts of time-after-fire, site moisture class, and dominant canopy type on soil organic layer thickness and associated carbon stocks. Despite thinner soil organic layers in xeric plots immediately after fire, these drier stands supported faster post-fire recovery of the soil organic layer than in mesic plots. Unlike xeric or mesic stands, post-fire soil carbon accumulation rates in hydric plots were negligible despite wetter forested plots having greater soil organic carbon stocks immediately post-fire compared to other stands. While permafrost and high-water tables inhibit combustion and maintain thick organic soils immediately after fire, our results suggest that these wet stands are not recovering their pre-fire carbon stocks on a century timescale. We show that canopy conversion from black spruce to jack pine or deciduous dominance could reduce organic soil carbon stocks by 60–80% depending on stand age. Our two main findings—decreasing organic soil carbon storage with increasing deciduous cover and the lack of post-fire SOL recovery in hydric sites—have implications for the turnover time of carbon stocks in the western boreal forest region and also will impact energy fluxes by controlling albedo and surface soil moisture.more » « less
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