skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 5:00 PM ET until 11:00 PM ET on Friday, June 21 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Dangers of Bayesian Model Averaging under Covariate Shift
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posterior contraction. We additionally show why the same issue does not affect many approximate inference procedures, or classical maximum a-posteriori (MAP) training. Finally, we propose novel priors that improve the robustness of BNNs to many sources of covariate shift.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1922658
NSF-PAR ID:
10341886
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Advances in neural information processing systems
ISSN:
1049-5258
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Binary neural network (BNN) delivers increased compute intensity and reduces memory/data requirements for computation. Scalable BNN enables inference in a limited time due to different constraints. This paper explores the application of Scalable BNN in oblivious inference, a service provided by a server to mistrusting clients. Using this service, a client can obtain the inference result on his/her data by a trained model held by the server without disclosing the data or learning the model parameters. Two contributions of this paper are: 1) we devise lightweight cryptographic protocols explicitly designed to exploit the unique characteristics of BNNs. 2) we present an advanced dynamic exploration of the runtime-accuracy tradeoff of scalable BNNs in a single-shot training process. While previous works trained multiple BNNs with different computational complexities (which is cumbersome due to the slow convergence of BNNs), we train a single BNN that can perform inference under various computational budgets. Compared to CryptFlow2, the state-of-the-art technique in the oblivious inference of non-binary DNNs, our approach reaches 3 × faster inference while keeping the same accuracy. Compared to XONN, the state-of-the-art technique in the oblivious inference of binary networks, we achieve 2 × to 12 × faster inference while obtaining higher accuracy. 
    more » « less
  2. Reliable environmental context prediction is critical for wearable robots (e.g., prostheses and exoskeletons) to assist terrain-adaptive locomotion. This article proposed a novel vision-based context prediction framework for lower limb prostheses to simultaneously predict human's environmental context for multiple forecast windows. By leveraging the Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), our framework can quantify the uncertainty caused by different factors (e.g., observation noise, and insufficient or biased training) and produce a calibrated predicted probability for online decision-making. We compared two wearable camera locations (a pair of glasses and a lower limb device), independently and conjointly. We utilized the calibrated predicted probability for online decision-making and fusion. We demonstrated how to interpret deep neural networks with uncertainty measures and how to improve the algorithms based on the uncertainty analysis. The inference time of our framework on a portable embedded system was less than 80 ms/frame. The results in this study may lead to novel context recognition strategies in reliable decision-making, efficient sensor fusion, and improved intelligent system design in various applications. 
    more » « less
  3. Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) are the result of a simplification of network parameters in Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The computational complexity of training ANNs increases significantly as the size of the network increases. This complexity can be greatly reduced if the parameters of the network are binarized. Binarization, which is a one bit quantization, can also come with complications including error and information loss. The implementation of BNNs on quantum hardware could potentially provide a computational advantage over its classical counterpart. This is due to the fact that binarized parameters fit nicely to the nature of quantum hardware. Quantum superposition allows the network to be trained more efficiently, without using back propagation techniques, with the application of Grover’s Algorithm for the training process. This paper looks into two BNN designs that utilize only quantum hardware, as opposed to hybrid quantum-classical implementations. It also provides practical implementations for both of them. Looking into their scalability, improvements on the design are proposed to reduce complexity even further. 
    more » « less
  4. Summary

    Scenario‐based model predictive control (MPC) methods can mitigate the conservativeness inherent to open‐loop robust MPC. Yet, the scenarios are often generated offline based on worst‐case uncertainty descriptions obtaineda priori, which can in turn limit the improvements in the robust control performance. To this end, this paper presents a learning‐based, adaptive‐scenario‐tree model predictive control approach for uncertain nonlinear systems with time‐varying and/or hard‐to‐model dynamics. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are used to learn a state‐ and input‐dependent description of model uncertainty, namely the mismatch between a nominal (physics‐based or data‐driven) model of a system and its actual dynamics. We first present a new approach for training robust BNNs (RBNNs) using probabilistic Lipschitz bounds to provide a less conservative uncertainty quantification. Then, we present an approach to evaluate the credible intervals of RBNN predictions and determine the number of samples required for estimating the credible intervals given a credible level. The performance of RBNNs is evaluated with respect to that of standard BNNs and Gaussian process (GP) as a basis of comparison. The RBNN description of plant‐model mismatch with verified accurate credible intervals is employed to generate adaptive scenarios online for scenario‐based MPC (sMPC). The proposed sMPC approach with adaptive scenario tree can improve the robust control performance with respect to sMPC with a fixed, worst‐case scenario tree and with respect to an adaptive‐scenario‐based MPC (asMPC) using GP regression on a cold atmospheric plasma system. Furthermore, closed‐loop simulation results illustrate that robust model uncertainty learning via RBNNs can enhance the probability of constraint satisfaction of asMPC.

     
    more » « less
  5. Parameter-space regularization in neural network optimization is a fundamental tool for improving generalization. However, standard parameter-space regularization methods make it challenging to encode explicit preferences about desired predictive functions into neural network training. In this work, we approach regularization in neural networks from a probabilistic perspective and show that by viewing parameter-space regularization as specifying an empirical prior distribution over the model parameters, we can derive a probabilistically well-motivated regularization technique that allows explicitly encoding information about desired predictive functions into neural network training. This method—which we refer to as function-space empirical Bayes (FS-EB)—includes both parameter- and function-space regularization, is mathematically simple, easy to implement, and incurs only minimal computational overhead compared to standard regularization techniques. We evaluate the utility of this regularization technique empirically and demonstrate that the proposed method leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection, highly-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates, successful task adaption from pre-trained models, and improved generalization under covariate shift. 
    more » « less