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Abstract Temporal patterns in chemistry of headwater streams reflect responses of water and elemental cycles to perturbations occurring at local to global scales. We evaluated multi-scale temporal patterns in up to 32 y of monthly observations of stream chemistry (ammonium, calcium, dissolved organic carbon, nitrate, total dissolved phosphorus, and sulfate) in 22 reference catchments within the northern temperate zone of North America. Multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models were applied to quantify patterns at multi-decadal, seasonal, and shorter intervals during a period that encompassed warming climate, seasonal changes in precipitation, and regional declines in atmospheric deposition. Significant long-term trends in solute concentrations within a subset of the catchments were consistent with recovery from atmospheric deposition (e.g., calcium, nitrate, sulfate) and increased precipitation (e.g., dissolved organic carbon). Lack of evidence for multi-decadal trends in most catchments suggests resilience of northern temperate ecosystems or that subtle net effects of simultaneous changes in climate and disturbance regimes do not result in directional trends. Synchronous seasonal oscillations of solute concentrations occurred across many catchments, reflecting shared climate and biotic drivers of seasonality within the northern temperate zone. Despite shared patterns among catchments at a seasonal scale, multi-scale temporal patterns were statistically distinct among even adjacent headwater catchments, implying that local attributes of headwater catchments modify the signals imparted by atmospheric phenomena and regional disturbances. To effectively characterize hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes, catchment monitoring programs could include multiple streams with contributing areas that encompass regional heterogeneity in vegetation, topography, and elevation. Overall, detection of long-term patterns and trends requires monitoring multiple catchments at a frequency that captures periodic variation (e.g., seasonality) and a duration encompassing the perturbations of interest.
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Limited progress in nutrient pollution in the U.S. caused by spatially persistent nutrient sources
Human agriculture, wastewater, and use of fossil fuels have saturated ecosystems with nitrogen and phosphorus, threatening biodiversity and human water security at a global scale. Despite efforts to reduce nutrient pollution, carbon and nutrient concentrations have increased or remained high in many regions. Here, we applied a new ecohydrological framework to ~12,000 water samples collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from streams and lakes across the contiguous U.S. to identify spatial and temporal patterns in nutrient concentrations and leverage (an indicator of flux). For the contiguous U.S. and within ecoregions, we quantified trends for sites sampled repeatedly from 2000 to 2019, the persistence of spatial patterns over that period, and the patch size of nutrient sources and sinks. While we observed various temporal trends across ecoregions, the spatial patterns of nutrient and carbon concentrations in streams were persistent across and within ecoregions, potentially because of historical nutrient legacies, consistent nutrient sources, and inherent differences in nutrient removal capacity for various ecosystems. Watersheds showed strong critical source area dynamics in that 2–8% of the land area accounted for 75% of the estimated flux. Variability in nutrient contribution was greatest in catchments smaller than 250 km 2 for most parameters. An ensemble of four machine learning models confirmed previously observed relationships between nutrient concentrations and a combination of land use and land cover, demonstrating how human activity and inherent nutrient removal capacity interactively determine nutrient balance. These findings suggest that targeted nutrient interventions in a small portion of the landscape could substantially improve water quality at continental scales. We recommend a dual approach of first prioritizing the reduction of nutrient inputs in catchments that exert disproportionate influence on downstream water chemistry, and second, enhancing nutrient removal capacity by restoring hydrological connectivity both laterally and vertically in stream networks.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2011439
- PAR ID:
- 10341207
- Editor(s):
- Toor, Gurpal S.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PLOS ONE
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1932-6203
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e0258952
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258952
