Abstract During late June 2021, a record-breaking heatwave impacted western North America, with all-time high temperatures reported across Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alberta. The heatwave was forced by a highly anomalous upper-level ridge, strong synoptic-scale subsidence, and downslope flow resulting in lower-tropospheric adiabatic warming. This study examines the impact of antecedent soil moisture on this extreme heat event. During the cool season of 2020/21, precipitation over the Pacific Northwest was above or near normal, followed by a dry spring that desiccated soils to 50%–75% of normal moisture content by early June. Low surface soil moisture affects the surface energy balance by altering the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in warmer temperatures. Using numerical model simulations of the heatwave, this study demonstrates that surface air temperatures were warmed by an average of 0.48°C as a result of dry soil moisture conditions, compared to a high-temperature anomaly of 10°–20°C during the event. Air temperatures over eastern Washington and southern British Columbia were most sensitive to soil moisture anomalies, with 0000 UTC temperature anomalies ranging from 1.2° to 2.2°C. Trajectory analysis indicated that rapid subsidence of elevated parcels prevented air parcels from being affected by surface heat fluxes over a prolonged period of time, resulting in a relatively small temperature sensitivity to soil moisture. Changes to soil moisture also altered regional pressure, low-level wind, and geopotential heights, as well as modified the marine air intrusion along the Pacific coast of Washington and Oregon. Significance Statement The record-breaking western North American heatwave of late June 2021 was preceded by below-normal soil moisture over the region. This study evaluates the role of soil moisture on the 2021 heatwave, demonstrating that the anomalous temperatures during this extreme event were not significantly increased by below-normal soil moisture.
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Changes to tropical eastern North Pacific intraseasonal variability under global warming, implications for tropical cyclogenesis
Changes to the tropical eastern North Pacific Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) at the end of the 21st century and implications for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis are examined in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data set. Multimodel mean composite low-level wind and precipitation anomalies associated with the leading intraseasonal mode indicate that precipitation amplitude increases while wind amplitude weakens under global warming, consistent with previous studies for the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The eastern North Pacific intraseasonal precipitation/wind pattern also tends to shift southwestward in a warmer climate, associated with weaker positive precipitation anomalies near the coast of Mexico and Central America during the enhanced convection/westerly wind phase. Implications for the modulation of TC genesis by the leading intraseasonal mode are then explored using an empirical genesis potential index (GPI). In the historical simulation, GPI shows positive anomalies in the eastern North Pacific in the convectively enhanced phase of the ISO. The ISO’s modulation of GPI weakens near the coast of Mexico and Central America with warming, associated with a southward shift of GPI anomalies. Further examination of the contribution from individual environmental variables that enter the GPI shows that relative humidity and vorticity changes during ISO events weaken positive GPI anomalies near the Mexican coast with warming and make genesis more favorable to the southwest. The impact of vertical shear anomaly changes is also to favor genesis away from the coast. These results suggest a weaker modulation of TCs near the Mexican Coast by the ISO in a warmer climate.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10326492
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmósfera
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0187-6236
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 611 to 631
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.53021
