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1. Quantifying terminal white bands in Salix from the Yenisei river, Siberia and their relationship to late-season flooding

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-023-02386-5  

   Thaxton, Richard D. ; Panyushkina, Irina P. ; Meko, David M. ; von Arx, Georg ; Agafonov, Leonid I. ( January 2023 , Trees)

   Wood fiber cell wall thickness best characterizes white bands found at the end of certain growth rings inSalix alba.Evidence suggests these features are related to late-season hydrology.

   Recent, record-breaking discharge in the Yenisei River, Siberia, is part of a larger trend of increasing river flow in the Arctic driven by Arctic Amplification. These changes in magnitude and timing of discharge can lead to increased risk of extreme flood events, with implications for infrastructure, ecosystems, and climate. To better understand the effect of these changes on riparian tree growth along the lower reaches of the Yenisei River, we collected white willow (Salix alba) cross sections from a fluvial fill flat terrace that occasionally floods when water levels are extremely high. These samples displayed bands of lighter colored wood at the end of certain annual growth rings that we hypothesized were related to flood events. To identify the characteristics and causes of these features, we use an approach known as quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) to measure variation in fiber cell dimensions across tree rings, particularly fiber lumen area (LA) and cell wall thickness (CWT). We investigate (1) which cell parameters and method to extract intra-annual data from annual tree rings best capture terminal white bands identified inSalix, and (2) if these patterns are related to flood magnitude and/or duration. We find that fiber CWT best captures terminal white bands found inSalixrings. Time series derived from CWT measurements correlate with July water-level durations, but at levels too low to be labeled flooding. Although both terminal white bands and July flooding have reduced since 1980, questions remain as to the cause of terminal white bands. Understanding how riparian vegetation responds to changes in hydrology can help us better manage riparian ecosystems and understand the impacts of a changing Arctic hydrological regime.

    

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2. Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3  

   Debolskiy, Matvey V ; Alexeev, Vladimir A ; Hock, Regine ; Lammers, Richard B ; Shiklomanov, Alexander ; Schulla, Joerg ; Nicolsky, Dmitry ; Romanovsky, Vladimir E ; Prusevich, Alexander ( August 2021 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling. 

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3. Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024  

   Rawlins, Michael A. ; Karmalkar, Ambarish V. ( January 2024 , The Cryosphere)

   Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

    

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4. Do precipitation extremes drive growth and migration timing of a Pacific salmonid fish in Mediterranean‐climate streams?

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2618  

   Kelson, Suzanne J. ; Carlson, Stephanie M. ( March 2019 , Ecosphere)

   Climate change is expected to increase weather extremes and variability, including more frequent weather whiplashes or extreme swings between severe drought and extraordinarily wet years. Shifts in precipitation patterns will alter stream flow regimes, affecting critical life history stages of sensitive aquatic organisms. Understanding how threatened fish species, such as steelhead/rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), are affected by stream flows in years with contrasting environmental conditions is important for their conservation. Here, we report how extreme wet and dry years, from 2015 to 2018, affected stream flow patterns in two tributaries to the South Fork Eel River, California,USA, and aspects ofO. mykissecology, including over‐summer fish growth and body condition as well as spring out‐migration timing. We found that stream flow patterns differed across years in the timing and magnitude of large winter–spring flow events and in summer low‐flow levels. We were surprised to find that differences in stream flows did not impact growth, body condition, or timing of out‐migration ofO. mykiss. Fish growth was limited in the late summer in these streams (average of 0.02 ± 0.05 mm/d), but was similar across dry and wet years, and so was end‐of‐summer body condition and pool‐specific biomass loss from the beginning to the end of the summer. Similarly,O. mykissmigrated out of tributaries during the last week of March/first week of April regardless of the timing of spring flow events. We suggest that the muted response to inter‐annual hydrologic variability is due to the high quality of habitat provided by these unimpaired, groundwater‐fed tributaries. Similar streams that are likely to maintain cool temperatures and sufficient base flows, even in the driest years, should be a high priority for conservation and restoration efforts.

    

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5. Warmer Winters Increase the Biomass of Phytoplankton in a Large Floodplain River

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG006135  

   Jankowski, Kathi Jo ; Houser, Jeffrey N. ; Scheuerell, Mark D. ; Smits, Adrianne P. ( September 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Winters are changing rapidly across the globe but the implications for aquatic productivity and food webs are not well understood. In addition, the degree to which winter dynamics in aquatic systems respond to large‐scale climate versus ecosystem‐level factors is unclear but important for understanding and managing potential changes. We used a unique winter data set from the Upper Mississippi River System to explore spatial and temporal patterns in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophylla, CHL) and associated environmental covariates across 25 years and ∼1,500 river km. To assess the role of regional climate versus site‐specific drivers of winter CHL, we evaluated whether there were coherent long‐term CHL dynamics from north to south and across lotic‐lentic areas. We then estimated the degree to which these patterns were associated with climate variability (i.e., the Multivariate El Nino‐Southern Oscillation Index), winter severity (freezing degree days), river discharge, or site‐specific environmental variables (ice depth, snow depth, and nutrient concentrations). We found that winter CHL was typically highest in ice‐free reaches and backwater lakes, occasionally exceeding summer values. We did not find highly synchronous CHL dynamics across the basin, but instead show that temporal trends were independent among river reaches and lotic‐lentic areas of the river. Moreover, after accounting for these spatial dynamics, we found that CHL was most responsive to winter air temperature, being consistently higher in years with warmer winters across the basin. These results indicate that although productivity dynamics are highly dynamic within large river ecosystems, changes in the duration and severity of winter may uniformly increase wintertime productivity.

    

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