Background: Among the most consequential unknowns of the devastating COVID-19 pandemic are the durability of immunity and time to likely reinfection. There are limited direct data on SARS-CoV-2 long-term immune responses and reinfection. The aim of this study is to use data on the durability of immunity among evolutionarily close coronavirus relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate times to reinfection by a comparative evolutionary analysis of related viruses SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, human coronavirus (HCoV)-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63.
Methods: We conducted phylogenetic analyses of the S, M, and ORF1b genes to reconstruct a maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny of human-infecting coronaviruses. This phylogeny enabled comparative analyses of peak-normalised nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and whole-virus lysate IgG antibody optical density levels, in conjunction with reinfection data on endemic human-infecting coronaviruses. We performed ancestral and descendent states analyses to estimate the expected declines in antibody levels over time, the probabilities of reinfection based on antibody level, and the anticipated times to reinfection after recovery under conditions of endemic transmission for SARS-CoV-2, as well as the other human-infecting coronaviruses.
Findings: We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5-95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5-95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset.
Interpretation: The timeframe for reinfection is fundamental to numerous aspects of public health decision making. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reinfection is likely to become increasingly common. Maintaining public health measures that curb transmission-including among individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2-coupled with persistent efforts to accelerate vaccination worldwide is critical to the prevention of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
Funding: US National Science Foundation.
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Inactivation of Human Coronavirus by FATHHOME’s Dry Sanitizer Device: Rapid and Eco-Friendly Ozone-Based Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2
The pandemic of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 was reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Pertaining to its high transmissibility and wide host adaptability, this unique human coronavirus spread across the planet inflicting 115 million people and causing 2.5 million deaths (as of March 3rd, 2021). Limited or negligible pre-existing immunity to multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants has resulted in severe morbidity and mortality worldwide, as well as a record-breaking surge in the use of medical-surgical supplies and personal protective equipment. In response to the global need for effective sterilization techniques, this study evaluated the virucidal efficacy of FATHHOME’s self-contained, ozone-based dry-sanitizing device, by dose and time response assessment. We tested inactivation of human coronavirus, HCoV-OC43, a close genetic model of SARS-CoV-2, on porous (N95 filtering facepiece respirator/FFR) and nonporous (glass) surfaces. We started our assays with 20 ppm-10 min ozone exposure, and effectively reduced 99.8% and 99.9% of virus from glass and N95 FFR surfaces, respectively. Importantly, the virus was completely inactivated, below the detection limit (over 6-log10 reduction) with 25 ppm-15 min ozone exposure on both tested surfaces. As expected, a higher ozone exposure (50 ppm-10 min) resulted in faster inactivation of HCoV-OC43 with 100% inactivation from both the surfaces, with no residual ozone present after completion of the 5-min post exposure recapture cycle and no measurable increase in ambient ozone levels. These results confirmed that FATHHOME’s device is suitable for rapid decontamination of SARS-CoV-2-from worn items, frequently touched items, and PPE including N95 FFRs, face shields, and other personal items.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2036370
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10351336
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Pathogens
- ISSN:
- 2076-0817
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10030339
