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What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation—environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.
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Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits
Environmental fluctuations are pervasive in nature, but the influence of non-directional temporal variation on range limits has received scant attention. We synthesize insights from the literature and use simple models to make conceptual points about the potentially wide range of ecological and evolutionary effects of temporal variation on range limits. Because organisms respond nonlinearly to environmental conditions, temporal variation can directionally alter long-term growth rates, either to shrink or to expand ranges. We illustrate this diversity of outcomes with a model of competition along a mortality gradient. Temporal variation can permit transitions between alternative states, potentially facilitating range expansion. We show this for variation in dispersal, using simple source–sink population models (with strong Allee effects, or with gene flow hampering local adaptation). Temporal variation enhances extinction risk owing to demographic stochasticity, rare events, and loss of genetic variation, all tending to shrink ranges. However, specific adaptations to exploit variation (including dispersal) may permit larger ranges than in similar but constant environments. Grappling with temporal variation is essential both to understand eco-evolutionary dynamics at range limits and to guide conservation and management strategies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1923513
- PAR ID:
- 10334826
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 377
- Issue:
- 1848
- ISSN:
- 0962-8436
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0016
