Visualizations of data provide a proven method for analysts to explore and make data-driven discoveries. However, current visualization tools provide only limited support for hypothesis-driven analyses, and often lack capabilities that would allow users to visually test the fit of their conceptual models against the data. This imbalance could bias users to overly rely on exploratory visual analysis as the principal mode of inquiry, which can be detrimental to discovery. To address this gap, we propose a new paradigm for ‘concept-driven’ visual analysis. In this style of analysis, analysts share their conceptual models and hypotheses with the system. The system then uses those inputs to drive the generation of visualizations, while providing plots and interactions to explore places where models and data disagree. We discuss key characteristics and design considerations for concept-driven visualizations, and report preliminary findings from a formative study.
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Causal Support: Modeling Causal Inferences with Visualizations
Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of informal visual “insights”. We formally evaluate the quality of causal inferences from visualizations by adopting causal support—a Bayesian cognition model that learns the probability of alternative causal explanations given some data—as a normative benchmark for causal inferences. We contribute two experiments assessing how well crowdworkers can detect (1) a treatment effect and (2) a confounding relationship. We find that chart users’ causal inferences tend to be insensitive to sample size such that they deviate from our normative benchmark. While interactively cross-filtering data in visualizations can improve sensitivity, on average users do not perform reliably better with common visualizations than they do with textual contingency tables. These experiments demonstrate the utility of causal support as an evaluation framework for inferences in VA and point to opportunities to make analysts’ mental models more explicit in VA software.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1930642
- PAR ID:
- 10326393
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2160-9306
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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