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Abstract Crop phenology regulates seasonal carbon and water fluxes between croplands and the atmosphere and provides essential information for monitoring and predicting crop growth dynamics and productivity. However, under rapid climate change and more frequent extreme events, future changes in crop phenological shifts have not been well investigated and fully considered in earth system modeling and regional climate assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach combining remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) with climate and survey data to predict future crop phenological shifts across the US corn and soybean systems. Specifically, our projected findings demonstrate distinct acceleration patterns—under the RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 scenarios, corn planting, silking, maturity, and harvesting stages would significantly advance by 0.94/1.66, 1.13/2.45, 0.89/2.68, and 1.04/2.16 days/decade during 2021–2099, respectively. Soybeans exhibit more muted responses with phenological stages showing relatively smaller negative trends (0.59, 1.08, 0.07, and 0.64 days/decade under the RCP 4.5 vs. 1.24, 1.53, 0.92, and 1.04 days/decade under the RCP 8.5). These spatially explicit projections illustrate how crop phenology would respond to future climate change, highlighting widespread and progressively earlier phenological timing. Based on these findings, we call for a specific effort to quantify the cascading effects of future phenology shifts on crop yield and carbon, water, and energy balances and, accordingly, craft targeted adaptive strategies.
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Near-Surface and High-Resolution Satellite Time Series for Detecting Crop Phenology
Detecting crop phenology with satellite time series is important to characterize agroecosystem energy-water-carbon fluxes, manage farming practices, and predict crop yields. Despite the advances in satellite-based crop phenological retrievals, interpreting those retrieval characteristics in the context of on-the-ground crop phenological events remains a long-standing hurdle. Over the recent years, the emergence of near-surface phenology cameras (e.g., PhenoCams), along with the satellite imagery of both high spatial and temporal resolutions (e.g., PlanetScope imagery), has largely facilitated direct comparisons of retrieved characteristics to visually observed crop stages for phenological interpretation and validation. The goal of this study is to systematically assess near-surface PhenoCams and high-resolution PlanetScope time series in reconciling sensor- and ground-based crop phenological characterizations. With two critical crop stages (i.e., crop emergence and maturity stages) as an example, we retrieved diverse phenological characteristics from both PhenoCam and PlanetScope imagery for a range of agricultural sites across the United States. The results showed that the curvature-based Greenup and Gu-based Upturn estimates showed good congruence with the visually observed crop emergence stage (RMSE about 1 week, bias about 0–9 days, and R square about 0.65–0.75). The threshold- and derivative-based End of greenness falling Season (i.e., EOS) estimates reconciled well with visual crop maturity observations (RMSE about 5–10 days, bias about 0–8 days, and R square about 0.6–0.75). The concordance among PlanetScope, PhenoCam, and visual phenology demonstrated the potential to interpret the fine-scale sensor-derived phenological characteristics in the context of physiologically well-characterized crop phenological events, which paved the way to develop formal protocols for bridging ground-satellite phenological characterization.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2048068
- PAR ID:
- 10322172
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Remote Sensing
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2072-4292
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14091957
