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1. 1,050 years of Hurricane Strikes on Long Island in The Bahamas

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156  

   Wallace, E. J. ; Donnelly, J. P. ; van Hengstum, P. J. ; Winkler, T. S. ; McKeon, K. ; MacDonald, D. ; d'Entremont, N. E. ; Sullivan, R. M. ; Woodruff, J. D. ; Hawkes, A. D. ; et al ( March 2021 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial‐scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse‐grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin‐wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight‐moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.

    

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2. Oceanic passage of hurricanes across Cay Sal Bank in The Bahamas over the last 530 years

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2021.106653  

   Tyler S Winkler, Peter J ( January 2022 , Marine geology)

   Islands across the Bahamian Archipelago have been devastated by five major hurricanes from 2010 to 2020 CE, including Category 5 Hurricane Dorian in 2019 that inundated parts of Abaco and Grand Bahama with up to 4 m of surge, killing 84 people and leaving >245 others missing. Up to 1 m relative sea-level rise is estimated for The Bahamas by 2100 CE, which could enhance flooding from weaker storms ( more » « less
3. Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years at South Andros Island, The Bahamas

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003665  

   Wallace, E. J. ; Donnelly, J. P. ; van Hengstum, P. J. ; Wiman, C. ; Sullivan, R. M. ; Winkler, T. S. ; d'Entremont, N. E. ; Toomey, M. ; Albury, N. ( November 2019 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.

    

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4. More Frequent Hurricane Passage Across the Bahamian Archipelago During the Little Ice Age

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023PA004623  

   Winkler, T. S. ; van Hengstum, P. J. ; Donnelly, J. P. ; Wallace, E. J. ; Albury, N. A. ; D’Entremont, N. ; Hawkes, A. D. ; Maio, C. V. ; Roberts, J. ; Sullivan, R. M. ; et al ( November 2023 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The year 2020 Common Era (CE) experienced the highest number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1850 CE, but the short instrumental record makes it challenging to assess if this level of activity is statistically meaningful. Here, we present two near‐annually resolved hurricane reconstructions from sediment archived in two blue holes located only 300 m apart on the northern margin of Grand Bahama. These two blue holes provide a replicated signal of hurricanes passing within a 50–100 km radius over the last 1,800 years, and the long‐term reconstructions document multiple 50‐to‐150‐year intervals when hurricane frequency was significantly higher than it has been over the last 100 years. These two records were first merged into a single stack, and then compiled with five other high‐resolution reconstructions from across the Bahamian Archipelago to form a single 1500‐year record of Bahamian hurricane frequency. This new Bahamian Compilation documents more hurricanes passing ∼75°W from 21°N to 26°N during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300–1850 CE) relative to the prior millennium and the last 170 years. The US Eastern Seaboard also experienced heightened hurricane activity during the LIA, whereas the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Caribbean were inactive. This suggests that despite a globally cooler climate, regional climate conditions during the LIA remained favorable for cyclogenesis and intensification along certain Atlantic hurricane pathways. Perhaps heightened Sahel rainfall during the LIA indicates an increase in African Easterly waves, which in turn possibly seeded more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Main Development Region.

    

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5. Human arrival and landscape dynamics in the northern Bahamas

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015764118  

   Fall, Patricia L. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Lavold-Foote, Lisa ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Albury, Nancy A. ; Tamalavage, Anne E. ( March 2021 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   The first Caribbean settlers were Amerindians from South America. Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the final islands colonized in the northernmost Bahamas, were inhabited by the Lucayans when Europeans arrived. The timing of Lucayan arrival in the northern Bahamas has been uncertain because direct archaeological evidence is limited. We document Lucayan arrival on Great Abaco Island through a detailed record of vegetation, fire, and landscape dynamics based on proxy data from Blackwood Sinkhole. From about 3,000 to 1,000 y ago, forests dominated by hardwoods and palms were resilient to the effects of hurricanes and cooling sea surface temperatures. The arrival of Lucayans by about 830 CE (2σ range: 720 to 920 CE) is demarcated by increased burning and followed by landscape disturbance and a time-transgressive shift from hardwoods and palms to the modern pine forest. Considering that Lucayan settlements in the southern Bahamian archipelago are dated to about 750 CE (2σ range: 600 to 900 CE), these results demonstrate that Lucayans spread rapidly through the archipelago in less than 100 y. Although precontact landscapes would have been influenced by storms and climatic trends, the most pronounced changes follow more directly from landscape burning and ecosystem shifts after Lucayan arrival. The pine forests of Abaco declined substantially between 1500 and 1670 CE, a period of increased regional hurricane activity, coupled with fires on an already human-impacted landscape. Any future intensification of hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean threatens the sustainability of modern pine forests in the northern Bahamas. 

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