More Like this

1. Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002086  

   Ramsay, Hamish A. ; Singh, Martin S. ; Chavas, Daniel R. ( October 2020 , Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems)

   There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large‐scale environmental factors is largely empirical. Here, we explore the sensitivity of TC formation and intensification rates to climate warming in a series of highly idealized cloud‐permitting simulations, in which TCs form spontaneously from a base state of rest on anf‐plane. The simulations reveal a nonmonotonic relationship between the time taken for a TC precursor disturbance (a “seed”) to form and the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), with moderately long seed emergence times at both ends of the SST range tested (292 and 304 K) and a shorter seed emergence time at the middle value of SST (298 K). Genesis potential indices (GPIs) exhibit a different response to warming: either a monotonic increase if the potential intensity and midtropospheric relative humidity are used or relatively little sensitivity if the saturation deficit is used as the humidity variable. The sensitivity of elapsed time between a TC seed disturbance and TC genesis to surface warming is, however, generally well captured by GPIs, especially those that depend on the saturation deficit. The maximum intensification rate of TCs increases strongly with warming, particularly during the second half of the intensification process. Notably, storms intensify much more rapidly with increasing temperature than is predicted by extant theory based on potential intensity, suggesting that TCs in a warmer climate may intensify even more rapidly than recent studies suggest.

    

   more » « less
2. Warming, drought, and disturbances lead to shifts in functional composition: A millennial‐scale analysis for Amazonian and Andean sites

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16818  

   van der Sande, Masha T. ; Bush, Mark B. ; Åkesson, Christine M. ; Berrio, Juan Carlos ; Correia Metrio, Alex ; Flantua, Suzette G. A. ; Hooghiemstra, Henry ; Maezumi, S. Yoshi ; McMichael, Crystal N. H. ; Montoya, Encarni ; et al ( June 2023 , Global Change Biology)

   Tropical forests are changing in composition and productivity, probably in response to changes in climate and disturbances. The responses to these multiple environmental drivers, and the mechanisms underlying the changes, remain largely unknown. Here, we use a functional trait approach on timescales of 10,000 years to assess how climate and disturbances influence the community‐mean adult height, leaf area, seed mass, and wood density for eight lowland and highland forest landscapes. To do so, we combine data of eight fossil pollen records with functional traits and proxies for climate (temperature, precipitation, and El Niño frequency) and disturbances (fire and general disturbances). We found that temperature and disturbances were the most important drivers of changes in functional composition. Increased water availability (high precipitation and low El Niño frequency) generally led to more acquisitive trait composition (large leaves and soft wood). In lowland forests, warmer climates decreased community‐mean height probably because of increased water stress, whereas in highland forests warmer climates increased height probably because of upslope migration of taller species. Disturbance increased the abundance of acquisitive, disturbance‐adapted taxa with small seeds for quick colonization of disturbed sites, large leaves for light capture, and soft wood to attain fast height growth. Fire had weak effects on lowland forests but led to more stress‐adapted taxa that are tall with fast life cycles and small seeds that can quickly colonize burned sites. Site‐specific analyses were largely in line with cross‐site analyses, except for varying site‐level effects of El Niño frequency and fire activity, possibly because regional patterns in El Niño are not a good predictor of local changes, and charcoal abundances do not reflect fire intensity or severity. With future global changes, tropical Amazonian and Andean forests may transition toward shorter, drought‐ and disturbance‐adapted forests in the lowlands but taller forests in the highlands.

    

   more » « less
3. Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0259.1  

   Michaelis, Allison C. ; Lackmann, Gary M. ( December 2019 , Journal of Climate)

   Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) can develop into intense cyclonic systems accompanied by high-impact weather in areas far removed from the original TC. This study presents an analysis of multiseasonal global simulations representative of present-day and projected future climates using the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A), with high resolution (15-km grid) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. TCs are tracked as minima in sea level pressure (SLP) accompanied by a warm core, and TC tracks are extended into the extratropical phase based on local minima in SLP and use of a cyclone phase space method. The present-day simulations adequately represent observed ET characteristics such as frequency, location, and seasonal cycles throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The most significant changes in future ET events occur in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin. Here, a more favorable background environment, a shift toward stronger TC warm cores in the lower troposphere, and a significant poleward shift in TC location lead to a ~40% increase in the number of NATL ET events and a ~6% increase in the fraction of TCs undergoing ET. This equates to approximately 1–2 additional ET events per year in this region. In the future simulations, ET in the NATL occurs markedly farther north by ~4°–5°N, and the resultant extratropical cyclones are stronger by ~6 hPa. These changes hold potentially important implications for areas directly affected by ET events, such as eastern North America, as well as for regions indirectly impacted by downstream effects, including western Europe.

    

   more » « less
4. A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0071.1  

   Jing, Renzhi ; Lin, Ning ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Vecchi, Gabriel ; Knutson, Thomas R. ( August 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract In this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity. 

   more » « less
5. Balanced and Radiating Wave Responses to Diurnal Heating in Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortices Using a Linear Nonhydrostatic Model

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0361.1  

   Evans, Rebecca C. ; Nolan, David S. ( August 2019 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   The diurnal cycle (DC) in the cirrus canopy of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a well-documented phenomenon. While early studies linked the DC in the area of the cirrus canopy to a DC in the strength of eyewall convection, later studies considered it a direct response to the DC of radiation in the cirrus canopy. In this study, an idealized linear model is used to examine the extent to which linear dynamics can capture the DC in TCs, in particular the transition between balanced and radiating responses to diurnal heating. The model heat forcing is physically motivated by the diabatic heating output from a realistic simulation, which illustrates the presence of a DC in moist convective heating and radiative heating in the eyewall, and a DC in radiative heating in the cirrus canopy. This study finds that the DCs of heating in the eyewall yield a response that is restricted to inside the RMW by the high inertial stability in the inner core. The DC of radiative heating in the cirrus canopy yields a response throughout the entire cyclone. Lower-frequency responses, of diurnal and semidiurnal frequency, are balanced throughout much of the cyclone. High-frequency waves with periods under 8 h, created at sunrise and sunset, can radiate outward and downward. These results indicate that diurnal responses are balanced in the majority of a TC and originate in the cirrus canopy, instead of the eyewall. The DC in cirrus canopy vertical motion also appears to originate in the cirrus canopy.

    

   more » « less