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1. Autocyclic (avulsion‐induced) base‐level change, its upstream and downstream controls, and effects on floodbasin sedimentation: The 1870s avulsion of the Saskatchewan River, Cumberland Marshes, Canada

   https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5249  

   Morozova, Galina S. ( November 2021 , Earth Surface Processes and Landforms)

   This study examines centennial‐scale hydrological and sedimentological effects of floodplain inundation by avulsion and its upstream and downstream controls. The 1870s avulsion in Cumberland Marshes diverted the Saskatchewan River flow towards Cumberland Lake, a local base level. It invaded a poorly drained sub‐basin of Cumberland Marshes floodplain linked to the parent Saskatchewan River by two small outlets in the resistant substrate. The rapid increase in inflow (~5× on average) during the earlier stages of the avulsion resulted in the base‐level rise and floodplain inundation by the avulsion lake. Since the early 20th century, the forced regression of the avulsion lake occurred, caused by ~5× outlet channel enlargement by ‘hungry‐water’ outflows, whereas the mean lake inflows experienced little change. The avulsion lake served as an effective sediment trap and was filled by predominantly progradational sandy and silty avulsion deposits up to 3–4 m thick, covering about 700 km². Elsewhere, fluviodeltaic settings with ‘negative relief’ and limited hydrologic connectivity with the rest of the floodplain may be prone to avulsion lakes that form if the rates of inflow increased by avulsion exceed the rates of outflow. Avulsion lakes can last for ~100 years or more before they drain and/or become filled by overbank sediments. On well‐drained floodplains, inundations by avulsions are expected to be short‐term and result in little progradational deposition. This study demonstrates that in some local hydrographic basins, base level becomes a variable of an evolving avulsion rather than its fixed external control. Although avulsion‐induced base‐level changes are short‐lived, they affect 10²–10³ km²of a floodplain and occur rapidly, accompanied by high aggradation rates.

    

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2. Rivers in reverse: Upstream-migrating dechannelization and flooding cause avulsions on fluvial fans

   https://doi.org/10.1130/G49318.1  

   Edmonds, Douglas A. ; Martin, Harrison K. ; Valenza, Jeffery M. ; Henson, Riley ; Weissmann, Gary S. ; Miltenberger, Keely ; Mans, Wade ; Moore, Jason R. ; Slingerland, Rudy L. ; Gibling, Martin R. ; et al ( January 2022 , Geology)

   Abstract The process of river avulsion builds floodplains and fills alluvial basins. We report on a new style of river avulsion identified in the Landsat satellite record. We found 69 examples of retrogradational avulsions on rivers of densely forested fluvial fans in the Andean and New Guinean alluvial basins. Retrogradational avulsions are initiated by a channel blockage, e.g., a logjam, that fills the channel with sediment and forces water overbank (dechannelization), which creates a chevron-shaped flooding pattern. Dechannelization waves travel upstream at a median rate of 387 m/yr and last on average for 13 yr; many rivers show multiple dechannelizing events on the same reach. Dechannelization ends and the avulsion is complete when the river finds a new flow path. We simulate upstream-migrating dechannelization with a one-dimensional morphodynamic model for open channel flow. Observations are consistent with model results and show that channel blockages can cause dechannelization on steep (10−2 to 10−3), low-discharge (~101 m3 s−1) rivers. This illustrates a new style of floodplain sedimentation that is unaccounted for in ecologic and stratigraphic models. 

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3. Climate‐Change Controls on River Delta Avulsion Location and Frequency

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005950  

   Chadwick, A. J. ; Lamb, M. P. ( June 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   Coastal rivers that build deltas undergo repeated avulsion events—that is, abrupt changes in river course—which we need to understand to predict land building and flood hazards in coastal landscapes. Climate change can impact water discharge, flood frequency, sediment supply, and sea level, all of which could impact avulsion location and frequency. Here we present results from quasi‐2D morphodynamic simulations of repeated delta‐lobe construction and avulsion to explore how avulsion location and frequency are affected by changes in relative sea level, sediment supply, and flood regime. Model results indicate that relative sea‐level rise drives more frequent avulsions that occur at a distance from the shoreline set by backwater hydrodynamics. Reducing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity has little impact on deltaic avulsions, because, despite incision in the upstream trunk channel, deltas can still aggrade as a result of progradation. However, increasing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity can shift avulsions upstream of the backwater zone because aggradation in the trunk channel outpaces progradation‐induced delta aggradation. Increasing frequency of overbank floods causes less frequent avulsions because floods scour the riverbed within the backwater zone, slowing net aggradation rates. Results provide a framework to assess upstream and downstream controls on avulsion patterns over glacial‐interglacial cycles, and the impact of land use and anthropogenic climate change on deltas.

    

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4. Modeling Deltaic Lobe‐Building Cycles and Channel Avulsions for the Yellow River Delta, China

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005220  

   Moodie, Andrew J. ; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A. ; Ma, Hongbo ; Carlson, Brandee N. ; Chadwick, Austin J. ; Lamb, Michael P. ; Parker, Gary ( November 2019 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   River deltas grow by repeating cycles of lobe development punctuated by channel avulsions, so that over time, lobes amalgamate to produce a composite landform. Existing models have shown that backwater hydrodynamics are important in avulsion dynamics, but the effect of lobe progradation on avulsion frequency and location has yet to be explored. Herein, a quasi‐2‐D numerical model incorporating channel avulsion and lobe development cycles is developed. The model is validated by the well‐constrained case of a prograding lobe on the Yellow River delta, China. It is determined that with lobe progradation, avulsion frequency decreases, and avulsion length increases, relative to conditions where a delta lobe does not prograde. Lobe progradation lowers the channel bed gradient, which results in channel aggradation over the delta topset that is focused farther upstream, shifting the avulsion location upstream. Furthermore, the frequency and location of channel avulsions are sensitive to the threshold in channel bed superelevation that triggers an avulsion. For example, avulsions occur less frequently with a larger superelevation threshold, resulting in greater lobe progradation and avulsions that occur farther upstream. When the delta lobe length prior to avulsion is a moderate fraction of the backwater length (0.3–), the interplay between variable water discharge and lobe progradation together set the avulsion location, and a model capturing both processes is necessary to predict avulsion timing and location. While this study is validated by data from the Yellow River delta, the numerical framework is rooted in physical relationships and can therefore be extended to other deltaic systems.

    

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5. A method to detect abrupt shifts in river channel position using a Landsat‐derived water occurrence record

   https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5472  

   Lee, Dylan B. ; Martin, Harrison K. ; Edmonds, Douglas A. ( September 2022 , Earth Surface Processes and Landforms)

   The lateral migration of river channels is an important control on the evolution of alluvial fans, deltas, and floodplains. Lateral migration consists of both gradual riverbank migration and abrupt shifts in location due to avulsions or cutoffs. Methods exist to measure bank migration, but abrupt shifts in position are rarely considered or are not emphasized. Here we describe a new method using Landsat‐derived water occurrence images that primarily focuses on detecting when a channel has abruptly shifted position, either from avulsion or cutoff. The method does not assume any a priori model of channel geometry or evolution. Within a given area of interest, binary channel images created from the fluvial water occurrence record are stacked through time. Then a channel shift intensity, , is created by estimating the number of possible ending times for fluvial water voxels (a point in three‐dimensional space) in the stacked occurrence record. The number of possible end‐times for fluvial water voxels within a given region of the occurrence record reveals the likelihood that a reach of a river underwent an abrupt channel shift during the observation period. We present the results of this analysis for a 194 481 km²region of the Amazonian basin. Follow‐up validation found three avulsions and 270 cutoffs within regions identified by this method. We show that areas above a threshold contain an avulsion or cutoff with high probability. This highlights the method's potential to detect and quantify abrupt channel shifts at the basin scale. The method also successfully distinguishes between abrupt channel movement and complex braiding behaviour. As this method is applicable to any binary water‐masked time series images, future applications of this method have the potential to provide insight into the controls and spatial variance of avulsions and cutoffs across a variety of scales.

    

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