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1. The efficacy of tropical and extratropical predictors for long‐lead El Niño‐Southern Oscillation prediction: A study using a machine learning algorithm

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8241  

   Song, Wan‐Jiao; Yu, Jin‐Yi; Lian, Tao (November 2023, International Journal of Climatology)

   Abstract This study illustrates the considerable improvement in accuracy achievable for long‐lead forecasts (18 months) of the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) through the utilization of a long short‐term memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm. The research assesses the predictive potential of eight predictors from both tropical and extratropical regions constructed based on sea surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface height and zonal and meridional wind anomalies. In comparison to linear regression model forecasts, the LSTM model outperforms them for both the tropical and extratropical predictor sets. Among all the predictors, the western North Pacific (WNP) index demonstrates the highest prediction skill in ONI forecasts, followed by the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) index and then the sea surface height index. While other predictors help the LSTM model to forecast either the phase variation of the amplitude variation of the observed ONI, the extratropical WNP predictor enables the LSTM model to forecast both variations. This superiority can be attributed to the involvement of SST anomalies in the WNP region in both tropical and extratropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, allowing for the utilization of predictive potential from both components of ENSO dynamics. The study also concludes that the extratropical ENSO dynamics provide a robust source of predictability for long‐lead ENSO forecasts, which can be effectively harnessed using the LSTM model. 

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2. Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00805-z  

   Gong, Hainan; Ma, Kangjie; Liu, Bo; Cohen, Judah; Wang, Lin (December 2024, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been observed to undergo distinct decadal structural fluctuations that significantly influence regional weather and climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms behind the AO’s spatial nonstationarity is critical for improving climate predictions related to the AO. Wepresent evidence that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a pivotal role in modulating AO’s Pacific center in recent decades. The poleward amplified cooling associated with negative AMO enhances the north-south temperature gradient and results the strengthened westerly winds and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) responses, which reflects more planetary waves from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. This enhances the atmospheric coupling between these regions and leads to amore pronounced Pacific center within theAOpattern.Numerical simulations fromECHAM5 and 35 CMIP6 models further corroborate the essential role of the AMO. These findings advance our understanding of the mechanisms driving the variability of the AO pattern. 

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3. The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00173-9  

   Martin, Zane; Son, Seok-Woo; Butler, Amy; Hendon, Harry; Kim, Hyemi; Sobel, Adam; Yoden, Shigeo; Zhang, Chidong (July 2021, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment)
4. Long‐term seedling and small sapling census data from the B arro C olorado I sland 50 ha F orest D ynamics P lot, P anama

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4140  

   Comita, Liza S.; Aguilar, Salomón; Hubbell, Stephen P.; Pérez, Rolando (July 2023, Ecology)

   Abstract Tropical forests are well known for their high woody plant diversity. Processes occurring at early life stages are thought to play a critical role in maintaining this high diversity and shaping the composition of tropical tree communities. To evaluate hypothesized mechanisms promoting tropical tree species coexistence and influencing composition, we initiated a census of woody seedlings and small saplings in the permanent 50 ha Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Situated in old‐growth, lowland tropical moist forest, the BCI FDP was originally established in 1980 to monitor trees and shrubs ≥1 cm diameter at 1.3 m above ground (dbh) at ca. 5‐year intervals. However, critical data on the dynamics occurring at earlier life stages were initially lacking. Therefore, in 2001 we established a 1‐m²seedling plot in the center of every 5 × 5 m section of the BCI FDP. All freestanding woody individuals ≥20 cm tall and <1 cm dbh (hereafter referred to as seedlings) were tagged, mapped, measured, and identified to species in 19,313 1‐m²seedling plots. Because seedling dynamics are rapid, we censused these seedling plots every 1–2 years. Here, we present data from the 14 censuses of these seedling plots conducted between the initial census in 2001 to the most recent census, in 2018. This data set includes nearly 1 M observations of ~185,000 individuals of >400 tree, shrub, and liana species. These data will permit spatially‐explicit analyses of seedling distributions, recruitment, growth, and survival for hundreds of woody plant species. In addition, the data presented here can be linked to openly‐available, long‐term data on the dynamics of trees and shrubs ≥1 cm dbh in the BCI FDP, as well as existing data sets from the site on climate, canopy structure, phylogenetic relatedness, functional traits, soil nutrients, and topography. This data set can be freely used for non‐commercial purposes; we request that users of these data cite this data paper in all publications resulting from the use of this data set. 

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5. The Movement Ecology of Mutualism ( CSEE / ESA 2022, OOS17 )

   https://doi.org/10.1002/bes2.2063  

   Moore, Christopher M.; Shaw, Allison K.; Bruninga‐Socolar, Bethanne; Caves, Eleanor M.; Karnish, Alex T.; Kiesewetter, Kasey N.; Nelson, Annika S.; Pringle, Elizabeth G. (April 2023, The Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America)