skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Mesoscale Gravity Waves and Midlatitude Weather: A Tribute to Fuqing Zhang
Abstract Over the course of his career, Fuqing Zhang drew vital new insights into the dynamics of meteorologically significant mesoscale gravity waves (MGWs), including their generation by unbalanced jet streaks, their interaction with fronts and organized precipitation, and their importance in midlatitude weather and predictability. Zhang was the first to deeply examine “spontaneous balance adjustment”—the process by which MGWs are continuously emitted as baroclinic growth drives the upper-level flow out of balance. Through his pioneering numerical model investigation of the large-amplitude MGW event of 4 January 1994, he additionally demonstrated the critical role of MGW–moist convection interaction in wave amplification. Zhang’s curiosity-turned-passion in atmospheric science covered a vast range of topics and led to the birth of new branches of research in mesoscale meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Yet, it was his earliest studies into midlatitude MGWs and their significant impacts on hazardous weather that first inspired him. Such MGWs serve as the focus of this review, wherein we seek to pay tribute to his groundbreaking contributions, review our current understanding, and highlight critical open science issues. Chief among such issues is the nature of MGW amplification through feedback with moist convection, which continues to elude a complete understanding. The pressing nature of this subject is underscored by the continued failure of operational numerical forecast models to adequately predict most large-amplitude MGW events. Further research into such issues therefore presents a valuable opportunity to improve the understanding and forecasting of this high-impact weather phenomenon, and in turn, to preserve the spirit of Zhang’s dedication to this subject.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1712290
PAR ID:
10330931
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume:
103
Issue:
1
ISSN:
0003-0007
Page Range / eLocation ID:
E129 to E156
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract We investigate the sensitivity of mesoscale atmospheric predictability to the slope of the background kinetic energy spectrum E by adding initial errors to simulations of idealized moist midlatitude cyclones at several wavenumbers k for which the slope of E (k) is significantly different. These different slopes arise from 1) differences in the E (k) generated by cyclones growing in two different moist baroclinically unstable environments, and 2) differences in the horizontal scale at which initial perturbations are added, with E (k) having steeper slopes at larger scales. When small-amplitude potential temperature perturbations are added, the error growth through the subsequent 36-h simulation is not sensitive to the slope of E (k) nor to the horizontal scale of the initial error. In all cases with small-amplitude perturbations, the error growth in physical space is dominated by moist convection along frontal boundaries. As such, the error field is localized in physical space and broad in wavenumber (spectral) space. In moist midlatitude cyclones, these broadly distributed errors in wavenumber space limit mesoscale predictability by growing up-amplitude rather than by cascading upscale to progressively longer wavelengths. In contrast, the error distribution in homogeneous turbulence is broad in physical space and localized in wavenumber space, and dimensional analysis can be used to estimate the error growth rate at a specific wavenumber k from E (k). Predictability estimates derived in this manner, and from the numerical solutions of idealized models of homogeneous turbulence, depend on whether the slope of E (k) is shallower or steeper than k^ −3 , which differs from the slope-insensitive behavior exhibited by moist midlatitude cyclones. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract On 5 March 2023, Professor Lev Gutman would have been 100 years old. This article describes Professor Gutman’s legacy in the field of dynamic mesoscale meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Gutman developed his career as a mathematician and meteorologist in the Soviet Union, where he built a school of specialists in mesoscale meteorology from the 1950s through the 1970s. He primarily worked on analytical methods to solve complex nonlinear problems, such as the structure of sea breezes, mountain–valley circulations, and thermal convection over heated terrain. Gutman pioneered the development of theories of cumulus clouds, tornadoes, and other atmospheric phenomena. In the 1960s, he carried out numerous research investigations on these topics with his doctoral students and collaborators at the High-Altitude Geophysical Institute in Nalchik in the northern Caucasus and later at the Siberian Scientific Center near Novosibirsk. Gutman compiled the results from these studies into a monograph titled “Introduction to the Nonlinear Theory of Mesoscale Meteorological Processes,” which was published in Russian in 1969 and later translated into English, Chinese, and Japanese. This monograph became a major textbook for specialists in mesoscale meteorology, remaining relevant to this day. After Professor Gutman immigrated to Israel in 1978, his collaborations expanded to include Israeli and western scientists from Europe and the United States. Gutman did not receive the recognition he deserved due to the political realities of the time. His book and his seminal analytical solutions should still be useful for early career scientists in mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric dynamics. 
    more » « less
  3. Convective parameterization is the long-lasting bottleneck of global climate modelling and one of the most difficult problems in atmospheric sciences. Uncertainty in convective parameterization is the leading cause of the widespread climate sensitivity in IPCC global warming projections. This paper reviews the observations and parameterizations of atmospheric convection with emphasis on the cloud structure, bulk effects, and closure assumption. The representative state-of-the-art convection schemes are presented, including the ECMWF convection scheme, the Grell scheme used in NCEP model and WRF model, the Zhang-MacFarlane scheme used in NCAR and DOE models, and parameterizations of shallow moist convection. The observed convection has self-suppression mechanisms caused by entrainment in convective updrafts, surface cold pool generated by unsaturated convective downdrafts, and warm and dry lower troposphere created by mesoscale downdrafts. The post-convection environment is often characterized by “diamond sounding” suggesting an over-stabilization rather than barely returning to neutral state. Then the pre-convection environment is characterized by slow moistening of lower troposphere triggered by surface moisture convergence and other mechanisms. The over-stabilization and slow moistening make the convection events episodic and decouple the middle/upper troposphere from the boundary layer, making the state-type quasi-equilibrium hypothesis invalid. Right now, unsaturated convective downdrafts and especially mesoscale downdrafts are missing in most convection schemes, while some schemes are using undiluted convective updrafts, all of which favour easily turned-on convection linked to double-ITCZ (inter-tropical convergence zone), overly weak MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and precocious diurnal precipitation maximum. We propose a new strategy for convection scheme development using reanalysis-driven model experiments such as the assimilation runs in weather prediction centres and the decadal prediction runs in climate modelling centres, aided by satellite simulators evaluating key characteristics such as the lifecycle of convective cloud-top distribution and stratiform precipitation fraction. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract This study analyzes the low short-range predictability of the 3 May 2020 derecho using a 40-member convection-allowing Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) ensemble. Elevated storms formed in south-central Kansas late at night and evolved into a progressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) during the morning while moving across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, and affected western and middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky in the afternoon. The convective initiation (CI) in south-central Kansas, the organization of a dominant bow echo MCS, and the MCS maintenance over Tennessee were identified as the three main predictability issues. These issues were explored using three MPAS ensemble members, observations, and the Rapid Refresh analyses. The MPAS members were classified as successful or unsuccessful with regard to each predictability issue. CI in south-central Kansas was sensitive to the temperature and dewpoint profiles in low levels, which were associated with greater elevated thermodynamic instability and lower level of free convection in the successful member. The subsequent organization of a dominant bowing MCS was well predicted by the member that had more widespread convection in the early stages and no detrimental interaction with other simulated convective systems. Last, the inability of MPAS ensemble members to predict the MCS maintenance over western and middle Tennessee was linked to a dry bias in low levels and much lower thermodynamic instability ahead of the MCS compared to observations. This case demonstrates the challenges in operational forecasting of warm-season derecho-producing progressive MCSs, particularly when ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance solutions differ considerably. 
    more » « less