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Abstract With GW170817 being the only multimessenger gravitational-wave (GW) event with an associated kilonova detected so far, there exists a pressing need for realistic estimation of the GW localization uncertainties and rates, as well as optimization of available telescope time to enable the detection of new kilonovae. We simulate GW events assuming a data-driven distribution of binary parameters for the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA fourth and fifth observing runs (O4 and O5). We map the binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) properties to the kilonova optical light curves. We use the simulated population of kilonovae to generate follow-up observing plans, with the primary goal of optimizing detection with the Gravitational Wave Multi-Messenger Astronomy DECam Survey. We explore the dependence of kilonova detectability on the mass, distance, inclination, and spin of the binaries. Assuming that no BNS was detected during O4 until the end of 2024, we present updated GW BNS (NSBH) merger detection rates. We expect to detect BNS (NSBH) kilonovae with DECam at a per-year rate of 0–2.0 (0) in O4 and 2.0–19 (0–1.0) in O5. We expect the majority of BNS detections and also those accompanied by a detectable kilonova to produce a hypermassive NS remnant, with a significant fraction of the remaining BNSs promptly collapsing to a BH. We release GW simulations and depths required to detect kilonovae based on our predictions to support the astronomical community in their multimessenger follow-up campaigns and analyses.
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The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425
Abstract In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r -process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole−neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.
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- PAR ID:
- 10331447
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 922
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 269
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Recent gravitational wave (GW) observations include possible detections of black hole—neutron star binary mergers. As with binary black hole mergers, numerical simulations help characterize the sources. For binary systems with neutron star components, the simulations help to predict the imprint of tidal deformations and disruptions on the GW signals. In a previous study, we investigated how the mass of the black hole has an impact on the disruption of the neutron star and, as a consequence, on the shape of the GWs emitted. We extend these results to study the effects of varying the compactness of the neutron star. We consider neutron star compactness in the 0.113–0.2 range for binaries with mass ratios of 3 and 5. As the compactness and the mass ratio increase, the binary system behaves during the late inspiral and merger more like a black hole binary. For the cases with the least compact neutron star, the GWs emitted, in terms of mismatches, are the most distinguishable from those by a binary black hole. The disruption of the star significantly suppresses the kicks on the final black hole. The disruption also affects, although not dramatically, the spin of the final black hole. Lastly, for neutron stars with low compactness, the quasi-normal ringing of the black hole after the merger does not show a clean quasi-normal ringing because of the late accretion of debris from the neutron star.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac222d
