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1. Optimizing a Model of Coseismic Rupture for the 22 July 2020 M W 7.8 Simeonof Earthquake by Exploiting Acute Sensitivity of Tsunami Excitation Across the Shelf Break

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024484  

   Bai, Yefei ; Liu, Chengli ; Lay, Thorne ; Cheung, Kwok Fai ; Ye, Lingling ( July 2022 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)

   The Shumagin seismic gap along the Alaska Peninsula experienced a major,M_W7.8, interplate thrust earthquake on 22 July 2020. Several available finite‐fault inversions indicate patchy slip of up to 4 m at 8–48 km depth. There are differences among the models in peak slip and absolute placement of slip on the plate boundary, resulting from differences in data distributions, model parameterizations, and inversion algorithms. Two representative slip models obtained from inversions of large seismic and geodetic data sets produce very different tsunami predictions at tide gauges and deep‐water pressure sensors (DART stations), despite having only secondary differences in slip distribution. This is found to be the result of the acute sensitivity of the tsunami excitation for rupture below the continental shelf in proximity to an abrupt shelf break. Iteratively perturbing seismic and geodetic inversions by constraining fault model extent along dip and strike, we obtain an optimal rupture model compatible with teleseismicPandSHwaves, regional three‐component broadband and strong‐motion seismic recordings, hr‐GNSS time series and static offsets, as well as tsunami recordings at DART stations and regional and remote tide gauges. Slip is tightly bounded between 25 and 40 km depth, the up‐dip limit of slip in the earthquake is resolved to be well‐inland of the shelf break, and the rupture extent along strike is well‐constrained. The coseismic slip increased Coulomb stress on the shallow plate boundary extending to the trench, but the frictional behavior of the megathrust below the continental slope remains uncertain.

    

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2. Seismicity of the Incoming Plate and Forearc Near the Mariana Trench Recorded by Ocean Bottom Seismographs

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC008953  

   Eimer, Melody ; Wiens, Douglas A. ; Cai, Chen ; Lizarralde, Daniel ; Jasperson, Hope ( April 2020 , Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems)

   Earthquakes near oceanic trenches are important for studying incoming plate bending and updip thrust zone seismogenesis, yet are poorly constrained using seismographs on land. We use an ocean bottom seismograph (OBS) deployment spanning both the incoming Pacific Plate and the forearc to study seismicity near the Mariana Trench. The yearlong deployment in 2012–2013 consisted of 20 broadband OBSs and 5 suspended hydrophones, with an additional 59 short period OBSs and hydrophones recording for 1 month. We locate 1,692 earthquakes using a nonlinear method with a 3D velocity model constructed from active source profiles and surface wave tomography results. Events occurring seaward of the trench occur to depths of ~35 km below the seafloor, and focal mechanisms of the larger events indicate normal faulting corresponding to plate bending. Significant seismicity emerges about 70 km seaward from the trench, and the seismicity rate increases continuously towards the trench, indicating that the largest bending deformation occurs near the trench axis. These plate‐bending earthquakes occur along faults that facilitate the hydration of the subducting plate, and the lateral and depth distribution of earthquakes is consistent with low‐velocity regions imaged in previous studies. The forearc is marked by a heterogeneous distribution of low magnitude (<5 M_w) thrust zone seismicity, possibly due to the rough incoming plate topography and/or serpentinization of the forearc. A sequence of thrust earthquakes occurs at depths ~10 km below seafloor and within 20 km of the trench axis, demonstrating that the megathrust is seismically active nearly to the trench.

    

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3. NanTroSEIZE Stage 3: Shallow Megasplay Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.365.2017  

   Saffer, D. ; Kopf, A. ; Toczko, S. ( August 2017 , Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)

   null (Ed.)

   The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) is a coordinated, multiexpedition International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drilling project designed to investigate fault mechanics and seismogenesis along subduction megathrusts through direct sampling, in situ measurements, and long-term monitoring in conjunction with allied laboratory and numerical modeling studies. The fundamental scientific objectives of the NanTroSEIZE drilling project include characterizing the nature of fault slip and strain accumulation, fault and wall rock composition, fault architecture, and state variables throughout the active plate boundary system. IODP Expedition 365 is part of NanTroSEIZE Stage 3, with the following primary objectives: 1. Retrieval of a temporary observatory at Site C0010 that began monitoring temperature and pore pressure within the major splay thrust fault (termed the “megasplay”) at 400 meters below seafloor in November 2010. 2. Deployment of a complex long-term borehole monitoring system (LTBMS) designed to be connected to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) seafloor cabled observatory network postexpedition. The LTBMS incorporates multilevel pore pressure sensing, a volumetric strainmeter, tiltmeter, geophone, broadband seismometer, accelerometer, and thermistor string. Together with an existing observatory at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0002 and a planned future installation near the trench, the Site C0010 observatory allows monitoring within and above regions of contrasting behavior of the megasplay fault and the plate boundary as a whole. These include a site above the updip edge of the locked zone (Site C0002), a shallow site in the megasplay fault zone and its footwall (Site C0010), and a site at the tip of the accretionary prism (possible future installation at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0006). Together, this suite of observatories has the potential to capture deformation spanning a wide range of timescales (e.g., seismic and microseismic activity, slow slip, and interseismic strain accumulation) across a transect from near-trench to the seismogenic zone. Site C0010 is located 3.5 km along strike to the southwest of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0004. The site was drilled and cased during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 319, with casing screens spanning a ~20 m interval that includes the megasplay fault, and suspended with a temporary instrument package (a “SmartPlug”), which included pressure and temperature sensors. During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 332 in late 2010, the instrument package was replaced with an upgraded sensor package (the “GeniusPlug”), which included a set of geochemical and biological experiments in addition to pressure and temperature sensors. Expedition 365 achieved its primary scientific and operational objectives, including recovery of the GeniusPlug with a >5 y record of pressure and temperature conditions within the shallow megasplay fault zone, geochemical samples, and its in situ microbial colonization experiment; and installation of the LTBMS. The pressure records from the GeniusPlug include high-quality records of formation and seafloor responses to multiple fault slip events, including the 11 March 2011 Tohoku M9 and 1 April 2016 Mie-ken Nanto-oki M6 earthquakes. The geochemical sampling coils yielded in situ pore fluids from the splay fault zone, and microorganisms were successfully cultivated from the colonization unit. The complex sensor array, in combination with the multilevel hole completion, is one of the most ambitious and sophisticated observatory installations in scientific ocean drilling (similar to that in Hole C0002G, deployed in 2010). Overall, the installation went smoothly, efficiently, and ahead of schedule. The extra time afforded by the efficient observatory deployment was used for coring in Holes C0010B–C0010E. Despite challenging hole conditions, the depth interval corresponding to the screened casing across the megasplay fault was successfully sampled in Hole C0010C, and the footwall of the megasplay was sampled in Hole C0010E, with >50% recovery for both zones. In the hanging wall of the megasplay fault (Holes C0010C and C0010D), we recovered indurated silty clay with occasional ash layers and sedimentary breccias. Mudstones show different degrees of deformation spanning from occasional fractures to intervals of densely fractured scaly claystones of up to >10 cm thickness. Sparse faulting with low displacement (usually <2 cm) is seen in core and exhibits primarily normal and, rarely, reversed sense of slip. When present, ash was entrained along fractures and faults. In Hole C0010E, the footwall to the megasplay fault was recovered. Sediments are horizontally to gently dipping and mainly comprise silt of olive-gray color. The hanging wall sediments recovered in Holes C0010C–C0010D range in age from 3.79 to 5.59 Ma and have been thrust over the younger footwall sediments in Hole C0010E, ranging in age from 1.56 to 1.67 Ma. The deposits of the underthrust sediment prism are less indurated than the hanging wall mudstones and show lamination on a centimeter scale. The material is less intensely deformed than the mudstones, and apart from occasional fracturation (some of it being drilling disturbance), evidence of structural features is absent. 

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4. Expedition 365 Preliminary Report: NanTroSEIZE Stage 3: Shallow Megasplay Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System (LTBMS)

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.pr.365.2016  

   Kopf, A. ; Saffer, D. ; Toczko, S. ( October 2016 , Preliminary report)

   null (Ed.)

   The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) is a coordinated, multiexpedition International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drilling project designed to investigate fault mechanics and seismogenesis along subduction megathrusts through direct sampling, in situ measurements, and long-term monitoring in conjunction with allied laboratory and numerical modeling studies. The fundamental scientific objectives of the NanTroSEIZE drilling project include characterizing the nature of fault slip and strain accumulation, fault and wall rock composition, fault architecture, and state variables throughout the active plate boundary system. IODP Expedition 365 is part of NanTroSEIZE Stage 3, with the following primary objectives: (1) retrieval of a temporary observatory at Site C0010 that has been monitoring temperature and pore pressure within the major splay thrust fault (termed the “megasplay”) at 400 meters below seafloor since November 2010 and (2) deployment of a complex long-term borehole monitoring system (LTBMS) that will be connected to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) seafloor cabled observatory network postexpedition (anticipated June 2016). The LTBMS incorporates multilevel pore pressure sensing, a volumetric strainmeter, tiltmeter, geophone, broadband seismometer, accelerometer, and thermistor string. Together with an existing observatory at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0002 and a possible future installation near the trench, the Site C0010 observatory will allow monitoring within and above regions of contrasting behavior of the megasplay fault and the plate boundary as a whole. These include a site above the updip edge of the locked zone (Site C0002), a shallow site in the megasplay fault zone and its footwall (Site C0010), and a site at the tip of the accretionary prism (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0006). Together, this suite of observatories has the potential to capture deformation spanning a wide range of timescales (e.g., seismic and microseismic activity, slow slip, and interseismic strain accumulation) across a transect from near-trench to the seismogenic zone. Site C0010 is located 3.5 km along strike to the southwest of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0004. The site was drilled and cased during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 319, with casing screens spanning a ~20 m interval that includes the megasplay fault, and suspended with a temporary instrument package (a “SmartPlug”). During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 332 in late 2010, the instrument package was replaced with an upgraded sensor package (the “GeniusPlug”), which included pressure and temperature sensors and a set of geochemical and biological experiments. Expedition 365 achieved its primary scientific and operational objectives, including recovery of the GeniusPlug with a >5 y record of pressure and temperature conditions within the shallow megasplay fault zone, geochemical samples, and its in situ microbial colonization experiment; and installation of the LTBMS. The pressure records from the GeniusPlug include high-quality records of formation and seafloor responses to multiple fault slip events, including the 11 March 2011 Tohoku M9 and 1 April 2016 Mie-ken Nanto-oki M6 earthquakes. The geochemical sampling coils yielded in situ pore fluids from the splay fault zone, and microbes were successfully cultivated from the colonization unit. The complex sensor array, in combination with the multilevel hole completion, is one of the most ambitious and sophisticated observatory installations in scientific ocean drilling (similar to that in Hole C0002G, deployed in 2010). Overall, the installation went smoothly, efficiently, and ahead of schedule. The extra time afforded by the efficient observatory deployment was used for coring in Holes C0010B–C0010E. Despite challenging hole conditions, the depth interval corresponding to the screened casing across the megasplay fault was successfully sampled in Hole C0010C, and the footwall of the megasplay was sampled in Hole C0010E, with >50% recovery for both zones. In the hanging wall of the megasplay fault (Holes C0010C and C0010D), we recovered indurated silty clay with occasional ash layers and sedimentary breccias. Some of the deposits show burrows and zones of diagenetic alteration/colored patches. Mudstones show different degrees of deformation spanning from occasional fractures to intervals of densely fractured scaly claystones of up to >10 cm thickness. Sparse faulting with low displacement (usually <2 cm) is seen in core and exhibits primarily normal and, rarely, reversed sense of slip. When present, ash was entrained along fractures and faults. On one occasion, a ~10 cm thick ash layer was found, which showed a fining-downward gradation into a mottled zone with clasts of the underlying silty claystones. In Hole C0010E, the footwall to the megasplay fault was recovered. Sediments are horizontally to gently dipping and mainly comprise silt of olive-gray color. The deposits of the underthrust sediment prism are less indurated than the hanging wall mudstones and show lamination on a centimeter scale. The material is less intensely deformed than the mudstones, and apart from occasional fracturation (some of it being drilling disturbance), evidence of structural features is absent. 

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5. Rupture Model for the 29 July 2021 M W 8.2 Chignik, Alaska Earthquake Constrained by Seismic, Geodetic, and Tsunami Observations

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023676  

   Ye, Lingling ; Bai, Yefei ; Si, Daojun ; Lay, Thorne ; Cheung, Kwok Fai ; Kanamori, Hiroo ( July 2022 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)

   A great earthquake struck the Semidi segment of the plate boundary along the Alaska Peninsula on 29 July 2021, re‐rupturing part of the 1938 rupture zone. The 2021M_W8.2 Chignik earthquake occurred just northeast of the 22 July 2020M_W7.8 Simeonof earthquake, with little slip overlap. Analysis of teleseismicPandSHwaves, regional Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) displacements, and near‐field and far‐field tsunami observations provides a good resolution of the 2021 rupture process. During ∼60‐s long faulting, the slip was nonuniformly distributed along the megathrust over depths from 32 to 40 km, with up to ∼12.9‐m slip in an ∼170‐km‐long patch. The 40–45 km down‐dip limit of slip is well constrained by GNSS observations along the Alaska Peninsula. Tsunami observations preclude significant slip from extending to depths <25 km, confining all coseismic slip to beneath the shallow continental shelf. Most aftershocks locate seaward of the large‐slip zones, with a concentration of activity up‐dip of the deeper southwestern slip zone. Some localized aftershock patches locate beneath the continental slope. The surface‐wave magnitudeM_Sof 8.1 for the 2021 earthquake is smaller thanM_S = 8.3–8.4 for the 1938 event. Seismic and tsunami data indicate that slip in 1938 was concentrated in the eastern region of its aftershock zone, extending beyond the Semidi Islands, where the 2021 event did not rupture.

    

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